It's the same place though where we're viewing it as BD vs its alternatives. Consumers don't have to have a viable alternative for them not to flock to BD, know what I'm sayin? Some of BD adoption will be by default, and some will be by consumers pursuing the best A/V distribution option in terms of quality, but neither of these drivers need combine to a dominant percentage when all is said and done. (And these percentages I don't like associating too much weighting to, because really I do think 10% after this time is pretty good, and if it ends the year closer to 20%, that'll be downright excellent in my view.)
But I want to add that where there's no HD VOD purchase alternative today, 2012 is an eternity away in technology terms, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was by then.
I'm a BD fan, so certainly I myself wish it success to add synergistic longevity to my own purchases thus far (and those I will continue to make), but I also understand that nothing can be taken for granted. The next couple of years are going to see *a lot* of players entering and fighting in the video distribution space. What matters is going to be how many people opt for one of these sources instead of BD; for some people convenience will trump quality, I think we can all agree on that, regardless of whether we can even guess at numbers. And so knowing that, I simply say that the future is unknown.
I just think it's always best to avoid speaking in absolutes when possible, and a line of thought along "BD will reign supreme in 2012" just seems too advance a prediction. For MS going BD, hell I mean obviously I think there are tons of scenarios that warrant it, as that's a point I was trying to make myself as well. But alternative scenarios can take them away from that is just something we also have to acknowledge.
@Eastmen: Am I detecting a theme in your movie purchases?
