NPD April 2007

[TheChefO]

I think Sony would surely do well to reduce the PS3 from the current $599 US to $449. Also, I think that the timming of this reduction would be critical. The best time to do it would be the week that Heavenly Sword, Home and Warhwak come out...which also happens to be the timeframe for Halo3.

I think doing would create a huge surge in sales as people would not only have a significant price reduction but amazing software to go along with it (and more coming later in the year).

Agreed.

Though, I doubt Sony would want to do this at the same week Halo3 is launched. A week or so prior would be a good way to steal some thunder but Halo3 will be pretty significant regardless and I'm not sure if that would help Sony's cause more than hurt it.

As for the amazing software, Heavenly sword could move boxes... the others, not so much.

Honestly at this point I'm thinking a $400 60GB PS3 isn't out of the question. While this price is expensive, it is shown to be a pricepoint which consumers can accept (see xb360 sales the past 1.5 years).

 

[RobertR1]

I think Sony would surely do well to reduce the PS3 from the current $599 US to $449. Also, I think that the timming of this reduction would be critical. The best time to do it would be the week that Heavenly Sword, Home and Warhwak come out...which also happens to be the timeframe for Halo3.

I think doing would create a huge surge in sales as people would not only have a significant price reduction but amazing software to go along with it (and more coming later in the year).

If they cut the price that drastically they'd take on major losses for no guarantee of a massive sales surge. Then they're stuck with this new price point and have to move up the rest of the price cut cycle. Surely, they'd force MS to lower their price a lot also which might sound good but it could have the opposite effect of people getting more 360's with Halo3 coming out.

Think of a Premium console + Halo3 for $299. That'd be a nightmare for Sony to deal with.

MS is the last company you wanna get into the "I can lose more money than you for marketshare" battle.

 

[Butta]

If they cut the price that drastically they'd take on major losses for no guarantee of a massive sales surge. Then they're stuck with this new price point and have to move up the rest of the price cut cycle. Surely, they'd force MS to lower their price a lot also which might sound good but it could have the opposite effect of people getting more 360's with Halo3 coming out.

Think of a Premium console + Halo3 for $299. That'd be a nightmare for Sony to deal with.

MS is the last company you wanna get into the "I can lose more money than you for marketshare" battle.

Couldn't say that I agree with you... Microsoft will never include Halo 3 as a bundled game and if they did I doubt they would be that quick to react (as long as Sony does not announce a price drop far in advance). As far as price drop to $299 would be possible for MS, however, I think that most people interested in buying a PS3 that have not done so don't care about the 360 as they are interested in Sony product and exclusives... and cannot justify purchase at the current price point.

I would also not be surprised if Halo3 ends up not having the impact that MS is hoping for as it seems to lack on innovation and wow factor that the excellent Gears of War had in spades.

 

[jb]

I would also not be surprised if Halo3 ends up not having the impact that MS is hoping for as it seems to lack on innovation and wow factor that the excellent Gears of War had in spades.

Oh I would be willing to take that bet and I hardly gamble Judging by the buz the beta has created, I am sure it will do very well it its own right. It probably will not move as many consoles but thats due to the time of the year as Gears hit in time for the Holiday season...

 

[Paul_G]

Oh I would be willing to take that bet and I hardly gamble Judging by the buz the beta has created, I am sure it will do very well it its own right. It probably will not move as many consoles but thats due to the time of the year as Gears hit in time for the Holiday season...

It likely won't shift too many consoles also because of the price. Halo 2 is credited with really boosting the xbox into the position the brand has now. However the cost of entry was significantly lower than Halo 3. Nevertheless I do agree, I would take that bet too.

 

[Butta]

It likely won't shift too many consoles also because of the price. Halo 2 is credited with really boosting the xbox into the position the brand has now. However the cost of entry was significantly lower than Halo 3. Nevertheless I do agree, I would take that bet too.

Yeah but, if the game is not everything it is cracked up to be on the innovation / presentation side it may get docked on its review scores. Although no doubt Halo 3 will sell well the week it is released... if it does not live up to expectations steam will quickly die for this product and sales will slow down quickly. Expectations are high and from what I have seen it looks like more of the same. Is that still good enough given Gears?

 

[TheChefO]

Expectations are high and from what I have seen it looks like more of the same. Is that still good enough given Gears?

That's the thing. We haven't seen much. All we've seen are multiplayer beta graphics. The good thing about this approach is it has lowered the visual bar a bit so people aren't expecting better than Gears class graphics. The bad thing is it may have lowered the bar too much for some people which may have been on the fence with Halo3/xb360.

Mail-in-Rebate:
Regarding the ps3/xb360 price, both companies could react quickly and limit the red ink by having mail in rebates for a set period of time to guage response and limit losses.

 

[Butta]

Something I just noticed looking at the release date calendars for both PS3 and 360. These are the exclusives (that matter) on both sides for Q1 2008:

360:
None

PS3:
Killzone2
Little Big Planet
Metal Gear Solid 4
Gran Turismo 5

WTF!!!
I expect there will be some sort of anounced releases for 360 at E3 or else this makes no sense...

 

[zed]

WRT halo3 (which will sell bucketloads) though ill point out, as has been proven qualityreviews != sales (ie it doesnt matter if it doesnt live up to expectations)

any other huge sellers this year ( + i mean huge ie at least 5million+),
ok we have GTA4 obviously + halo3 what else?

 

[Arwin]

Something I just noticed looking at the release date calendars for both PS3 and 360. These are the exclusives (that matter) on both sides for Q1 2008:

360:
None

PS3:
Killzone2
Little Big Planet
Metal Gear Solid 4
Gran Turismo 5

WTF!!!
I expect there will be some sort of anounced releases for 360 at E3 or else this makes no sense...

Ehm. Q1 2008 at this point is still rather far away. Also, most of these titles already have their 360 'exclusive' counterpart either announced for a different period, or already out (think Halo 3 vs Killzone 2, Forza 2 vs GT5, Splinter Cell: Conviction vs MGS4, and, say, Viva Pinata vs Little Big Planet - these are just wild stabs at linking these titles, but you get the point)

That said, I do think PS3 is looking at some hot releases from July onwards ...

 

[aselto]

WRT halo3 (which will sell bucketloads) though ill point out, as has been proven qualityreviews != sales (ie it doesnt matter if it doesnt live up to expectations)

any other huge sellers this year ( + i mean huge ie at least 5million+),
ok we have GTA4 obviously + halo3 what else?

madden, super smash bro brawl, mario galaxy.
I'd like to add that Halo 3 will probably be very quality game.

360S3:
Killzone2
Little Big Planet
Metal Gear Solid 4
Gran Turismo 5

LBP and MGS4 are scheduled for this year release I believe. KZ2 and GT5 are rather unknown at this point.

 

[infinity4]

Alan Wake is most likely to come out in 2008 and is console exclusive to the Xbox 360 as well.

does anyone think that PGR4 should come out in 2008 as there is too short gap between FM2 and PGR4 leading to cannabilising between those two, when we don't even know when GT5 is coming (hopefully 2008 :smile

 

[gokickrocks]

LBP and MGS4 are scheduled for this year release I believe. KZ2 and GT5 are rather unknown at this point.

iirc, kojima said mgs4 will not make it this year and that it was someone else (cant remember who off the top of my head) that said it would

 

[Diamond.G]

iirc, kojima said mgs4 will not make it this year and that it was someone else (cant remember who off the top of my head) that said it would

IIRC he said Raiden mentioned it, not him.

 

[ninzel]

When I look at the game lineup of the PS2 for the next year I wonder if Sony needs to be in any hurry with the PS3.

 

[NovemberMike]

When I look at the game lineup of the PS2 for the next year I wonder if Sony needs to be in any hurry with the PS3.

Only if they have any intention of staying in the console business for the next five years. The peole buying PS2's are the people who didn't want it until it was $100 and most likely will only buy madden or guitar hero or something. The hardcore gamers, who probably make up around 40% of most games sales will be on next gen pretty soon, and the casuals will be following. These are the last days of the PS2 (remember that the PS1 and SNES were both sold for years after the "next gen" came out, but with only moderate sales).

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Something I just noticed looking at the release date calendars for both PS3 and 360. These are the exclusives (that matter) on both sides for Q1 2008:

360:
None

PS3:
Killzone2
Little Big Planet
Metal Gear Solid 4
Gran Turismo 5

WTF!!!
I expect there will be some sort of anounced releases for 360 at E3 or else this makes no sense...

Your using at best, rather subjective sources for the release dates. Besides, release dates are there to be delayed

(and no way in hell GT5 is coming Q1 2008)

 

[ninzel]

Only if they have any intention of staying in the console business for the next five years. The peole buying PS2's are the people who didn't want it until it was $100 and most likely will only buy madden or guitar hero or something. The hardcore gamers, who probably make up around 40% of most games sales will be on next gen pretty soon, and the casuals will be following. These are the last days of the PS2 (remember that the PS1 and SNES were both sold for years after the "next gen" came out, but with only moderate sales).

Does it matter though when people buy the PS3,as long as in the end they buy them? You say five years,why when business goes on indefinately? It seems to me at least that we have created these artificial and arbitrary time lines as to when a console must sell X numbers of unit's?

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Does it matter though when people buy the PS3,as long as in the end they buy them? You say five years,why when business goes on indefinately? It seems to me at least that we have created these artificial and arbitrary time lines as to when a console must sell X numbers of unit's?

Of course it matters. Even if we disregard the whole finance part, the longer somebody waits to buy a console, the less will the potential earnings from sold games is going to be.

 

[function]

Does it matter though when people buy the PS3,as long as in the end they buy them? You say five years,why when business goes on indefinately? It seems to me at least that we have created these artificial and arbitrary time lines as to when a console must sell X numbers of unit's?

The Dreamcast isn't dead, it's just resting until people start buying it.