These investment groups tend to do something like a random sampling of stores to see how many units they say they'll have available. A lot of times they end up calling and asking some random employee or store manager how many of something they have or will be getting. I'm not a statistical wizard by any means, but it's pretty obvious how that methodology could go wrong. It's possible they do something very sophisticated, or have ways of getting information directly from MS, Sony. It would be interesting if we could see more details from the investors note.
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These investment groups tend to do something like a random sampling of stores to see how many units they say they'll have available. A lot of times they end up calling and asking some random employee or store manager how many of something they have or will be getting. I'm not a statistical wizard by any means, but it's pretty obvious how that methodology could go wrong. It's possible they do something very sophisticated, or have ways of getting information directly from MS, Sony. It would be interesting if we could see more details from the investors note.
Well the article is really saying three things, and two of them have zero supporting data.
1. XBO is gaining momentum against PS4 since the stumbles at E3. They don't quantify what momentum is in any way (twitter, preorders, amazon rankings?) nor with any sort of data or metric.
2. MS may have 3x the amount of consoles available at launch compared to PS4, based on their supply chain reports.
3. While they don't believe price factors heavily into console launch purchasing, MS is working with retailers to lessen the gap of $100 between the XBO and PS4. What exactly does this mean? Sales on launch day? Free game bundles? XBL cards?
To be fair the article is selectively quoting from a note that was given out to investors by an investment firm. There could have been a lot of details included that were not mentioned in the article.
True research firms that sell information to investors base their analysis on real supporting data, otherwise it would be worthless. I just wondering if the selective quotes are put in a context to be enticing to their audience instead of the original spirit of it. Would be interesting to see the report, as you say.
I take that to mean the cost delta is due to the BOM delta's between PS4 and XBOX One and MS are working on the downstream suppliers to improve their costs. Whether those costs savings are passed on to the end customers or when is another matter.
Ok, I've always thought that "channel" was a downstream term to represent retailers of the final product and "chain" was the upstream component that included parts suppliers and manufacturing. If they are interchangeable, then I agree what you say makes more sense than retail incentives at launch.
EDIT:what is a downstream supplier?
http://news.xbox.com/2013/07/xbox-one-game-creators-are-using-xbox-one
talks about smart screen and Kinect stuff.
talks about smart screen and Kinect stuff.
While I'm wary of neogaf style "my brothers cousins best friend works at Gamestop and he said PS4 has 200 times as many units as Xbox!!!111" reports, there is one source of assumedly semi hard unit pre order data, and that is Amazon's year to date 2013 charts. PS4 is 3rd and XBO is 6th there (launch day editions for both). Which basically says to me although the gap may not be as great as advertised, indeed PS4 launch day has been preordered more/has more supply at Amazon, which is a pretty major retailer.
Well, there's no sport more watched in the United States than the NFL. Quite a big coup really. MS does need to get FIFA in Europe to get a huge boost there.
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I'd put Amazon's best seller chart right there with random guess for accuracy, especially when they are just listing preorders.
Exactly. Amazon doesn't take money for their preorders. Until the exchange happens its just a placeholder number and one among many at that.
Considering they stopped accepting preorders for both, it's enough to tell us the PS4 allocation was larger. And they actually just reopened Launch Day bundle preorders for the PS4, so the PS4 advantage is only growing.
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Well, i would disagree, since that's pretty much factually incorrect
At the least you have to put a valid cc in and go to some trouble even to preorder. and if you do not cancel before it ships, it is going to ship and you are going to be charged for it.
It's one of the few sources of open facing public sales data-ish we have, there's a reason it's often referenced (though i agree it should be eaten with some salt, all a matter of degree)
i guess you're suggesting a vast amount of the amazon preorders will be canceled later? i mean, that doesn't pass the smell test.
hesido
Regular
Still, it tells you about allocation, tho 100% of it may not necessarily translate into sales.
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Well, i would disagree, since that's pretty much factually incorrect
At the least you have to put a valid cc in and go to some trouble even to preorder. and if you do not cancel before it ships, it is going to ship and you are going to be charged for it.
It's one of the few sources of open facing public sales data-ish we have, there's a reason it's often referenced (though i agree it should be eaten with some salt, all a matter of degree)
i guess you're suggesting a vast amount of the amazon preorders will be canceled later? i mean, that doesn't pass the smell test.
If you already have an account, you click the pre-order button. Anytime before it ships, you click the cancel order button. Not exactly a challenge. I'm pretty sure they'll even send you a notification when they actually have a shipping date, they also might send you a notification that the item has become unavailable even if you have already pre-ordered.
And for the record in Amazon Canada's bestseller list... Xbox One is 4th and the ps4 is 13th. (The Ouya is #1.)
Not really. It tells you about Amazon's expectation of allocation. How many they actually have come launch day might well be different. These units haven't been built yet for the most part, they aren't sitting in a warehouse waiting to be shipped. The EB near me had ~140 xbox360 pre-orders... they got around 40 actual units on launch day. I know people who pre-ordered and were getting their units in January/February.
So Xbox360 sold better in 2012 US in spite of not being #1 on Amazon.
PixelatedLeaf
Newcomer
Are you looking at the correct chart?
#1 PS4
#7 XB1
The same pattern is repeated elsewhere (UK, Germany, France).
Devious
Regular
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