I feel they have to make a play for one or the other at some point. If not for anything else, but to keep some other company like Meta, Amazon, Apple, or Google snatching them up and then putting them on Metaverse stuff. It's about making sure that nobody else can buy them out from under you. That's why it makes sense despite the fact that SquareEnix and Capcom games will always release on Playstation because that's where the majority of their sales come from
Sony won't fight those giants. Sony just can't afford that as for tech giants any publisher (ironically ATVI was the biggest one) is nothing on the balance sheet as 10-15b are not even that important. Sony did not even win against Tencent regarding Leyou. Sony consists of several companies and I am pretty sure that other divisions won't suddenly say that they should invest everything they have in gaming and abandon other divisions. I just don't see that, unlike tech giants for whom 10-15b acquisition is a sum that can be written off if the investment did not work out. (Funnily people thought about MS the same way, but MS happened to be rather persistent in home console space. Hail Phil for saving Xbox after Xbox One though)
I have mixed feelings regarding other tech giants. On the one hand if one of them grabs another publisher, it will be easier for MS to acquire something else. On the another hand the tech giant won't enter the home console market and more likely to get a publisher for VR (mainly Facebook) or some other stuff. But at the same time, with the possibility of the resurgence of the handheld market somebody might be interested in owning a publisher (Apple handheld for example).
All existing western big publishers have various internal issues
- Ubisoft is the most vulnerable one as they seem not only had internal issues like ATVI, but also trying stuff like NFT, pivot to F2P and so on as if don't know what to do
- EA ran Need for Speed, Battlefield into the ground and I have no hope that they will be able to produce quality content. It feels like they are going into ATVI trap. They did make big acquisitions so I don't see them being bought in the near future. Mobile studio, Codemasters. Main cashcow is FIFA but unlike COD, FIFA is a licensed franchise.
- T2 is literally GTA Online machine. They also got Zynga which was a huge acquisition. They are becoming almost ATVI but with less teams and less active IPs I guess? GTA is extremely important though.
- WB is in limbo. No idea what is happening there but all their studios - aside NR - had abysmal output for some reason and finally seem to be read to release something after many many years
On the east
- Square Enix is the odd one that throws its western division under the bus and it seems more interested in the immediate profit, rather than growing their franchises. They basically depend on FF14 and moneyhats at this point
- Bamco is doing fine on all the stuff they produce using licenses
- Konami is doing whatever but find some success accidentally
- Sega is strange. Atlus is doing whatever, other japanese teams do whatever, RCG is fine though. Western part is good though. In addition to that Sega did a lot of restructuring over the past years. Maybe gearing towards selling Sega Corp.? Though Sega claimed that they plan to buy somebody.
- Capcom found great success in Monster Hunter franchise which at this point overshadows every other IP. But unlike certain somebody they are not pivoting to make only the games for that franchise and started to make stuff like VR games too and release the games from other IPs
I think MS is right to be making these somewhat pre-emptive moves grabbing these IPs and developers... because at some point, when those companies get really SERIOUS about this stuff.
They are doing that because they learnt from both Netflix and Disney. Netflix built a foundation for the streaming services and became a household name in that. People associate TV streaming with Netflix. However Netflix grew using licensed IPs and as streaming became lucrative, a lot of other streaming services popped up and they decided to stream their stuff themselves thus they remove all their stuff from Netflix. And Netflix had to pivot towards homegrown IPs. Disney had a meteoric original rise due to sheer stash of IPs they own (and all the acqusitions they made like Pixar, Lucasfilms, Fox etc.). They literally a house of famous IP. However when you are not the first to the market, you are not considered the household name. Disney still has some recognition but people still "watch Netflix" rather than "watch Disney+".
So Microsoft is collecting IPs in advance. Bethesda gave bunch of IPs and MS jumped on the first opportunity to grab ATVI as not only it provides a foothold in various markets, it gives legendary IPs and Blizzard is a treasure trove of talent. They might be interested in Sega purely from IP standpoint though.
Unlike Sony, Microsoft has a strategic plan (vision) and infrastructure in place thus you can think of something regarding what they are gonna do. With Sony it is hard to say. I stick to idea that Sony won't grab anybody big, won't compete with the tech giants and will continue time exclusivity policy and so on. A lot depends on how the Spartacus service is gonna look like. After that we can think of some ideas for their future growth.