JF_Aidan_Pryde
Regular
PC-Engine said:
What is this BS personal insult mixed in style of posting? Mods, would you ban this poster already? Thank you.
Zig&Zag: Now Sony management change, layoffs
- Thread starter Acert93
- Start date
What is this BS personal insult mixed in style of posting? Mods, would you ban this poster already? Thank you.
As bullish as I am about the Cell for gaming, I'm skeptical about the Cell for CE.
Yes the vision they have is of multiple Cell-enabled devices contributing idle resources to enhance performance and functionality. But this kind of transparent, scalable parallelism seems to be like one of those CS concepts that people forecast for a long time but never comes to pass.
Examples would include the supposed third-wave of computing where we all transition to PDAs or other mobile devices and computing becomes pervasive in our lives throughout the day (the previous waves would be first mainframe and other large systems, then the move towards personal computers). Or how about going from personal computers to thin clients because the network is the computer (didn't work out too well for Sun). Or platform-agnosticism provided by Java. Computer scientists have been coming up with these new paradigms for decades but few come to pass.
Now remember that when the EE was introduced, it was also accompanied with a lot of hype about how dramatic a change it would make to electronics products. The only uses of the EE in CE products are in a handful of TVs and the ill-fated PSX where the EE is used to generate on-screen displays for the UI. They're not being used AFAIK for something fancy like decoding MPEG streams or doing fancy image processing.
Already, companies like Sigma and Broadcom were at least close to sampling ASICs to decode H.264 AVC and VC-1 content, as well as process all the new audio codecs expected to be used in next-generation media players. These chips would presumably use a fraction of the silicon of the 1:8 Cell and be relatively cheap.
However, Sony doesn't seem to use third-party media processor chips. While Panasonic DVD players or Samsung DLPs are using Sage-Faroudja silicon, Sony seems to prefer to roll their own and give them monikers like Digital Reality Creation and MID.
Whether Sony takes this route because of cost efficiencies or product differentiation is unknown. As in the case of the PSP, they seem to be able to produce seemingly expensive chips like the Broadband Engine in the PSP and still deliver at surprising price levels. Of course, their CE products at least start out with a price premium.
It's highly unlikely that the Cell in CE products will entice consumers. When they shop for TVs or media players, they look for demonstrable things like image quality, features, design rather than look at paper advantages like the potential to do all kinds of image enhancement (what Sony alluded to at E3 with things like Cell Storage). Unless Cell-branded CE products can show demonstrable advantages in picture quality that other CE products can't match, I think most CE consumers will be indifferent to whether the internal components represent the pinnacle of CPU design.
Yes the vision they have is of multiple Cell-enabled devices contributing idle resources to enhance performance and functionality. But this kind of transparent, scalable parallelism seems to be like one of those CS concepts that people forecast for a long time but never comes to pass.
Examples would include the supposed third-wave of computing where we all transition to PDAs or other mobile devices and computing becomes pervasive in our lives throughout the day (the previous waves would be first mainframe and other large systems, then the move towards personal computers). Or how about going from personal computers to thin clients because the network is the computer (didn't work out too well for Sun). Or platform-agnosticism provided by Java. Computer scientists have been coming up with these new paradigms for decades but few come to pass.
Now remember that when the EE was introduced, it was also accompanied with a lot of hype about how dramatic a change it would make to electronics products. The only uses of the EE in CE products are in a handful of TVs and the ill-fated PSX where the EE is used to generate on-screen displays for the UI. They're not being used AFAIK for something fancy like decoding MPEG streams or doing fancy image processing.
Already, companies like Sigma and Broadcom were at least close to sampling ASICs to decode H.264 AVC and VC-1 content, as well as process all the new audio codecs expected to be used in next-generation media players. These chips would presumably use a fraction of the silicon of the 1:8 Cell and be relatively cheap.
However, Sony doesn't seem to use third-party media processor chips. While Panasonic DVD players or Samsung DLPs are using Sage-Faroudja silicon, Sony seems to prefer to roll their own and give them monikers like Digital Reality Creation and MID.
Whether Sony takes this route because of cost efficiencies or product differentiation is unknown. As in the case of the PSP, they seem to be able to produce seemingly expensive chips like the Broadband Engine in the PSP and still deliver at surprising price levels. Of course, their CE products at least start out with a price premium.
It's highly unlikely that the Cell in CE products will entice consumers. When they shop for TVs or media players, they look for demonstrable things like image quality, features, design rather than look at paper advantages like the potential to do all kinds of image enhancement (what Sony alluded to at E3 with things like Cell Storage). Unless Cell-branded CE products can show demonstrable advantages in picture quality that other CE products can't match, I think most CE consumers will be indifferent to whether the internal components represent the pinnacle of CPU design.
Though these things may not have come to pass as quickly as some experts anticipated, I don't think anyone can confidently say it'll never happen. In the main there's been technical bottlenecks preventing technology. eg. In EE I think Ken had a vision (that shared by Cell) but the reality was the tech level of humanity just wasn't up to it. Cell represents another attempt at the same goal. Maybe it'll hit, maybe it'll miss. But it seems a significant step in the right direction on paper.wco81 said:
And as for the third-wave of computing we're definitely halfway there with mobile phones becoming all and sundry devices + portable media players + GPS systems etc. No-one's quite managed to consolidate them all into a single perfect device but sooner or later it's got to be a certainty. I'm shocked how dependant people are on portable technologies already and it's only really taken off this past 5 with pretty basic tech. If in 20 years time 1st world societies don't have a very strong presence of a portable personal computing device I'll be very shocked. And likewise in 20 years time I'll be very shocked if Cell or something similar hasn't managed to create a uniform programmable hardware base for accomplishing electronic tasks and sharing resources.
Shifty Geezer said:
Does anyone else feel that this is another example of the differences between the approaches of MS and Sony, both in the console gaming and other spaces?
I have this overall perception that MS tends to ask customers (i.e. 'gather requirements' ) what they want and then goes off and designs the best version of that. OTOH, it seems Sony is always telling customers what they NEED and uses marketing to make what theyve built BECOME the customers needs.
I dont have a list of examples beyond the obvious Minidisc/memory stick stuff, but thats just the perception thats been built over time.
J
Not saying these things won't happen. But they've been talking about it for 10-15 years. If they keep saying it for long enough, it probably will happen.
Cell phones are ubiquitous and they're becoming more complicated devices. But the bulk of them are basic and people consistently say they're not interested in the rich media features, just more reliable voice.
Certainly things like Blackberries and iPods have hit a chord with some segment of the market. But these are application-specific devices (as are phones), not things which are meant to replicate or replace computers. In fact, a lot of portable devices work better in a complementary fashion with PCs than as standalone devices.
Remember those old AT&T commercials about 5-10 years ago where they promised things like people doing "work" from a beach through a portable tablet? Well it turns out it took good old laptops and the ubiquity of Wifi to more or less deliver on that promise and AT&T wasn't involved at all (even though they at the time owned some pen computing startups).
In one sense, digital appliances have started to proliferate (market analysts for example are keen to point out that only 1% of the population has iPods or digital audio players). But these are application-specific things like phones or digital cameras.
Maybe that's a lesson that the Cell will succeed in application-specific products like game consoles rather than in every other kind of digital appliance or CE products.
Cell phones are ubiquitous and they're becoming more complicated devices. But the bulk of them are basic and people consistently say they're not interested in the rich media features, just more reliable voice.
Certainly things like Blackberries and iPods have hit a chord with some segment of the market. But these are application-specific devices (as are phones), not things which are meant to replicate or replace computers. In fact, a lot of portable devices work better in a complementary fashion with PCs than as standalone devices.
Remember those old AT&T commercials about 5-10 years ago where they promised things like people doing "work" from a beach through a portable tablet? Well it turns out it took good old laptops and the ubiquity of Wifi to more or less deliver on that promise and AT&T wasn't involved at all (even though they at the time owned some pen computing startups).
In one sense, digital appliances have started to proliferate (market analysts for example are keen to point out that only 1% of the population has iPods or digital audio players). But these are application-specific things like phones or digital cameras.
Maybe that's a lesson that the Cell will succeed in application-specific products like game consoles rather than in every other kind of digital appliance or CE products.
one said:
Minidisc and memory stick were two formats that were proprietary to Sony and provided no benefit to the customer. If there were benefits to the customer, they werent benefits that were important to the user experience.
There were flash memory formats that were superior to memory stick when it was released both in terms of cost and capacity, yet Sony chose to introduce this new format anyway instead of utilizing and of the existing ones.
I'm sure if you would ahve asked customers which they would have preferred:
1. An inexpensive, existing flash format that would be interchangeable with other flash devices you may own.
2. A new propriietary foramt that will be more pricey per MB and will ONLY work in Sony devices.
...
Same thing with minidisc. Sony paid the price dearly for this because instead of benefitting from the MP3 boom by selling a flash device based on a more ubiquitous flash format or an HD based player, they stuck to the MD format and spent most of the wave on the sidelines. An event that cost a few Sony execs their jobs.
From working with Microsoft and their relationship managers, they are always trying to understand exactly where our users will be in the coming years. They take our feedback and actually roll it up into requirements. We've actually seen some of our concerns and issues make it into their products (of course it wasnt just my company that did this, there was likely a much larger groundswell at work there).
I think the thing with MS is, being in the software business, they HAVE to operate this way becasue its intrinsic to software development. "Gathering requirements" is the starting point for any development effort so it seems theyve grown using that model in all their businesses. Unfortunately while it seems obvious to some that asking your customer what they want should be #1 (or at least 1A), for some reason ive been a lot places where it isnt obvious to everyone. I cant see how Sony comes up with the MD or memory stick if they btohered to ask their customers. Or worse, did ask, but just didnt care.
J
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rose tinted vision maybe...
I believe the MiniDisc were aimed at replacing the audio tape ... ( They competed more with phillips's DCC than flash memory/mp3 players )
The 'advantage' of a minidisc was that each disc was extremely cheap compared to the equiv. memory card.. but the convenience of the small solid state memory was much better..
Memory stick was just another player in the camera/market - your comment is a bit like telling Microsoft not to bother with a console as there is estabilished technology out there...
( My problem with Minidisc wasn't the disc format - or even the Atrac/mp3 issue... The software tools on PC often let things down )
I believe the MiniDisc were aimed at replacing the audio tape ... ( They competed more with phillips's DCC than flash memory/mp3 players )
The 'advantage' of a minidisc was that each disc was extremely cheap compared to the equiv. memory card.. but the convenience of the small solid state memory was much better..
Memory stick was just another player in the camera/market - your comment is a bit like telling Microsoft not to bother with a console as there is estabilished technology out there...
( My problem with Minidisc wasn't the disc format - or even the Atrac/mp3 issue... The software tools on PC often let things down )
No benefit... in 1992?expletive said:
It's small, it's rewritable, it's digital, and it's more shock-proof than a CD player.Oh really? Haven't you heard horror stories about MS product support for servers? Slow patching? Microsoft can ship sh!t products with plenty of bugs, which can be in no way tolerated in embedded consumer products.expletive said:
Are you kidding? Sony has been working with ILM for recent Star Wars movies. No business can work without "gathering requirements" of customers, period.expletive said:
I think MS is known more for marketing requirements driven, especially in products like Office where they do focus groups to refine the feature set between releases. They draw on their big customers a lot since they need these big customers to upgrade.
Sony on the other hand has always had a R&D development focus where they follow the technology. For instance, there was no wide customer requirement for a product like the CD (or for that matter MD) before they were introduced to the market. The CD obviously succeeded because customers saw advantages over previous formats. The MD didn't succeed, at least globally. Similarly, there was no great clamor for the DVD before it came out but once it did, adoption took off.
You can't always do product development based on market expectations or limited knowledge of what's possible.
People chide Sony for being proprietary but they've probably invested more over the years in R&D. But their strategy is to offer differentiation at a premium, always staying ahead of the commoditization curve. It worked with the Trinitron and for awhile with the Walkman but it obviously didn't work with the Memory Stick.
Another company which bucks the trend of focus groups is Apple. Or rather, their focus group is limited to one man. So far, it's really worked on one Apple product line (but a series of models).
Sony on the other hand has always had a R&D development focus where they follow the technology. For instance, there was no wide customer requirement for a product like the CD (or for that matter MD) before they were introduced to the market. The CD obviously succeeded because customers saw advantages over previous formats. The MD didn't succeed, at least globally. Similarly, there was no great clamor for the DVD before it came out but once it did, adoption took off.
You can't always do product development based on market expectations or limited knowledge of what's possible.
People chide Sony for being proprietary but they've probably invested more over the years in R&D. But their strategy is to offer differentiation at a premium, always staying ahead of the commoditization curve. It worked with the Trinitron and for awhile with the Walkman but it obviously didn't work with the Memory Stick.
Another company which bucks the trend of focus groups is Apple. Or rather, their focus group is limited to one man. So far, it's really worked on one Apple product line (but a series of models).
You need a mix, but I think Sony definitely does appreciate that people aren't always going to know what they want before they see it. Innovation is often about "push". And Sony isn't afraid to try that, even when it doesn't always work. But it has worked very well for them too (e.g. the walkman, eyetoy - did anyone ask for these?).
No large company is daft enough to release into the world a product without having scoped out public perception through focus groups and research agencies. A $100,000 on market research is nothing compared to the losses of a bombed product. Yu have ideas and try them out. Of course focus groups aren't infallable, and it's amazing what junk manages to pass through with thumbs up from the focus groups!wco81 said:
Microsoft obviously has a lot of distinguished CS researchers on its payroll. Not sure what has come out of all this however. The tablet PC, a pet project of Gates, really hasn't taken off. Nor has Media Center Edition, although they will continue to emphasize it, to complement the X360 and as a Vista SKU. Nor did Portable Media Center.
Product initiatives like IPTV and their phone and PDA OSes do seem designed to fill a perceived market need. IOW, the technology didn't lead to these products, it was just to jump into new markets and possible sources of revenues.
It was interesting that in the wake of E3, MS trotted out people from its Advanced Technology Group to explain the advantages of the X360 vis a vis PS3. Not sure if this ATG is part of their pure research arm or more of a product development organization.
But I seem to recall that they showcased how their pure research people were working on graphics, new kinds of displays, etc.
Product initiatives like IPTV and their phone and PDA OSes do seem designed to fill a perceived market need. IOW, the technology didn't lead to these products, it was just to jump into new markets and possible sources of revenues.
It was interesting that in the wake of E3, MS trotted out people from its Advanced Technology Group to explain the advantages of the X360 vis a vis PS3. Not sure if this ATG is part of their pure research arm or more of a product development organization.
But I seem to recall that they showcased how their pure research people were working on graphics, new kinds of displays, etc.
Some of these products are speculative, both to test the waters and to start building a name. A lot of this tech might be 10 years from mainstream, but setting it up now sets the building blocks to gradually work up to stronger brand when the mainstream starts to think about it.wco81 said:
Though I will add that a lot of these technologies seem to ignore the fact that most people aren't rich! Most people haven't much money left over from paying for house, food, transport, clothes, kids upkeep and such.
mckmas8808
Legend
wco81 said:
Not to take a cheap shot at you but I hear that Pro duo sticks are selling out everywhere now after the PSP came out. Point being maybe Sony memory stick will look a little better in the long run. Maybe not better than the others, but it could be within the competition.
Well when you're as rich as Microsoft, they can make bets on everything.
Regarding focus groups, I'm sure Apple has marketing and they do focus groups. But look at how MS is pushing hard for portable video and media players (they're pushing for managed copies or legalized rips of HD-DVDs for home media servers and presumably portable video players as well). Yet at the same time, Jobs has resisted calls from Wall Street to try to repeat the iPod for some kind of video player/video download service.
At least for the time being, since rumors are, they're working on something along these lines.
But a bunch of other players are pushing portable video players now.
Regarding focus groups, I'm sure Apple has marketing and they do focus groups. But look at how MS is pushing hard for portable video and media players (they're pushing for managed copies or legalized rips of HD-DVDs for home media servers and presumably portable video players as well). Yet at the same time, Jobs has resisted calls from Wall Street to try to repeat the iPod for some kind of video player/video download service.
At least for the time being, since rumors are, they're working on something along these lines.
But a bunch of other players are pushing portable video players now.
mckmas8808 said:
It wont look any better for the consumer unless you own all Sony products.
Also, why, on my Sony DCR-HC90 minidv camcorder, can i not use industry standard hot-show accessories? This includes the ones made by Sony, with the new shoe you must buy Sony hot-shoe acessories.
In the end this is why i was reluctant to get very descriptive regarding this with Sony becuase unless you measure your words carefully youre setting youreself up for flaming.
Also, my original post was more a question than a statement and this is an overall perception that i have, based on a series of non-specific events filed away in my head.
J
