Will MGS4 get 1 million day one sales?

[Blade47167]

Day 1 purchase for me. After the Kojima gameplay trailer I've just been waiting for a pre-order on liongames or familyvideo.

 

[fallguy]

I'll give myself a reprimand...

Okay, I didn't check the source material, but one really shouldn't have to if journalists were even a quarter way decent at doing their jobs. For the record, GI.biz and next-gen.biz both led with the same headline, and didn't provide the actual relevant quote, so I had no reason to doubt two independent, 'professional' business sites as getting the reporting so wrong.

I agree. I blame myself, blame you, and blame them. Mostly them. Not a big deal in all reality, its only a video game. If this was real news involving life/death, then it would matter.

 

[infinity4]

I can't find any of previous games so I chose not to buy one.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

I dont think they hit 1m on day one even with a WW release. Though they will reach 1m pretty fast I suppose.

 

[Acert93]

What games, this generation, have sold 1M copies on their...

Release date?

First week?

First month?

That should put this into perspective.

 

[nintenho]

I think MGS2 owed a lot of it's success to the demo included in ZoE. I heard that more people bought that game for the demo than the actual game.

I think Konami also said there will be a simultaneous worldwide release. The last games would come to Europe last and actually add a new, harder difficulty level (European Extreme) but Konami said they'll include this additional difficulty level in all versions of the game and release worldwide at the same time.

Betanumerical is right, it's one million to BREAK EVEN. so maybe a $50 million dollar budget. I think it's completely doable. I'm sure it'll sell over a million considering they delayed it until after the christmas shopping season and the game's likely to get a lot of marketing and high scores. Most people that have or are getting a PS3 probably know about this game and that it's one of the major PS3 games.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

MGS4 at this time is still pretty much a wild card, it can turn out to be both a disappointment (sales wise, like Ratchet or HS) or a runaway success. Snake Eater sold a lot less copies then the previous episode, so that might indicate interest dropping in the series. PS3's user base is also a fraction of what the PS2 had at MGS3's release.

On the other hand, it's obviously going to be a quality title, making good use of the PS3's capabilities; and it could even become a system seller, solving the problem with the user base for other titles too.

Nevertheless, selling 1 million copies on day 1 is going to be a challenge...

 

[AlNom]

I don't mean to get into a pissing match, but what other titles have the distinction of selling a million copies on the first day? (besides Halo2/3)

Nevertheless, selling 1 million copies on day 1 is going to be a challenge...

 

[nintenho]

well it doesn't sound like the guy is saying it has to sell 1 million copies on day 1. that's a stupid statement. it sounds like he's saying it needs 1 million total sales to break even, which sounds possible.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Some Final Fantasy games did it in the past as far as I know, and I wouldn't be surprised if GTA4 would make it as well. But nintenho is kinda right, Konami guys have never made any such claims, so the thread doesn't really make any sense...

 

[dubyateeeff]

I picked depends on the score. But since this is a GOTY at gamespot... We will have to see...

 

[Acert93]

Some Final Fantasy games did it in the past as far as I know, and I wouldn't be surprised if GTA4 would make it as well. But nintenho is kinda right, Konami guys have never made any such claims, so the thread doesn't really make any sense...

While debunked, it is interesting to discuss the general topic: Which industry franchises have the power to move 1M units in 1 day?

 

[nintenho]

only the cultural icons of videogames so that casuals who turn on their system once in a blue moon get kind of curious at the line of people waiting outside of gamestop and stop in during their lunch break so that the seasonal clerk who is high on cold medicine (it must be the holiday season) can tell the casual how much the game will roxors his soxors.

basically any sequel really.

 

[Skrying]

1M on the first day? Very, very few. Thinking about it, I really don't think MGS4 can do it. Maybe in the first week, but not the first day.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What about aggregate first day sales for internationally aligned launches though? If on average a game launches in Japan, then NA, then Europe, and sales 300,000, 600,000, and 400,000 say, it wouldn't be a conventional Day 1 Million Seller but would be launch aligned.

Snake Eater sold a lot less copies then the previous episode, so that might indicate interest dropping in the series. PS3's user base is also a fraction of what the PS2 had at MGS3's release.

On the whole don't franchises reduce in sales over the life of a console? Less GT4's were sold than GT3. Crash Bandicoot 2 outsold CB3, Kingdom hearts 2 sold less than KH, Tekken 4 sold less than Tekken Tag, and so on. I think fans of a game are more likely to buy into a next-gen suped-up version than a sequel that's 'more of the same', in a bizarre twist to perhaps what people would expect. It seems from the stats of sales that a franchise doesn't gain momentum through a platform's life, but starts at one level and dwindles from there. Or at best, has a mid-life peak and a dwindle as people get bored of sequelitus. This suggests it's important to make a big splash on game 1 if you want to make money from sequels. Uncharted 2 and 3 will be looking at sales lower than what Uncharted makes going by average title performance. Perhaps people naturally avoid titles with a number in them if they haven't played the previous game, making sequels a hard sell to a new audience? Which wouldn't be good for MGS4! They'd do well to change the name to lose the numbering!

 

[shiznit]

Latest vgchartz PS3 install base numbers:
1.45M Japan
2.61M America
2.30M Others

I wonder how many PS3 owners in America are hardcore gamers and not just in need of a blu-ray player, xbox 360 sells more games than PS3 and Wii combined right now and I think that a large part of the hardcore crowd is already lost to Sony. Almost all my friends had a PS2 last gen, now most of them have 360s and a couple Wiis, not ONE has a PS3 (and most of them hated the original xbox) and none of them talk about getting one for MGS4. Many 360 owners will find something else to play until the invitable port comes a few months later. I really don't see a game selling more than 500k in north america on day one with no multiplayer of any kind, even if the american install base is 4mil by then I don't see that many hardcore gamers in that group to drive so many sales.

 

[djskribbles]

360 having better software sales than the PS3 is understandable. if you look at the sales for big name multiplatform titles like AC or COD4, PS3's sales are roughly half of the 360's. now compare the size of their respective user bases -- 6.36 vs 13.72. Wii has a larger WW user base, but imo, 360 has a better software lineup. i think if the PS3's user base was as large as the 360's, it would sell just as much software, as both are targeted more towards hardcore gamers and they buy more software than casual gamers.

 

[joker454]

i think if the PS3's user base was as large as the 360's, it would sell just as much software

Have the software attach rates changed that much? Last I remember it was 5.x games/360 and 3.x games/PS3, which implies that even with the same user base PS3 would still sell less software. My data may be old though, is PS3 up to a 5.x attach rate as well?

 

[AlphaWolf]

Have the software attach rates changed that much? Last I remember it was 5.x games/360 and 3.x games/PS3, which implies that even with the same user base PS3 would still sell less software. My data may be old though, is PS3 up to a 5.x attach rate as well?

The 360 attach rate is still higher (I think its over 7 now), but attach rate doesn't paint the whole picture (attach rate also reflects quantity and quality of titles). The 360 does move more software, but its not that much more than its relative user base on the cross platform titles.

GH3 sold 383k in NA for 360, 105k for ps3. That seems like a huge margin, but that's to almost 7 million 360 owners and only 2 million ps3 owners. That's really only ~10% better when compared to the install base for the 360.

Well I guess I should amend that as I included only the guitar bundle, if you include the game only version the 360 version sold 490k, it does indeed seem to have sold much better on the 360.

 

[Skrying]

Hmm, MGS3 has sold "only" 4 million copies. Do we truly expect that the forth game on a vastly smaller platform to sell 1 million on the first day? Even if it launched worldwide on the same date, I'm not really sure that would happen.