why the xbox720 should be using HD-DVD

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For every movie a studio can sell millions of , there are movies that are worth almost nothing. Not only that but as time goes on the older block busters maintain less of their selling power and for every LOTR there is a rush hour trilogy. How many copies of Lord of the Rings does a consumer need ? However if you offer Lord of the Rings in a streaming package yo ucan continue to get money from a person each month because if they want to see lord of the rings more than once they have to keep paying. As if is now if you buy lord of the rings launch day They get $30 from you on bluray. In 4 yeasr if you want to watch it again you don't have to pay anything. If you want to watch it with VOD you eithr have to pay again or have a continuing subscription to it. That subscription they sell you over and over again.


The studios have perfected double dipping. They know exactly when to release a movie and how to market it so people will re-buy the same movie they may have purchased only a year ago. I've purchased Terminator 2 three times!

You're advocating VOD without ownership - pay per view and subscription - correct? PPV is for renters - people who don't want to spend the money to actually buy the movie, so nothing changes there. In a subscription model, however, you have thousands of movies bundled together for a flat monthly fee. This is fine for older movies or movies that don't have blockbuster appeal, since they hardly sell any copies at retail anymore (case in point: netflix streaming service). But for a movies like LOTR, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, etc... these movies by themselves can generate billions of dollars at retail. How can studios leverage that into a subscription service?

Oh and btw, the Rush Hour movies actually did quite well in the theaters and video, why do you think they made 3 of them? :smile:
 
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I don't see why it must only be one when today we already have many ways to source movies. The network is not always available anywhere.

Today, I watch a PS Store show (i.e., downloaded) every 1-2 days, and a Blu-ray movie every week. They have different advantages (I prefer watching on BR for big production and foreign films -- for the extras and subtitles. They are usually newer too !).

Portable videos can be extracted from Blu-ray digital copy or downloaded.
 
For every movie a studio can sell millions of , there are movies that are worth almost nothing. Not only that but as time goes on the older block busters maintain less of their selling power and for every LOTR there is a rush hour trilogy. How many copies of Lord of the Rings does a consumer need ? However if you offer Lord of the Rings in a streaming package yo ucan continue to get money from a person each month because if they want to see lord of the rings more than once they have to keep paying. As if is now if you buy lord of the rings launch day They get $30 from you on bluray. In 4 yeasr if you want to watch it again you don't have to pay anything. If you want to watch it with VOD you eithr have to pay again or have a continuing subscription to it. That subscription they sell you over and over again.

Not only that but the studio can cut out many middle men , you cut out the foundrys pressing discs and you cut out the stores taking a % of the sale price and you get rid of th risks of over stock and over production.

In say 2011 people will have more powerfull vod hardware and higher connection speeds than they did in 2008/2009. You put the two of them together you can you can get higher bit rates with better compression.

Thats an advantage over bluray right there. Bluray is basicly stuck at 50 gig discs at 1.5x transfer speeds for movies and its current codecs. But vod and streaming can constantly be updated with each new revision of hardware. Simply do a check like netflix does on my 360. It checks transfer rate and selects video quality depending on that.

In the future when you first attach a device to the service it can simply check which codec and what quality level its capable of supporting and then do a connection test and select quality level by that.

Im' pretty sure that if the next xbox is a $400 machine in 2011 it will be cable of using more powerfull comperssion than basicly 2005 bluray player tech from when the specs for that was finilized.

The PS3 is able to use a more powerfull compression today, that is not really interesting in any way though.

It would have to be a standard that is widely supported if it were to actually be usefull. And you would still need some pretty heavy duty connections on a big scale.

The irony of all this is that i used to have VOD service some 8-10 years ago, it wasn´t a wide selection but it was big enough to waste alot of time and money with. VOD has been here for so long and it´s never taken of in any big way. Imho it would have to be so standarized that every TV supported it out of the box. And i think i can see a trend towards that with tv's getting more and more features that lean towards that, specifically DNLA.

Though the current rush to HiDef Flatcreens kind a means that the big chance to make this a standard feature may take some time with everyone upgrading now.
 
But for a movies like LOTR, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, etc... these movies by themselves can generate billions of dollars at retail. How can studios leverage that into a subscription service?

There's lots of ways. You can have tiers of monthly subscriptions that offer different benefits, like Slacker does now. The better tiers give you more immediate access to blockbusters, the lower tiers make you wait a bit more. Or...some movies are just valued more so to watch them sooner will cost you $3, or some kind of cost, while more typical movies just fall into your monthly rate. Etc....there are ways to do it, they will just have to find something the masses will tolerate.


patsu said:
The players will also gain in processing power over time.

The studios can't obsolete current players though, so the current 2.0 capable players represent the processing 'upper bound' that will need to be supported long term. This effectively limits how far they can go with bd-live, etc...


damienw said:
You are high on PCP if you think in 2011 VOD will have the infrastructure to make a dent in physical copies.

I know it can be hard to remember but we are a quarter into 2009 as I type this. Explain to me the magical way in which 1080p w/ 7.1 audio will be streamed into our homes.

I don't agree with the timeline either, I still think it's 5+ years until online will be a major threat to discs. However, I think you are over extending the specs that are needed. I'd bet that 1280x720 with 5.1 dolby digital would be plenty for the masses even when they migrate to 50" displays. Some movies would probably even be only two channel audio.


eastmen said:
How many copies of Lord of the Rings does a consumer need ?

This is a good point. I know many that are content with their current dvd versions and won't buy again. I'm definitely not one of those and have since migrated to blu-ray. However, some of my blu-rays are so good, like the Pixar movies, that I can't really imagine buying them again in the next 5 to 10 years. I've double dipped in the past, but that was usually because the first pressing of the movie disc had a bad transfer, etc. For example I will likely double dip my Total Recall and Robocop blu-rays because the first ones are so bad. But for many of my other blu-rays I'm basically done, there is no need to rebuy them any time soon since they look fantastic, and they are totally cracked by anydvd so I can raid them. I can't imagine this represents the optimal scenario for studios since I'm sure they would love to hit me up for cash regularly. But as it stands for many movies they have now lost any more money from me for many years to come. That's a fundamental problem with disc vs. online, with online they can keep raiding my wallet monthly.
 
...You're advocating VOD without ownership - pay per view and subscription - correct? PPV is for renters - people who don't want to spend the money to actually buy the movie, so nothing changes there. In a subscription model, however, you have thousands of movies bundled together for a flat monthly fee. This is fine for older movies or movies that don't have blockbuster appeal, since they hardly sell any copies at retail anymore (case in point: netflix streaming service). But for a movies like LOTR, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, etc... these movies by themselves can generate billions of dollars at retail. How can studios leverage that into a subscription service?...

There's another model: Amazon Video Unboxed/Video on Demand

Not that I advocate them (I don't because they require a platform specific client for PCs, but I watch on my TiVo instead), but Amazon's "video on demand" includes rental and purchase options -- with both streaming and download for off-line viewing.

http://www.amazon.com/Lord-Rings-Fe...ie=UTF8&s=digital-video&qid=1236715344&sr=1-2

They even conveniently format it for portable devices for you if you purchase it (unfortunately restricted to two locations, eg: TiVo + Supported Portable).

I've not tried it (because I run linux based systems at home) but if you have Win Media Center, you can even stream to a 360:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/video/ontv/xbox/

Renting a Video

When you rent a video from Amazon Video on Demand, you can choose one viewing method for that video at the time of purchase: online or download for offline viewing. Once you choose a viewing method at the time of purchase, you cannot transfer that rented video to another device for viewing. (If you don't have any download locations set up, we'll assume you want to watch it online.) Rented videos will expire within the time frame advertised at the time of purchase.
Buying a Video

We store all of the videos you purchase from Amazon Video On Demand in Your Video Library, and you can choose between online and offline viewing options at any time depending on what is most convenient for you.

You can learn more about guidelines for accessing and watching Video On Demand content on the Help pages below:
 
The studios can't obsolete current players though, so the current 2.0 capable players represent the processing 'upper bound' that will need to be supported long term. This effectively limits how far they can go with bd-live, etc...

The studios can always introduce new BD profiles for the advanced features. As long as there is a business case, it is not impossible. Not to mention the most popular Blu-ray player is the PS3. They don't have to start from zero base.
 
I don't agree with the timeline either, I still think it's 5+ years until online will be a major threat to discs. However, I think you are over extending the specs that are needed. I'd bet that 1280x720 with 5.1 dolby digital would be plenty for the masses even when they migrate to 50" displays. Some movies would probably even be only two channel audio..

It would require extraordinary skills to actually predict when VOD is a real threat to discs, and by threat i mean when studios stop releasing movies on discs or VOD surpasses them in quality.

I am in the same boat as you on the quality side, 1080p is pretty simply as good as it gets now. Unlike NTSC/PAL where it took many years before the technology actually caught up with the resolution that the NTSC/PAL standard was able to display. We now have a unique situation where the technology is in sync, actually the discs are ahead of what the current consumers have.

I expect the HDTV standard to last many years before a upgrade is incomming, way longer than the DVD was the king. The discs i buy on Blu-Ray now will be of more value than my DVD´s were. They simply have a longer life span. I have a hard time actually seeing something "better in the future" maybe a extreme high definition VOD service, but unless there is a new tecnique developed to extract more resolution from the old prints, it would have a very limited selection of real superior quality movies.
 
It would require extraordinary skills to actually predict when VOD is a real threat to discs, and by threat i mean when studios stop releasing movies on discs or VOD surpasses them in quality.

Or when VOD becomes more convenient for consumers than discs, the way iTunes is more convenient than going to a record store. It'll take off for real when a technology/business model is combined with "good enough" quality, and that would spell the end of DVDs (most consumers aren't obsessed with getting the best possible fidelity--if that were the case, hardly anyone would use iTunes, and VHS would have failed).
 
It is already more convenient to download songs/movies than going to the stores. The problem is not because the convenience is not here yet. It's just that there are enough room to accomodate more than 1 medium. Downloadable media and packaged media have their own pros and cons; some artificial, some inherent. It's also a regional phenomenon due to high infrastructure requirements.
 
uh? how old are you :)

I was blown away the first time i saw someone put a tape in a machine that could playback video.

at home we had a video2000. our neighbours even had a remote control for it! (which was easily connected to said video2000 player through an extension module and a 15 foot cable....)
 
The studios have perfected double dipping. They know exactly when to release a movie and how to market it so people will re-buy the same movie they may have purchased only a year ago. I've purchased Terminator 2 three times!

You're advocating VOD without ownership - pay per view and subscription - correct? PPV is for renters - people who don't want to spend the money to actually buy the movie, so nothing changes there. In a subscription model, however, you have thousands of movies bundled together for a flat monthly fee. This is fine for older movies or movies that don't have blockbuster appeal, since they hardly sell any copies at retail anymore (case in point: netflix streaming service). But for a movies like LOTR, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, etc... these movies by themselves can generate billions of dollars at retail. How can studios leverage that into a subscription service?

Oh and btw, the Rush Hour movies actually did quite well in the theaters and video, why do you think they made 3 of them? :smile:

I don't really agree, if you look at numbers each re release sells less than the previous ones. As for rush hour , your not getting my point , they were block busters, but if you look as time has gone on the original ones have sold less and less with each re launch.

Take many big block busters from when dvd first came out or were big on vhs and see how big they are on bluray when they are released. Some blockbusters don't stand the test of time.

The PS3 is able to use a more powerfull compression today, that is not really interesting in any way though.

It would have to be a standard that is widely supported if it were to actually be usefull. And you would still need some pretty heavy duty connections on a big scale.

The irony of all this is that i used to have VOD service some 8-10 years ago, it wasn´t a wide selection but it was big enough to waste alot of time and money with. VOD has been here for so long and it´s never taken of in any big way. Imho it would have to be so standarized that every TV supported it out of the box. And i think i can see a trend towards that with tv's getting more and more features that lean towards that, specifically DNLA.

Though the current rush to HiDef Flatcreens kind a means that the big chance to make this a standard feature may take some time with everyone upgrading now.

The ps3 doesn't use it so it doesn't matter. The 360 itself can also use better compresion. Thats not the point. The point is the combination of higher download speeds and better compression. You don't need something widely supported either. If netflix supports it then you get a million or more netflix subscribers that can use it and as time goes on the devices that can use it will drop in price.

I'm glad you used a vod system 10 years ago.I used a disc based on 10 years ago also. Do we get medals for this ? There are many people out there who don't care to own movies. There are many people out there that don't want to pay $25-30 usd for a copy of howard the duck on bluray.

Look at bluray players , there is an lg one that supports netflix streaming. Its obvious that bluray itself isn't enough to sell the players anymore because people want more options than just buying expensive discs that they might watch once or twice and put away and take up space.

People are buying these huge flat screen tvs to save space. But they are buying big bulky bluray players. You can make a streaming platform much smaller than an optical one just based on the extra room left over from not having an optical drive in it. If they design it right it can big a big seller.

But what I really think is going to light the fire under bluray is when Netflix and MS announce streaming to the zune. Thats what is really missing with the vod. We have so many devices and the streaming is currently only going to 1 or 2 devices in our lives at the moment. The first company that can expand that to the majority of products in our lives will take over the market.

This is a good point. I know many that are content with their current dvd versions and won't buy again. I'm definitely not one of those and have since migrated to blu-ray. However, some of my blu-rays are so good, like the Pixar movies, that I can't really imagine buying them again in the next 5 to 10 years. I've double dipped in the past, but that was usually because the first pressing of the movie disc had a bad transfer, etc. For example I will likely double dip my Total Recall and Robocop blu-rays because the first ones are so bad. But for many of my other blu-rays I'm basically done, there is no need to rebuy them any time soon since they look fantastic, and they are totally cracked by anydvd so I can raid them. I can't imagine this represents the optimal scenario for studios since I'm sure they would love to hit me up for cash regularly. But as it stands for many movies they have now lost any more money from me for many years to come. That's a fundamental problem with disc vs. online, with online they can keep raiding my wallet monthly.

Except for a few select titles i'm not rebuying my dvd collection. LOTR , SW , IJ and BF and others I will buy again , but for each one of those there are 5 or so that I wont even think about it. I've been trying to make my purchases bluray from now on though however they aren't making it easy. I heard alot of good things about big bang theory and i went to the store and season 1 is out on dvd but not on bluray. Can't find a release date for it either same with how i met your mother. But I can't see myself going out and rebuying my scrubs seasons , smallville seasons and other seasons again either. It was a one time deal. Because quite frankly the dvds upscaled by my 360 or ps3 or hd dvd palyer look at least as good as the hd broad casts of the shows so there is no reason to go out and spend on the bluray verison.


The studios can always introduce new BD profiles for the advanced features. As long as there is a business case, it is not impossible. Not to mention the most popular Blu-ray player is the PS3. They don't have to start from zero base.

what do you do about compresion. in 2011 with the new xbox , netflix might team with ms and create a new codec for that hardware that provides much better compresion than what was used when bluray was ratified. lets go out on a limb and say the ps3 can't run it (which would be fair considering the age diffrence in tech) Do you now go out and make a profile that basicly kills off 50m units or so by that time (if not more) Perhaps you use quad layer discs where the first two layers have the older codecs and the second set of layers have a new codec. But now your encoding twice and using more expensive discs which equals a more expensive product.

I hope though all the playesr out there can play quad layer discs. I'd love complete seasons on 2 discs.

It is already more convenient to download songs/movies than going to the stores. The problem is not because the convenience is not here yet. It's just that there are enough room to accomodate more than 1 medium. Downloadable media and packaged media have their own pros and cons; some artificial, some inherent. It's also a regional phenomenon due to high infrastructure requirements.

I don't think we've seen a real push yet for vod. I think netflix is the first step towards this. Its growing at a steady pace and the introduction of a streaming only package and hopefully more tv shows and movies avalible will only push that faster. As i said earlier in this thread, a deal with ms for zune streaming and even windows mobile streaming all on the same account as your xbox and pc would push things evne further for them. No vod service has given us the total package and when one does things will explode for them.
 
I don't really agree, if you look at numbers each re release sells less than the previous ones.

The point isn't to sell more copies in the latter releases, but simply to sell more copies. The old versions stop selling and the studios realize that they can re-release a few oldies with a modest budget restoration and voila.

Terminator 2 is getting yet another released in May on DVD and BD for example.

There are many people out there who don't care to own movies.

That's simply not true, so let's not generalize because you are one and know some yourself. If that were the case, Hollywood home revenue would be in deep trouble right now.


Look at bluray players , there is an lg one that supports netflix streaming. Its obvious that bluray itself isn't enough to sell the players anymore because people want more options than just buying expensive discs that they might watch once or twice and put away and take up space.

True to an extent, because not every movie collector buy everything and there are movies out there that I'd like to watch once without having to own them.
 
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what do you do about compresion. in 2011 with the new xbox , netflix might team with ms and create a new codec for that hardware that provides much better compresion than what was used when bluray was ratified.
You obviously are not familiar with information theory and limits on compression. Compression algorithms are not like CPU speeds/cores or memory. They do not keep doubling. In fact if you look at mp3 compression tech from 10 years ago, the one we use today is marginally better/more efficient.

There are two types of compression, lossless and lossy. With lossless we are already at the mathematical maximum level of compression possible. That's to say if you have a zip file that's 5 mb, it'll still be 5mb 100 years from now.

With lossy, the trick is to make the compression artifacts as close to white noise as possible. While the achievable compression with lossy is higher, there is still a limit to the minimal amount of information needed to be able to present a movie/song etc. Your 4mb mp3 file you have today will never be 2mb without a noticable loss in quality, not now, nor in the future. DVD rips are still 1400mb like 10 years ago, with the 700mb versions suffering a noticable drop in quality. A HD movie is 5-6 GB from PSN or XBL, and you will never see it drop to 3GB without a serious degradation in quality.

There are mathematical limits on compression efficiency, whereas other aspects of computing, like cpu/ram etc have process limits that can be improved by improved manufacturing.
 
Take many big block busters from when dvd first came out or were big on vhs and see how big they are on bluray when they are released. Some blockbusters don't stand the test of time.
Just like old blockbusters didnt stand the test of time on DVD, but there is new blockbusters :)

Your making one of my points with your example of a "special" service from Netflix, every fragment added to the VOD market will just enhance the fragmation and keep it from growing.

I'm glad you used a vod system 10 years ago.I used a disc based on 10 years ago also. Do we get medals for this ?
I don´t get your tone?, sometimes you really come across as a annoying child.

My point was that VOD has been a part of the movie market for a long time, with little succes. The only place where VOD is a real threat today is Video rentals. And that has been the case for a long time. I am CERTAIN that it will grow, it will be big, but as i have said many times, if it wants to take over the WORLD and not just your little part it will have to change into something more unified, Netflix wont do. With Nintendo,Sony and Microsoft competing like mad men that wont help.

Its obvious that bluray itself isn't enough to sell the players anymore because people want more options than just buying expensive discs that they might watch once or twice and put away and take up space.
How is this obvious, do you have something solid on this? It couldn´t be a manufactor trying to sell more players than the competitors by adding feature?

People are buying these huge flat screen tvs to save space. But they are buying big bulky bluray players.
The current Blu-Ray players are pretty small, most funiture (unless it´s weird) is made so that it can actually house a standard HiFi component. You honestly think that VOD is gonna rule the world because it makes the home look better?

But what I really think is going to light the fire under bluray is when Netflix and MS announce streaming to the zune.
Zune will make a difference in VOD? Maybe you could elaborate a bit on how the very bad selling Zune that can´t be bought outside USA will change VOD to something more successful.

Except for a few select titles i'm not rebuying my dvd collection.

I could not agree more, though as time goes by i will fall into the pit of upgrade. But the main reason is that there is many i dont have that i would rather buy a new Blu-Ray than upgrade old ones. Bladerunner not being part of this, only bought it 2 times on VHS, and 2 times on DVD and the "This is it" version on Blu-Ray :)
Another reason is that many of the TV-Series and concerts were recorded in SD to begin with, my Borg Cube with STNG can´t be upgraded.

In 2011 with the new xbox , netflix might team with ms and create a new codec for that hardware that provides much better compresion than what was used when bluray was ratified.
Afaik there isn´t something mindblowing on the horizon that will change the actually codec techniques. VC-1 seemed like Microsoft doing their outmost to come up with the best compression they could, and it took them a long time and they did not succeed in surpassing what was already out there. I find it very doubtful if not naive to think that in a few years we will have something that will compete with the current encoders and will be able to provide 1080p at very low bitrates without any loss of quality compared to the current encodes. I am not even sure it´s possible within very long terms.
 
I don't really agree, if you look at numbers each re release sells less than the previous ones. As for rush hour , your not getting my point , they were block busters, but if you look as time has gone on the original ones have sold less and less with each re launch.

Terminator 2 - 600k sold
Terminator 2 Ultimate - 1.5m sold
Terminator 2 Extreme - 1.2m sold

Take many big block busters from when dvd first came out or were big on vhs and see how big they are on bluray when they are released. Some blockbusters don't stand the test of time.

And some are timeless. Is there any doubt that the Star Wars films won't sell like gangbusters when Lucas finally releases them on BD? All 6 films have the potential to easily generate more than a billion dollars in revenue. How long will it take to generate that same amount of revenue in a subscription service that has thousands of films where lucas only gets a tiny piece of each subscription?
 
at home we had a video2000. our neighbours even had a remote control for it! (which was easily connected to said video2000 player through an extension module and a 15 foot cable....)

Oh you lucky bastard!

We had to carve our TV out of of a log of a pine tree and force the neighbour kid to sit inside it when we watched it.
 
Oh you lucky bastard!

We had to carve our TV out of of a log of a pine tree and force the neighbour kid to sit inside it when we watched it.

Please, that was in color and 24/7, we had B&W, one channel with state sponsored TV from 18:00-23:00. You got the better deal.
 
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