XBox 360 launched in Japan

Word in the industry does not mention pedigree, only a general and increasing state of desperation over building nextgen content. Such a game could easily take years of continous production time... Then again, they certainly enjoy the benefits of launching 6-12 months after MS, but have they started development at the same time, too?

 

Probably. Word of I-8 development was out in December 2004 (who knows how long before that it was actually started), Factor 5 hasn't done anything for ages so one could assume...MoH:A will have been dev'd on a PC and converted to PS3, word of Warhawk PS3 has been rumoured for ages....Fight Night 3 will be out for X360 next month, so they have several months more for PS3 development (FN3 will be more like a FN4 on PS3 was the quote?).

I mean, not all developers are going to have Heavenly Sword like development times (since early 2003?), but 1.5-2years+ is definitely enough to make a quality game. Especially the Sony studios.

I'm not expecting 3-4 AAA games - 1 AAA game and a few great games, along with typical sports lineups, EA, Activision + Ubisoft ports from Xbox360, and lesser third-party titles and you have a very nice launch indeed.

 

Hmm so what are you thinking will be the killer App, Warhawk or MOA?

I've been thinking the NA PS3 launch may be fairly weak considering a large majority of the games will have been released on 360 already. It has the possibility to be one of the least original launches ever, mostly dominated by ports from a competing system.

Even fight night 4 will probably be cross platform when it's released.

What AAA exclusives are you thinking will be there?

I do think the PS3 games will be less rished than 360 since they've had CELL for so long, and a very similar GPU which is also very conventional. 360 has an unconventional gpu, and only a few months of time with the actual hardware, recipe for lackluster results really.

 

there we go again, dont you anything positive to say about the ps3 launch? i see people on this forum who are admittedly like Sony alot but now and then they do give credit to xbox360 where it due.

 

Yeah, I don't get this notion that PS3 devs will have had a longer time simply because the PS3 is out later. It seems counterintuitive to how a console is released (or in terms of comparing one console's release to another's).

.Sis

 

Well, I just want to get on the record as saying that I can't wait for next month's Sony event. The buzz of the Xbox 360 launch is fading and I need a fix for my "anticipation for the next big toy" (or as I prefer to call it, Christmas for Boys Who Refuse to Grow Up).

.Sis

 

I-8. Early build at E3 showed potential. I'm not saying it will be, but the developer is quality so I have faith.

MoH:A will probably be great, but in much the same way CoD2 is. Great, solid, gorgeous but not a killer-app.

Warhawk, which looks amazing (see the in-game video?), is probably the wrong genre to expect a killer app. It may be AAA, but it won't be a killer-app, IMO.

Tekken 6 and UT2007 have the potential if they make launch.

I-8, Warhawk, Lair confirmed and exclusive. You have to assume there will be more announced. The quality and sheer quantity of the titles at launch will put it above most others. It basically has no chance of being a weak launch at this point.

As for unoriginal launches, what would you say about the Xbox360s?
Kameo and Condemned stand out from a list filled with half-assed ports, and sequels sequels sequels.

Yes. Fight Night 3 is going to be released on PS3, but the director has said it will be more like Fight Night 4. Ie. heftily upgraded from Fight Night 3 X360. Whats upgraded, I don't know.

AAA != killer app, thus I believe every title has this potential.

Only when trying to base comparisons of power on release dates. Which we shouldn't do for various reasons (tape-out dates of CPU/GPU and architectural differences primararily).
As a indication of how long they have had the potential to be developing games for on final hardware its a great yardstick.

 

Doesnt this sound eerily similar to X360 fans talking about the 360 launch around July-ish?

Not saying its not going to be a solid lineup and there wont be some great ones nick but youre making lots of assumptions here.

Has there been any gameplay footage of lair or just the tech demo thing?

UT 2007 def not making launch, unless the developer is throwing up a smoke screen.

What's I8? Where's the Fight night dev interview about the ps3 version?

 

Talking about the upcoming PS3 launch is not more than a stack of assumptions, so let's compare what's happened already.

PS2 was released in March 2000 in Japan with Ridge Racer 5, Tekken and other insignificant titles and sold 1,000,000 units in 2 weeks.

Xbox 360 was released in Dec 2005 in Japan with Ridge Racer 6, DOA4 and other insignificant titles and sold 100,000 units in 2 weeks.

 

If I was to be an X360 fan around July (or hell, in November), I would be saying:
"Best fucking launch lineup ever. EVER. PERIOD. Fuck me did you see PDZ? Killer-app."
Add some extreme hyperbole to the above and multiply by 100 and then it would be close.


I've only indicated games which are definitely coming at launch, note they all should be great, give reasons for that, and say that other more traditional PS launch titles will probably be there as well. Not really a leap of faith thing.

I don't expect Lair to be good. I expect it to look good.

Final word on UT2007 is this:

Basically, if PS3 launches in Spring it probably won't be a launch title, otherwise maybe.

I-8 is just a codename, stands for Insomniac 8, or Insomniacs 8th game. Its sceduled to launch with the PS3 and is a first-person shooter. A realtime demonstration was shown at E3 but it was so dark details were lost. No details are known.It looked decent - nothing special, but obviously early:

http://www.1up.com/do/previewPage?cId=3146303&did=1

I think we're off-topic a bit with PS3 launch now, and a lot with its NA launch, but yeah, I just like fighting the (Xfans) assumption that the PS3 launch will be shit when its showing as much potential as the X360s ever shown (which they declare "best ever").

 

Nah theres no way it will be shit, its crazy to even think that. Sony would postpone before it would let a launch full of BAD games get out the door.

I still dont think theres anythign compelling about what youve said but in the end, i dont really think any of these launches deviate from the SOP. It'll have some good ones, it'll have an amped3 (or fantavision for the PS2 fans scoring at home), maybe a killer app, maybe not, (just given the timeframe, next gen expectations, and how rare they are in general).

It will sell through, we'll move on to 2nd gen games, and that's when the real fun begins.

 

No i never made that contention. As a matetr fact I never said this poll was an indication that anyone would actually BUY this game, and I certainly never made teh implication that a presense in this poll gaurantess millions in 'sales'


All I said was they are interested in it. It is on their radar so to speak. I believe this to be a good representation of the japanese gamers interests. With that said, and realising japans console-gaming community number's in the 10's of millions, I feel that ANY game within the top 10 must have millions of peope aware of, and excited for that game.

BD is the 3rd most anticipated next-gen game in japan, topped only by MGS4 and Resident Evil 5!

This poll shows japanese are interested in this game, it has their attention, and therefore it has the potential to make a difference. You can argue hard-numbers all night long(millions, 500k, whatever), they are beside the point, the fact remains this game is stimulating huge interest which was my original point.

Actually, my original point was "is it so hard to imagine this game selling a million copies over the course of a year?" Is it so hard ti imagine? With 30million+ gamers in japan, and #8 on the most wanted list for Famitsu, is it really so hard to believe this game could sell a million copies gradually?

 

To be fair, "the best launch ever" usually had a "could be" in the same sentence, and was spouted at a time when Oblivion/GR:AWF/DOA4/etc., were all launch-day releases, a hope that died a horrible death before launch.

As an Xfan, my only beef with the PS3's launch so far is not being able to preorder a PS3 for it yet...

 

That depends. With such a small number of people voting altogether, that simply isn't big enough to be representative of much at all.
Most of the top 10 games that are in the list fail to make 1M in sales.
Ryu Ga Gotoku was averaging about the same - failed to sell well at all.
Rogue Galaxy was top 3 averaging 1500-200 and won't come close to half a million.
Wanda and the Collusus was in the top 10 for ages
Biohazard 4 and Zelda:WW and MGS3 were all top 3 and none has or will sell a million. Zelda ~800k, Biohazard 4 ~200k on GC, ~400k on PS2 and MGS3 ~800k.
Biohazard 5 and Zelda:TP and MGS4 have each been ahead of very slightly behind for ages now. The chance of any reaching 1million are slim at best.

Just a few examples. These polls mean the game is probably going to do decently, but all of the above are high-profile games on systems with established userbases and didn't manage 1mil, some got 4x as many votes and didn't crack 1/2 million. Theres plenty of others (DMC < 300k despite 1k votes and 20M userbase), etc.

Likewise there are titles which don't rank yet sell well.

Anyway, its hardly huge interest, but what it does say is that there is some interest. Thats important.

Personally I would rather the Xbox360 achieve in Japan so that MS will themselves make more JRPGs and secure (good) exclusives from other companies. New series for a new start in Japan.

Definitely hard to believe.

 

Nah, it started in 2004 with MS touting it as such, and just continued from there. Although if those games had've made it (Oblivion especially), then yeah, what a launch that would've been....

Really? There was this thread about people preordering it:
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26599&highlight=preorder

I don't think I will have to worry about pre-ordering in my country, but I know if I was in NA I would definitely be wanting to preorder ASAP.

 

Sorry, you're right in that you didn't mention sales per se. My point though wasn't sales or whatever, but the idea that this poll is indiciative of the nation.

Actually you said

There weren't hundreds of thousands of votes, and so your estimation that from hundreds of thousands of votes comes millions of interested gamers, doesn't work, because of the limitations of the poll.

The only way to argue this point is empirically, as statiscally you can't guarentee the poll results are representative of the Japanese gaming public. If every game to feature in the top ten goes on to sell a million or more games (or even just lots of games) then you could say 'it'd on there, so based on historical evidence we can expect it to sell well.' I don't think that's the case though. I don't know, so won't comment. As a statistical argument, you can't derive general gaming population's interest from this poll without knowing who makes up the poll's demographic. eg. Do we know that Famitsu is read by all XB/XB360 owning Japanese gamers? Are XB/XB360 owners more likely to vote in their interest for a game than other console owners?

The only reason I'm here arguing is because you raised statistics as a measure (hundreds of thousands of votes)! I'm quite okay with your ideas about how presence in a poll could be indiciative of widescale interest, but I want to be sure this poll is, at least statiscally, not proof of that. If the poll proves this, it has to be through other methods of reasoning than statistics. Your paragraph above ...'believe this to be a good representation...I feel that ANY game...' is a better argument as it's not calling on poll statistics to back it up.

 

No XBOX 360 game, including DOA4 released in the last week, in this week (1/2-1/8) Top 50 ranking at dengeki
http://www.dengekionline.com/soft/ranking/ranking2.htm

 

DS domination. They are "sold out" and have sold ~90-165k this week from initial reports. And software is dominated too (8/10).

Unconfirmed from one source (via GAF):
PSP 132,000
DS 91,000
PS2 80,000
360 7,000

Edited correct info.

 

For those who still care:

PSP 132,757
DS 91,379
PS2 80,886
GBASP 17,443
GC 13,423
GBM 11,818
Xbox360 7,477
GBA 564
Xbox 156

http://www.m-create.com/jpn/s_ranking.html

I thought they stopped tracking the original Xbox, guess not.

Xbox360 sales are...disappointing? But they've sold the majority of their first shipment now IIRC.

 

Roughly 28k a month, right? Better than Xbox, but still way too close to launch and DOA4 release to gauge anything meaningful...