When will the next generation start?

[Sonic]

When do you guys think the new generation of consoles will start? I can only say I think it highly unlikely that new hardware will be launched until late 2012 at the earliest. We don't really have any information (to my knowledge) about next gen hardware from either Sony, Microsoft, or Nintendo. The rumor mills aren't a wealth of information like they were leading up to the launch of 360 or PS3. Back in 2001 and 2002 we had a lot of discussion on what possible hardware would be in the 360 and PS3 with much talk of CELL. It seems this time around things are so very tight lipped and security is as good as Apple's, when it comes to leaked information, or there just isn't a plan to release them until 2013/14.

We usually see a run up of speculation and rumors about the new consoles a few years before they get released, but we haven't seen anything concrete or even marshmallowy to provide info on these new systems that will be out one day. I remember reading Panajev2001's posts about CELL and a bunch of others who speculated on the hardware and it came to fruition pretty much.

Is the current generation going to last far longer than the PS2, GCN, Xbox era?

When do you think we will start getting good trickles of information about the new consoles?

I understand that Microsoft is releasing Natal soon, and that may extend the life of the 360 for a good amount of time, but shouldn't we be hearing more news of a true successor to the 360?

Nintendo may have changed the game with the Wii in that the new consoles will recycle the hardware with a speed bump and more memory in order for the consoles to be profitable from Day 1, but it does seem like the next generation isn't even on the horizon.

I'd be willing to bet that Nintendo could be the first out the gate with a new system (fully new) because the Wii just doesn't have the muscle power to compete in the HD space and Nintendo will see that they will need to move in on this market eventually.

I'm just making this thread because I think it's something a lot of us on here are pondering and not really seeing much in the way of rumors or speculation other than what we would like in a new system.

This thread is meant for discussion of when the next generation will arrive, how long the current generation will last, and when we will see information come spewing out about the new hardware.

This thread is not meant to discuss Nintendo, Sony, or Microsoft's consoles (current or next gen) pitted against one another in terms of hardware performance or sales.

If this thread must be closed due to various reasons I understand, but this is a topic of discussion I'm interested in seeing and hopefully will be constructive!

 

[RobertR1]

Nintendo is in the best position. They are selling their current hardware at a good profit and are cash rich. Can't say I agree with your statement about "Wii just doesn't have the muscle power to compete in the HD space." Frankly, it doesn't need to. Nintendo will likely shy away from a tech race and focus on the next big draw. They know they have the hardcore Nintendo fans locked down. For them, new Mario platformers and Zelda games are plenty. Their focus will once again be on retaining their newfound casual base while hoping to attract more. Nintendo also is in the best position to capitalize on Natal/Move's impact on the market. I expect Nintendo to go the safest route. They'll do a WiiHD while introducing a new tech for the causal market.

Microsoft comes next. Their 360 business is a great success to the original Xbox. It's selling a lot more while bleeding a lot less. Ultimately, Natal's impact will determine Microsoft's hand. If Natal does take off, they'll ride it out for a while. Why cut short the profits and sales by introducing a new console. Having 2 consoles on the market will split the focus and cause consumer indecision. If Natal fails, I expect MS to start ramping up on Xbox 3 quickly in hopes to beat atleast Sony to the market. MS will also still go for the high tech market as it's too much of a risk to go low tech and hope to draw away the Nintendo market. They'll want to ensure they have their existing fanbase locked up while having some good offerings for the casuals with Natal 2.0. Microsoft is likely the wildcard here. They have a lot options, which is not always a good thing as it leaves more chances at failure.

Sony needs to have the PS4 on standby. It'll be interesting to see how much focus they place on Move. If they simply roll it out without much fanfare, I'll expect them to be working hard on a new console to launch before the competition. One thing Sony will not want to do is get beat to the market again. They'll also not make the mistake of $599 again. I expect their PS4 tech to be less exotic and more sensible. I expect Sony to launch with the safest console out of all 3. They'll go with a reasonly high tech machine that also has a very strong appeal (price and games) to the casual market. If they time/price/market it right, they have a good chance of returning to the Playstation glory years. The PS brand name is still strong and can be built on next gen. I just hope they don't go overboard in one area or another.

 

[NRP]

I'd agree late 2012 at the earliest. Sony and MS want ROI. Why dump that now that their consoles are likely profitable?

 

[Grall]

I think the reason manufacturers appear tight-lipped about the next generation is because there isn't one, nor are we anywhere close to getting one. Hell, the current gen is still expensive, physically large, noisy, hot-running, and not fully maxed out yet. New functionality is still being added, so on and so forth.

I'm quite sure it'll be another 4 years if not more at this rate before we see another bunch of consoles.

 

[FAIL]

Sonic, do you have an e-mail address as I have a few questions to ask you.

Private messaging doesn't seem to be working.

 

[Rangers]

Who knows. Could be as late as 2013 from latest rumors. Three years just for Natal and Move. Hell maybe even longer.

It is a little sad to think how old the PC equivalent GPU's in these boxes are though. Yet they're still pushing very nice graphics and haven't been fully tapped.

 

[eastmen]

IMO

Nintendo goes first . Basicly a wii with a new gpu and a quad core varient of the current processer. The gpu will most likely be off the shelf , mabye what would amount to a 6570. 1 gig of system ram.

2011 would be my guess , nintendo really has nothing to take away attention from natal and move so new hardware would make sense. They are also heavly bundlingthier system now. The new bundle for the black unit comes wit wii sports , wii sports resort , a nunchuck and motion plus for $200 and I suspect a price drop for the holiday.


MS would be next. I'm going to go with holiday 2012. Ithink they ar going to go with a monster. ATI for the gpu and a power pc varient of waternoose (mabye with ooe back in and double or tripple the cores) 2-4 gigs of ram .

Sony would come after them and I'd be they would do a launch in japan first in early 2013 and ramp up for europe and America in the early fall. I suspect sony will be a little more shy with the hardware in the system and come out with a cheaper console . A varient of the cell perhaps with a new nvidia gpu and 2-4 gigs of ram .

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I think the reason manufacturers appear tight-lipped about the next generation is because there isn't one, nor are we anywhere close to getting one. Hell, the current gen is still expensive, physically large, noisy, hot-running, and not fully maxed out yet. New functionality is still being added, so on and so forth.

I'm quite sure it'll be another 4 years if not more at this rate before we see another bunch of consoles.

PC gaming would make a come back if your correct. Consoles already look out dated and if they try to move to 3D pcs will just keep pushing foward.

I think no one is talking next gen because no one wants to tip thier hand. MS learned how important going first in comparison to sony is and I suspect they will try to do thier best again.

The 360 is already at $200 and we will see a redisgn and a price drop this year. Even if its only to $150 for the core that is the same price the ps2 was when it was replaced. So for MS they can easily in 2012 phase out one of the two verisons of 360 (core or premium ) and sell a $100console next to a $400 next gen xbox. The xbox 360 would sell well through 2012 and most likely into 2013 and mabye 2014. It would get ps3 ports or it would still have the primary dev target like it does now thanks ot its user base. MS gets a jump on sony and can start selling a next gen console. Avoiding a ROD issue would help them alot this time around and they will do much better than with a 360.

With regards to sony you might be right The ps3 is at $300 . I don't see a $100 price drop in store this year. Sony is claiming they are making money on the ps3 slim but we don't know how much and if the $300 price point is loosing money wile the more expensive bundle verisons are brining money in.

 

[dragonelite]

Question do you guys want to see that late gen games coming out now are forward compatible. Say for example reach on 360 is just under sub hd but if bungie makes it forward compatible it would be 1080p@60 fps on the next xbox.
Better example would be the gow collection remastered but instead of rereleasing those games they would just patch it or ask a $5 fee for the effort they have to make the patch.

Dont know how hard it would be for devs i heard microsoft focussing on it?

 

[eastmen]

Question do you guys want to see that late gen games coming out now are forward compatible. Say for example reach on 360 is just under sub hd but if bungie makes it forward compatible it would be 1080p@60 fps on the next xbox.
Better example would be the gow collection remastered but instead of rereleasing those games they would just patch it or ask a $5 fee for the effort they have to make the patch.

Dont know how hard it would be for devs i heard microsoft focussing on it?

Depends on what goes on. If its just a download of a few hundred kb of data to do it then sure i'd take it for free. The 360 already did this to xbox games.

I dunno about paying for higher resolutions nor do I really think its needed on consoles. Its not like your going from a 320x240 res to 1080p.

 

[dragonelite]

Depends on what goes on. If its just a download of a few hundred kb of data to do it then sure i'd take it for free. The 360 already did this to xbox games.

I dunno about paying for higher resolutions nor do I really think its needed on consoles. Its not like your going from a 320x240 res to 1080p.

But yeah this gen introduced the nothing is free we all know how that one company wont call names did it with unlock codes for a few kb.

 

[Sdw]

Unfortunately I think the financial success of the Wii is what is holding back the next generation.
That Nintendo were successful with that overpriced piece of subpar hardware is the worst thing that could happen to the console business, at least for those of us who loves to see technology progress.

Now of course Sony and Microsoft wants a piece of the "sell-hardware-with-large-margin-to-stupid-people-who-want-to-flail-their-arms-in-fron-of-the-TV" market, which we are already seeing. They'll want to milk their own waving-thingamambobs for a couple of years.
If we are lucky, people will grow tired of this soon, and things will get back on track.

 

[dragonelite]

Unfortunately I think the financial success of the Wii is what is holding back the next generation.
That Nintendo were successful with that overpriced piece of subpar hardware is the worst thing that could happen to the console business, at least for those of us who loves to see technology progress.

Now of course Sony and Microsoft wants a piece of the "sell-hardware-with-large-margin-to-stupid-people-who-want-to-flail-their-arms-in-fron-of-the-TV" market, which we are already seeing. They'll want to milk their own waving-thingamambobs for a couple of years.
If we are lucky, people will grow tired of this soon, and things will get back on track.

You know Wii Hd for $250 will sell like hotcakes.

 

[fehu]

i remeber that some time ago ati started the development of nextbox gpu, if thats true and considering a devtime parallel to the regular gpu, maybe 2012 it's likely

 

[Grall]

2011 would be my guess , nintendo really has nothing to take away attention from natal and move so new hardware would make sense.

I don't think Nintendo needs to take any 'attention' away from those two products.

They are peripherals, their installed user base is 0 units. Software support is sketchy at best, for both of them. Nintendo has had their solution as standard equipment since day 1 now, years ago, dozens of millions of units of hardware.

Nintendo's running their own race mostly, 3rd party support is mostly show really - a nice added bonus at best, but Nintendo mostly cares about Nintendo...

They are also heavly bundlingthier system now. The new bundle for the black unit comes wit wii sports , wii sports resort , a nunchuck and motion plus

Wii sports came with my launch unit. I suspect it's part of EVERY wii ever sold.

Nunchuck is always standard equipment when you buy a wii.

Wii sports resort requires a motionplus, so it's natural those two goes together. I don't quite think bundling that pair - especially as motionplus essentially is what the wand should always have been from the start - counts as "heavy bundling".

I suspect a price drop for the holiday.

If Nintendo's software lineup is strong enough they just might not. Like, if they get Zelda ready for example...

MS would be next. I'm going to go with holiday 2012. Ithink they ar going to go with a monster.

I think MS learned their lessons regarding monster consoles. Sony also I might add. Straight losses for years straight takes its toll on shareholder patience as well. I would wager they target what is essentially mid-range PC hardware at the time they develop the console. That would still be several times more powerful than current console hardware. Wii success shows that the mass market can't give a crap about hardware specs anyway, and hell, even PS3 and 360 are essentially obsolete now hardware-wise and they still sell briskly.

Quite possibly they might decide to go with much bigger RAM this time - that's not a particulary expensive upgrade, and developers always b*tch about RAM anyway, so it would simplify development and allow much more expressive graphics without having to bump hardware specs to crazy levels.

 

[London Geezer]

PC gaming would make a come back if your correct. Consoles already look out dated and if they try to move to 3D pcs will just keep pushing foward.

Completely disagree. I have seen things coming out of my PS3 that would be very, very hard to find on a PC where just the GPU costs as much as the whole PS3.
Also, sales-wise, PC gaming would most certainly not 'come back'. People will keep buying Wii-360-PS3 games in their millions well into 2012 and later, even as outdated as they are.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The consoles will come as late as possible I'm sure. Anyone designing a console to release 2011 will be facing un uncertain economy. Do you aim high and overprice, or too low and find a year later things have picked up and whoever launched then can offer a better, more appealing system? Plus they'll want feedback from the new motion engines.

Drawing boards have several design concepts on them by my reckoning, wth plenty of RnD investigation into future options. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we don't see anything until 2013, Holiday 2012 at the earliest.

 

[London Geezer]

We will also get into even more of an issue with diminishing returns - the more we go on, the bigger this problem is.

Graphically speaking, and all else being equal, if the 'next gen' can't offer much that couldn't be done on current gen, then what is the point in buying the hardware??

It follows that if manufacturers 'play it safe' and release quickly (say 2012) hardware which is 'just a small update', then i don't think people will buy into it.
I see much more likely the possibility of releasing a bit later, offering technology which would be 'top-end' in, say, 2012, but only when it becomes profitable to put in consoles, whenever that is.
This way people will see more of a point in buying new consoles.

Now there is also the variable of offering 'new' things, like Nintendo did with the Wii, but that's not connected to high-end technology per se, but on the idea itself.

 

[liolio]

I'm not sure Nintendo will be first one to push its new system out. Wii sales are still greatly exceeding others available hardware and it's still pretty expensive, Nintendo could possibly have sold its new bundle (the balck Wii) @150$ or less if needed.
Anyway they may think that they can do more profit with a new hardware, it's what they doing with the DS they are living with declining sales while still making profit but they decide to move forward next year with the 3DS (can't wait E3 by the way). So say Nintendo is "first out" it would be close to crazy to not have something ready at the same time, I mean who would let Nintendo, still surfing it Wii success, a one or two years head start? It would only take Nintendo a mid/low perf system to take away casual and hardcore gamers from Sony and MS (ok Natal and Move could turn "that" big so this doesn't happen but it's pretty much iffy).
My point is that the three manufacturers will extend these systems life for as long as they can and they won't let anybody an head start, especially Nintendo.

 

[MfA]

Since Nintendo is embracing stereoscopic for the DS maybe they will do a new Virtual Boy

 

[V3]

Next gen looks like 2012 at the earliest IMO, even later if Natal and Move takes off well. We know 3DS is coming next year. So my guess PSP2 isn't far off. MS still ignoring handheld, maybe they'll have a suprise at E3, but they'll more likely to concentrate on Natal this year.

Also looking at new engine tech also give hints as to when next gen is going to hit. At the moment no company is yet to show off engines for next gen consoles. ID talk about theirs but even them still concentrating on this gen So everything points to 2012 or even later at this point.

I think Nintendo will try to be different again, MS may go with download only console, and Sony will probably release a $800 console in 2012-2013.