The hero shooter genre is saturated and all of these companies trying to hop in with their own F2P GaaS games are failing because it's just impossible to pull people away from Overwatch or whatever ... Oh wait, Marvel Rivals is taking over. I just don't see it. Fundamentally these games can only succeed if they're good, and they start to shrink when a better game comes along. There's just a fundamental aspect of it being hard to get people to stop playing really good games to play worse ones.
To be clear I'm not fundamentally saying that the blackhole titles can't be dethroned. My original line of discussion here was that it was understandable that Sony chased GaaS titles, because you can see that if you are able to supplant an existing gaas, you stand to reap massive rewards in doing so, and once you're established, it's very hard to supplant you. With respect to the health of the game industry, when we talk about non gaas, and non f2p titles, they are struggling to have the effect they once had.
We used to have rock band, and guitar hero, Sing Star, all sorts of adventure, etc huge game variety, huge innovation, and today, we have very little of that. And recently, we had Baldur's Gate 3, which imo, is probably of game of multi-generations, it's very rare for a game to come along and just re-write what it means to be a single player RPG. They did it. And it won it's awards, it's probably the most played single player game currently will be for some time if you look at hours played. But even then, it's just a fraction of the amount of what a successful gaas can do in terms of reach and hours played. Granted hours played shouldn't matter for a single player game, but if players aren't willing to explore outside of their choice of gaas, that's where I'm seeing the issue here.
And so it's very hard for non-gaas titles, to compete with gaas titles. Every single time your game hits a low point for whatever reason, or even if it doesn't, your friends call you back to play X which is a gaas game, and you put down your SP title and go back at it and never return to your sp game for months.
If we only have SP titles, perhaps many more games would be bought, there would be a larger distribution of the revenue in the gaming industry spread around. Right now, it's very very concentrated in blackhole titles.
This isn't to say blackhole titles can't lose out, but they are often just replaced by another blackhole title.
We can probably see in realtime when a new 'game' is released, especially if it's f2p gaas, you can see the population move from game to game. And then over time, people may move back. But I don't think I've ever seen a game that wasn't designed ground up to be a f2p gaas have that effect. A handful of titles probably came close, maybe Hell Divers II?
To be clear, I enjoy gaas titles as much as the next person. I don't like the idea of F2P gaas titles. I think people should have some skin in the game to stop cheating at the very least, some commitment to play the game beyond the first hour. But if the discussion was, hey, did F2P ruin the health of the game industry? Ie, did kill our variety and innovation in the game design, I think it did. And I don't blame platform holders and developers trying to pivot to survive this.
When I think about the console strategy which is to sell hardware at a loss and make money back up in selling 5-6 titles, or have them subscribe to a service for X number of years.
With F2P Gaas, firstly, both platforms service F2P gaas without subscription. So suddenly, you may not make back the loss on your console.
Selling hardware could be a financial detriment, see Xbox for instance. If people are buying your console and going straight to fortnite and nothing else, that's a major problem for a platform holder, and you better be making decent profits on your console, because the strategy of making it back up in selling 3-5 titles, may not to come to fruition.
and if they are sucked into F2P games that are constantly pushing out new content, constantly trying to get you to come back to keep playing it, they can wait for games to be on sale, or on the used market, or at the library. And so that speaks to why, consoles are quickly to moving to digital, they need find some way to recoup the costs of selling hardware at a deficit, and sadly, they are under massive pressure to sell titles under priced because why pay $100 dollars for a new game, when you can just wait for the price to drop to $40 while you enjoy your F2P/gaas games.