Just like old blockbusters didnt stand the test of time on DVD, but there is new blockbusters
Your making one of my points with your example of a "special" service from Netflix, every fragment added to the VOD market will just enhance the fragmation and keep it from growing.
Unless there aren't more fragments added and the choices actually narrow as srvices become more popular. If Netflix for example can take a large chunk of the market then there wont be the problems your talking about . There can be room for more than one service. Just like there is more than dvd out there. None of them may be as big as dvd , but they are there are for the most part healthy and growing.
That's simply not true, so let's not generalize because you are one and know some yourself. If that were the case, Hollywood home revenue would be in deep trouble right now.
Lol , I like owning movies personly. I have 800 dvds , 142 hd dvds and 32 blurays right now. But i know alot of people who just rent movies and don't own a single dvd. I"m not generalizing anythign when i say there are many people who don't want to own movies. Its simply a fact. I never said there was a majority , just that there are many people out there.
True to an extent, because not every movie collector buy everything and there are movies out there that I'd like to watch once without having to own them.
of course , even in vhs's life there was a rental option. Its just that renting has never been easier or cheaper than it is now. You don't even need to leave the house.
With lossy, the trick is to make the compression artifacts as close to white noise as possible. While the achievable compression with lossy is higher, there is still a limit to the minimal amount of information needed to be able to present a movie/song etc. Your 4mb mp3 file you have today will never be 2mb without a noticable loss in quality, not now, nor in the future. DVD rips are still 1400mb like 10 years ago, with the 700mb versions suffering a noticable drop in quality. A HD movie is 5-6 GB from PSN or XBL, and you will never see it drop to 3GB without a serious degradation in quality.
So you think that the lossy compresion is at the end of its life in terms of improvements on it ? I can tell you that the 700 meg rips of movies i make today for streaming are alot higher quality than the ones i made 5 years ago.
Also your forgeting the other side of the equation which is higher bitrates due to higher bandwidth. Japan itself is gearing up to make gigabit internet a reality and verizon here in the states is inching up ever onwards to higher and higher speeds.
Zune will make a difference in VOD? Maybe you could elaborate a bit on how the very bad selling Zune that can´t be bought outside USA will change VOD to something more successful.
its not just zune , its the ability to subscribe to one streaming service and get that service on a series of devices. When you can pick up your netflix account from your xbox 360 in your living room , to your pc in your office to your zune at starbucks to your laptop at a hotel your staying at. It will make it much more apealing to the average person.
Afaik there isn´t something mindblowing on the horizon that will change the actually codec techniques. VC-1 seemed like Microsoft doing their outmost to come up with the best compression they could, and it took them a long time and they did not succeed in surpassing what was already out there. I find it very doubtful if not naive to think that in a few years we will have something that will compete with the current encoders and will be able to provide 1080p at very low bitrates without any loss of quality compared to the current encodes. I am not even sure it´s possible within very long terms.
I'm not sure on that. Mpeg2 was created along side of dvd i believe and that came out in 97. In 06' we had hd dvd adn bluray with vc1 and the others. in 11' that will be a good 5 years or so. We may not get a jump like we did between mpeg2 and vc1 but there can still be room for improvement. Also lets not forget that we will continue to get speed increases for the itnernet which will also help vod.