When will the next generation start?

[Svensk Viking]

According to Mark Rein, over half the users who played Gears 2 had done so on SDTV(myself included too!)...I have always felt the "HD generation" came to early either way

So I see no reason to release new consoles pushing "even more HD"

 

[London Geezer]

I think Nintendo will try to be different again, MS may go with download only console, and Sony will probably release a $800 console in 2012-2013.

Sure hope not.

 

[liolio]

Sure hope not.

Indeed if the thing turns out interesting I would have to wait till I start to wake up two or three times per night to be able to afford it ...

 

[V3]

Well Sony will most likely keep selling PS3 like the way they do with PS2 currently. So they get their 10 years life cycle out of it. So even if PS4 is an expensive console, it'll get cheaper eventually.

 

[corduroygt]

I don't think PC gaming is coming back any time soon, and also, we'll see less and less $600 300W monsters and more gpu's focused on getting good performance with a limited area and power budged on laptops. Hey, maybe Nvidia actually knew that the hardcore desktop gaming market was quickly becoming a niche and tried to get into the supercomputer market, who knows.

Development of games this generation is already at 30-100M$, stuff with better graphics would require better textures and art and more complex details. No one is going to do that just for the PC, it would be financial suicide. Even Ati and Nvidia don't have too much of an incentive to release their next gen cards as quickly as they've been doing in the past. Without software to take advantage of it, hardware is useless.

I just hope that by the time next gen comes, it will be HDMI only with 720p minimum requirement.

 

[London Geezer]

I just hope that by the time next gen comes, it will be HDMI only with 720p minimum requirement.

I certainly hope the minimum will be 720p with a good amount of AA, at least! And that 'minimum' needs to be a real 'minimum'. Not something that we have seen before, where MS promised that the minimum is 720p with AA, and then we get sub-HD games even a few years into the console's life.

 

[Alkohallick]

Ive read several posts suggesting that a ram increase and small bump in speed would fit with a cheaper release price point. Well my question is to any devs here is how much improvement would say 4GB ram be to current systems? How much of, or should i say WHAT would be different?

 

[London Geezer]

Ive read several posts suggesting that a ram increase and small bump in speed would fit with a cheaper release price point. Well my question is to any devs here is how much improvement would say 4GB ram be to current systems? How much of, or should i say WHAT would be different?

One thing for sure, loading times would be a killer, without some smart loading or streaming tech.

 

[DeadlyNinja]

This generation's barely started. I'm in no hurry for the next. I think 2015 would be a good time to start the next. It feels like after all these years, we're still stuck in last gen, and I'm a freaking PC owner. Looking at all the consoles, it's only now they're starting to build up a library. It's not that big, but it's something. I think ditching it in 2 years is too soon.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Discussion of the hardware of the new machines is here.

So say Nintendo is "first out" it would be close to crazy to not have something ready at the same time, I mean who would let Nintendo, still surfing it Wii success, a one or two years head start? It would only take Nintendo a mid/low perf system to take away casual and hardcore gamers from Sony and MS.

I disagree. Without the software the core gamers won't be attracted, and for two generations Nintendo have struggled to provide that core game experience. There's a distinct possibility that Nintendo could launch first but publishers, uncertain of who the user base will be, will fail to invest in the platform, perhaps only providing slightly improved variants on what they produce for PS360. In contrast, PS4 will offer the core gamer games they like, because Sony's first parties will ensure that, and neXtBox will because of the cross-over with the PC space, MS's tools, and Epic+CryTek and MS commissions. Will there be suitable GTAs, Forza/GTs, Halo/Killzones, Uncharted/Alan Wakes on a Nintendo console? Not from Nintendo, that's for sure.

 

[liolio]

Discussion of the hardware of the new machines is here.

I disagree. Without the software the core gamers won't be attracted, and for two generations Nintendo have struggled to provide that core game experience. There's a distinct possibility that Nintendo could launch first but publishers, uncertain of who the user base will be, will fail to invest in the platform, perhaps only providing slightly improved variants on what they produce for PS360. In contrast, PS4 will offer the core gamer games they like, because Sony's first parties will ensure that, and neXtBox will because of the cross-over with the PC space, MS's tools, and Epic+CryTek and MS commissions. Will there be suitable GTAs, Forza/GTs, Halo/Killzones, Uncharted/Alan Wakes on a Nintendo console? Not from Nintendo, that's for sure.

But I can't see a reason why third party editors would not support the system.

 

[Rangers]

We will also get into even more of an issue with diminishing returns - the more we go on, the bigger this problem is.

Graphically speaking, and all else being equal, if the 'next gen' can't offer much that couldn't be done on current gen, then what is the point in buying the hardware??

It follows that if manufacturers 'play it safe' and release quickly (say 2012) hardware which is 'just a small update', then i don't think people will buy into it.
I see much more likely the possibility of releasing a bit later, offering technology which would be 'top-end' in, say, 2012, but only when it becomes profitable to put in consoles, whenever that is.
This way people will see more of a point in buying new consoles.

Now there is also the variable of offering 'new' things, like Nintendo did with the Wii, but that's not connected to high-end technology per se, but on the idea itself.

Diminishing returns will be a problem eventually, but I've been hearing about it since the SNES era.

I feel confident at least one more generation will show huge fidelity leaps.

Hell, look at all the complaints here of "game X doesn't do AF...why not waaah?" And AA and 60 FPS and the textures suck and the ploygon sucks. Not too mention many games aren't even true 720P, let alone 1080P. Heck this generation struggles greatly with explosions.

Just if you were to run this gen's games with 16XAF, 4XAA, and 60 FPS, at 1080P, you'd need a lot more power. And I'm pretty sure next gen graphics will need to shoot for a lot more than this gen gussied up too boot.

I certainly hope the minimum will be 720p with a good amount of AA, at least! And that 'minimum' needs to be a real 'minimum'. Not something that we have seen before, where MS promised that the minimum is 720p with AA, and then we get sub-HD games even a few years into the console's life.

Yeah, just MS promised that. Didn't a certain other company practically promise a standard of 1080P at one time? Whatever happened to that? Instead they ended up struggling to keep up at 720P. There's just as many sub HD games on PS3 as 360, even if 360 has had a few high profile misses lately.

 

[London Geezer]

Yeah, just MS promised that. Didn't a certain other company practically promise a standard of 1080P at one time? Whatever happened to that? Instead they ended up struggling to keep up at 720P. There's just as many sub HD games on PS3 as 360, even if 360 has had a few high profile misses lately.

I agree. Sorry if it sounded like i singled out MS - it didn't mean that the same didn't apply to Sony.

 

[joker454]

I'm hoping it's holiday 2012 since this gen is long in the tooth at 5 years old, but there is probably little incentive to go next gen as long as games this gen sell well. It also seems like new gpu hardware just doesn't run cool enough to run in a next gen box so that's an issue as well. Given how often both current gen consoles broke, I figure they will want next gen to run cooler from day one. So alas it may be as long as 2013 before we see a new box

 

[corduroygt]

Yeah, just MS promised that. Didn't a certain other company practically promise a standard of 1080P at one time? Whatever happened to that? Instead they ended up struggling to keep up at 720P. There's just as many sub HD games on PS3 as 360, even if 360 has had a few high profile misses lately.

The difference is that sub-HD PS3 games come from 2nd and 3rd parties, while MS first parties aren't immune to the sub-HD.

Also comparing one retired person's admittedly insane quotes vs a formal companywide requirements change isn't very fair.

I believe that 1080p still won't be standard on next gen. Too many people with small/720p sets watching from too far away to make that standard. I'm personally ok with 720p games.

 

[101998]

I think it really depends on what happens with the 3DTV push. If it takes off then I bet we would see new consoles in 2012 (at the latest) boasting 3D gaming. 3D is more expensive than motion control (in terms of hardware) but it falls right in line with selling more consoles to the casual crowd. 3D console games w/ Natal is a home run waiting to happen.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But I can't see a reason why third party editors would not support the system.

I can't see a reason why they haven't backed Wii either, but they havem't. I guess it depends on their perception. If publihsers feel the core gamers won't abandon PS360, the core games won't be made for Nintedo's next machine. And if the core games aren't made, the core gamers won't migrate. It's a self-fulfiling prophecy, but true of every new hardware launch. eg. Talk of a new Sega console - who would write games for it? Or an Apple console. Or Google. Hardware needs games, which needs publisher support, which needs them to be convinced the hardware is a viable concern. Even if Nintendo have a worthwhile box, I feel (pretty unjustified though I admit!) that they'll need to work to convince publishers to create core franchises like COD that make something of it instead of just porting their PS360 works. Whereas a new MS or Sony console I'm sure will have the backing from Day 1 for significant titles as they are 'serious' consoles for 'serious' gamers.

Personally I don't mind a longer wait. My most anticipated game of this generation is Snowblind Studios latest, which isn't due until 2011! I'll then appreciate a sequel in 2012. We've had nothing from Team ICO yet. Haven't had a single GT yet! Then there's the motion controls, which'll be smelly old first-gen titles for the first year, and then maybe some decent ones the year after. This generation is far from over. I think it's only looking long in the tooth for those who have decent spec PCs, much like last gen. I was happy playing PS2 titles even when PCs were capable of much better, because the games I liked weren't being made to high quality on PC (CON looked better on PS2 than Dungeon Seige did on a more powerful PC).

And another upside is that developers find the best approaches in the closed hardware world of consoles. MLAA is just making an appearance, on consoles rather than PC where the hardware is expected to handle MSAA and you just need Moooore Power! to get better IQ. Consoles need smarter coding to get better IQ, which leads to better use of hardware overall and into tthe next generation. Devs have had some years coming to grips with the machines. Now it's time to really dig and explore and find novel methods that improve the intellectual base of game techs (which can of course feed back to non-gaming computer applicaiions).

 

[eastmen]

Completely disagree. I have seen things coming out of my PS3 that would be very, very hard to find on a PC where just the GPU costs as much as the whole PS3.
Also, sales-wise, PC gaming would most certainly not 'come back'. People will keep buying Wii-360-PS3 games in their millions well into 2012 and later, even as outdated as they are.

Just think of the early adopters of consoles. They bought a 360 in 2005, they bought a ps3 in 2006. Now its 2012 , 2013 and not a new system in sight. What are they going to buy ? When now you have a decade of performance enhancments going on in pc land that the consoles have seen none of. Radeon 58x0 class hardare will be dirt cheap in 2012 and will blow away any console. By 2012 dx 10 will be the api coded for and not dx9. PCs will take another leap foward in tech .

The longer consoles wait to upgrade the worse it will be and pcs will offer experiances that consoles simply can't like eyeinfinty and 3d surround .

This isn't the year 2000 either. You can build a quad core pc with 4-8 gigs of ram a 1tb hardrive and a radeon 5850 for $800

 

[eastmen]

I don't think Nintendo needs to take any 'attention' away from those two products.

They are peripherals, their installed user base is 0 units. Software support is sketchy at best, for both of them. Nintendo has had their solution as standard equipment since day 1 now, years ago, dozens of millions of units of hardware.

Nintendo's running their own race mostly, 3rd party support is mostly show really - a nice added bonus at best, but Nintendo mostly cares about Nintendo...

However we are already hearing ms wanting to do a relaunch of the 360 based on natal. So Natal + redesign plus halo , fable and other games will push alot of sales for MS and take away the spot light from nintendo

I think MS learned their lessons regarding monster consoles. Sony also I might add. Straight losses for years straight takes its toll on shareholder patience as well. I would wager they target what is essentially mid-range PC hardware at the time they develop the console. That would still be several times more powerful than current console hardware. Wii success shows that the mass market can't give a crap about hardware specs anyway, and hell, even PS3 and 360 are essentially obsolete now hardware-wise and they still sell briskly.

What lesson is that? The 360 is selling very well and if they can put out another $300-$400 console they will do it again. This time i'm sure they will avoid the rrod problem

Quite possibly they might decide to go with much bigger RAM this time - that's not a particulary expensive upgrade, and developers always b*tch about RAM anyway, so it would simplify development and allow much more expressive graphics without having to bump hardware specs to crazy levels.

I think they will want capable hardware. I fully suspect that if this generation everyone shoots for 7 years before consoles are replaced then thiscoming generation they will try for longer. A $400 console over 8 years or so before a replacement comeso ut isn't very expensive. You have the hardcore who will jump at it and buy it at those prices and as it comes down in price you will get more people buying it. I don't expect a $600 console from anyone. But $300-$400 is perfectly sane.

 

[thop]

When will the next generation start?

Not until Sony decides it does.