Will MGS4 get 1 million day one sales?

[Shifty Geezer]

Apparently Kojima/Konami are aiming for 1 million day one sales to make the investment in MGS4 worthwhile. While they reach that? Here's an infallible, absolutely, scientific study that will categorically prove yes or no, such is the wonder of modern science!

 

[JPT]

If sony reaches the goal of 11M installed PS3 across the world by march and Konami does a world wide release, why not?

 

[valioso]

day one sales? nah... how many games reach that number?

 

[RobertR1]

I'd say depends on the game quality and marketing behind it.

 

[Arwin]

I think they have a pretty good chance. The title has had enough attention, and it's the final chapter, a grand finale on a new system. I'm pretty sure they won't release it if it isn't really good. The only thing that might kill it is too much hype. 1 million day one is a lot, but I think comparing to Halo 3 on the 360 it should have a good chance, since the game is popular in all three regions and the PS3 by that time could well be at a comparable level as the 360 was when Halo 3 was released.

 

[AlphaWolf]

If they do a simultaneous release its possible.

 

[Jaeyden]

For a day one purchase it's gonna depend on...

1) A demo
2) When it's released and what other titles are released around the same time
3) Preview feedback

 

[iceberg187]

If they do a simultaneous release its possible.

IT is supposed to be one.

 

[Archgamer]

Apparently Kojima/Konami are aiming for 1 million day one sales to make the investment in MGS4 worthwhile.

That's an absolutely ridiculous statement! What's wrong with MGS4 getting 1 million sales in 2+ days?

 

[djskribbles]

considering its the finale and its the first MGS on the PS3, i think it has a shot. but if i had to bet on it, i would say it won't (although i think it will be close).

MG does have a strong following and i think a lot of people are waiting for MGS4 to buy their PS3's, and i also think many owners of the PS3 now, MGS4 was a big reason they bought it.

 

[woundingchaney]

I dont know. With an intended release of Spring they are missing a large sales time given their Western markets (although isnt there a large shopping season during this time in the Eastern market??). To reach a million sales there needs to be a viable advertising campaign to coincide with release, so far nearly all the hype generated for the title revolves in message boards and the internet in general. Then there is the issue of PS3 owners not overly investing in software.

Has any of the MG series ever achieved 1 million day one sales or even one million first week sales??

All in all Im going to say that its possible although I doubt its likely (unless of course they can media blitz the title).

I would like to think it is a day one purchase for me, but I have recently discovered Gamefly and so far it has saved me approx 150 USD, so the title might only live up to rental statis depending on replayability. In other words I voted "I dont know".

With the statement of 1 million day one sales for the investment to be worthwhile should we believe that they may not see a profit even after a million sold??

 

[djskribbles]

according to vgchartz (yeah, not the most reliable source) MGS3 sold over 700k between the US and Japan on launch. MGS2 sold ~442k in Japan alone on launch.

 

[woundingchaney]

according to vgchartz (yeah, not the most reliable source) MGS3 sold over 700k between the US and Japan on launch. MGS2 sold ~442k in Japan alone on launch.

So most likely around 850k - 1 million in the first week. This does put things in a hopeful perspective, but the PS2 had a considerably higher install base at MGS3 launch than the PS3 will at MGS4 launch.

 

[joker454]

according to vgchartz (yeah, not the most reliable source) MGS3 sold over 700k between the US and Japan on launch. MGS2 sold ~442k in Japan alone on launch.

Any idea what the PS2 install base was as the time of MGS2 and MGS3 launches? It may not necessarily correlate since the average age of a game player is older now than it was back then (and hence more likely to have more disposable income) but I'd be curious to know the numbers.

If sony reaches the goal of 11M installed PS3 across the world by march and Konami does a world wide release, why not?

Japan and US numbers are the ones that would matter most no? I don't know much about the European market but what I gather from comments on this forum is that any game where you walk around a world with a gun is considered an fps and hence not popular there. So I figure the Japan and US numbers would matter most.

 

[djskribbles]

i have no idea what the PS2's user base was at the time, but MGS2 was released quite early wasn't it? i don't think the PS2's user base was that big at the time. MGS3 was definitely released later though when the PS2's user base was large. but like i said before, usually the first title of a series released on a new platform usually sells better. MGS2 sold more copies than MGS3 despite having a smaller user base at the time. MGS4 is the finale on a new platform and i think MGS has a strong following. i do think its possible, but again, i don't think it will quite reach 1m.

 

[RobertR1]

The only thing that annoys me about MGS4 is the double dipping for MP. I hope that does not become a trend.

 

[dobwal]

I doubt day one point of sales numbers will be that high. I think shipping 1 million units for release will be relatively easy. I think it can do a 1 million POS figure for a month of sales.

I think GT5 has a real shot at 1 million day one sales while ZK2 has an outside chance.

 

[Acert93]

9 sales down, only 9,999,991 more to go. Go Konami!

 

[dobwal]

Any idea what the PS2 install base was as the time of MGS2 and MGS3 launches? It may not necessarily correlate since the average age of a game player is older now than it was back then (and hence more likely to have more disposable income) but I'd be curious to know the numbers.

Japan and US numbers are the ones that would matter most no? I don't know much about the European market but what I gather from comments on this forum is that any game where you walk around a world with a gun is considered an fps and hence not popular there. So I figure the Japan and US numbers would matter most.

The US and PAL markets has moved more units of the MGS series than japan. I think the last two series have moved the most in the PAL markets.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Any idea what the PS2 install base was as the time of MGS2 and MGS3 launches? It may not necessarily correlate since the average age of a game player is older now than it was back then (and hence more likely to have more disposable income) but I'd be curious to know the numbers.

I'd have to think mgs4 will have a better attach rate than mgs2 and 3 due to the much smaller install base. I believe the ps2 was around 30 million when mgs2 shipped and 75 million for mgs3.

Japan and US numbers are the ones that would matter most no? I don't know much about the European market but what I gather from comments on this forum is that any game where you walk around a world with a gun is considered an fps and hence not popular there. So I figure the Japan and US numbers would matter most.

UK and Canada also tracks decently with US on FPS titles.

After looking around I seriously doubt my previous statement that there is any chance at 1 million in day 1 sales.