Well, that about wraps it up for blu-ray.

[mckmas8808]

I agree it's way to early, why not wait a couple years and go with something that's a true step up, I wouldn't mind it if they came up with something alot more durable than optical discs for the next gen format.

Wait until when? 2008, 2010, or maybe even 2012? And if we wait until then, there will be people saying, "hey we should wait 1 or 2 more years". The time is now. Of course HD-DVD nor Blu-ray will take off in 2006 anyway so you got to start somewhere. Maybe in 2007 or 2008 the next-gen media will start to become more mainstream.

 

[Acert93]

And unlike you I will be getting over-priced HD movies because of this. After I purchase the PS3 all new purchases of movies will be on the Blu-ray media.

Just hope that neither 1. HD-DVD comes out on top or 2. consumers revolt and demand a higher quality and cheaper medium, which a year or two from now pops up and makes BR/HD-DVD irrelevant.

Like all media formats there needs to be publisher support, hardware solidarity, consumer desire, and hopefully some form of benefit to 1. dump an old format and 2. pay more.

High costs, limited market penetration of HDTVs, fragmented support from publishers and hardware vendors, etc...

Looks like a mess to me! I expect BR to win, but this is just stupid at this point. It would have been nice of the DVD consortium could have kept the group together, but alas the big players are not content on sharing the pie.

 

[c0_re]

People keep saying that but you're forgetting one thing: now we have the internet.
No computer literate has paid for porn ever since we got broadband and eMule or such programs.

Oh please just becasue you like to sit behind your 17 inch monitor and uncomfortable computer desk and jerk it to low res internet garbage doens't mean th rest of the world does.

The internet hasn't even put a dent in the porn industries DVD and video sales, it's just made it's market bigger.(I get DVD porn in the mail every month and I don't even know where it comes from nor do I pay for it) It's quite a bit bigger than Hollywood, mainstream television and video games. Saying they aren't the ones calling a huge % of the shots is pure ignorance.

 

[scooby_dooby]

2007-2008 would be much better timing IMO, there would be better technology that hopefully everyone could get behind, it will give more time to expand the market, be less confusing for consumers, the DEMAND would actually exist which it doesn't really right now since HDTV numbers are still fairly low.

It's too early, Sony's just trying to get a headstart on everyone by locking down rights to the next-gen DVD format, so they can rake in the cash over the next decade, but their timing is off, or maybe it's just perfect, we'll see how it plays out.

 

[zifnab]

Personally I don't care which format comes out on top but I think it boils down to the movie studios and not anything pc related. At the moment you have something like Warner Bros., Paramount Pictures, and Universal Pictures supporting HD-DVD and 20th Century Fox, Walt Disney and Sony Pictures backing Blue-Ray, which from what I understand makes it about a 50/50 division.

 

[Black Dragon37]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1164&Itemid=2

 

[blakjedi]

If BR has to license the WMV9 codec then...

It doesnt matter which format "wins" MS gets paid.

 

[aaronspink]

All that loom and doom for a driver?!

Everything would be doomed then!! My bloody SATA controller on the motherboard i bought needs a bloody driver! My bloody removable hard drive needs a bloody driver! Everything needs a driver!

Don't blame Sony or all other manufacturers in the world for MS's shortcomings in making a decent OS!

Its more than the driver, its the actual codec with play support in Media Player and read and write format support. In order to play blu-ray, the OEM will have to add an additional driver AND pay for an additional media playback program. The issue here is money. If you include HD-DVD with the machine it works and costs the OEM nothing, if you include blu-ray, it will cost the OEM an additional 20-50 in software. 20-50 is make or break for an OEM.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[aaronspink]

Edit: What about if BR becomes the more succesful standard by a huge marigin, will Intel and MS still keep their heads and only support HD-DVD (even if it became virtually extinct)?

What about if HD-DVD becomes the more succesful standard by a huge margin, will Sony still keep their heads and only support blu-ray (even if it became virtually extinct)?

Works two ways ya know.

And just imagine if the PC2006/2007 standard required an HD-DVD drive?

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[wco81]

Just hope that neither 1. HD-DVD comes out on top or 2. consumers revolt and demand a higher quality and cheaper medium, which a year or two from now pops up and makes BR/HD-DVD irrelevant.

Like all media formats there needs to be publisher support, hardware solidarity, consumer desire, and hopefully some form of benefit to 1. dump an old format and 2. pay more.

High costs, limited market penetration of HDTVs, fragmented support from publishers and hardware vendors, etc...

Looks like a mess to me! I expect BR to win, but this is just stupid at this point. It would have been nice of the DVD consortium could have kept the group together, but alas the big players are not content on sharing the pie.

Even if HD-DVD wins, there will be enough BR players out there to form a significant installed base so there should be content support for years. At least as long as Beta and at least as varied as UMD.

HDTV market penetration is limited relatively speaking. But it's expected to hit the high 8 figures within the next 5 years. A lot of dollars are spent every year on those big expensive flat panels so adding even a $1000 player will be common in a lot of transactions.

That said, even if one format folded right away and there was one HD disc format, I don't think adoption will be as fast as DVD.

Regarding the royalties, Sony and Philips dropped their format and got shut out of the DVD royalty pie. But the PS2 helped format adoption. Sony had been working on the optics system for Blu-Ray and continued to do so after DVD launch. They approached Toshiba and all others in the DVD Forum about pooling their efforts. Most agreed to join Sony's work including long-time rival Matsushita.

The notable holdout was Toshiba, which was reaping the lion's share of the DVD royalties, along with Warners. Their top scientist (Yamada or Yamashida) sounds like a pretty egotistical guy who wasn't going to let his baby DVD be trumped by anything else, no matter the technical merits. In fact, the rumors were that while the top brass at Toshiba was entertaining a truce, he wasn't going to give up easily.

 

[aaronspink]

I understand MS...you know, with their OS not supporting BR out of the box. But Intel? Anyone plz explain? I really don't see this (or both) as highly significant in winning the next-gen format war.

.Z

Intel and MS jointly define the PC2xxx standard for minimum capabilities for a PC. Generally these standards are what being able to put the "designed for MS windows" type stickers on the box require.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[aaronspink]

If you need to install a driver to play Blu-Ray wouldn't Dell, HP and Apple already do that trivial install for you before they ship the product?

Likely that will also have to pony up for software to read/write/play blu-ray as well.

If Microsoft plays around with Vista and Media Player to discriminate against Blu-Ray the DoJ will not stand idle, Mr. Monti at the EU compeitition commision will be sharpening his knife and Japan's FTC will be sure to strike.

Who said anything about discriminate. All MS is doing is adding support for HD-DVD. If blu-ray works the same as HD-DVD then it will work. You aren't going to see the various FTCs forcing MS to build support for blu-ray.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[wco81]

Its more than the driver, its the actual codec with play support in Media Player and read and write format support. In order to play blu-ray, the OEM will have to add an additional driver AND pay for an additional media playback program. The issue here is money. If you include HD-DVD with the machine it works and costs the OEM nothing, if you include blu-ray, it will cost the OEM an additional 20-50 in software. 20-50 is make or break for an OEM.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

Well they both use the same video codecs. Audio codecs may be slightly different.

OEM still pays for the HD-DVD drive, the costs of which presumably includes licensing costs?

OEMs which install Blu-Ray drives will have to pay for some other SW player instead of WMP. Also, given Blu-Ray's advantages in writing, they will likely bundle digital editing and mastering software as well.

 

[c0_re]

A big piece of it comes down to the fact that the hardware and the software have to work together in order for the Movie companies to be satisfied with the hardware copyright protection capabuilities(aka waste of time) of either system. If M$ does everything they can to keep BR out of the PC it will be devistating for Sony in the long run.

Unless google hurries up and invents an Operating system and perfects an office sweet, no I'm not joking.

 

[BlueTsunami]

A big piece of it comes down to the fact that the hardware and the software have to work together in order for the Movie companies to be satisfied with the hardware copyright protection capabuilities(aka waste of time) of either system. If M$ does everything they can to keep BR out of the PC it will be devistating for Sony in the long run.

Unless google hurries up and invents an Operating system and perfects an office sweet, no I'm not joking.

That type of business practice (it would be naive to think it doesn't happen) is something that would force developers and Movie companies to Linux. IMHO Linux (a good stable version) would be good enough for things of that nature. So forget Google. Also..you have OS X.

So in short, I believe Microsoft better tread lightly with how they strongarm certain things with their OS. Being in a age where theres now "choice" MS doesn't have the leverage being the only OS out there, like they used to.

EDIT: Open Office and Star Office should be considered

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I don't think Sony have the gumption to pull it off, but potentially they could design an OS from scratch (at least frontend) to be far more intuitve then existing WIMP interfaces that have been developed on legacy principles. There's LOADS of home users who really don't understand how to use MS OS computers. An OS on PS3 that works bloody simply (and there'd be no driver conflict issues or such jazz to confuse thanks to uniform hardware) could find a lot of fans. Don't get me wrong, I quite like the way Win2k + OS operate, but a lot of people don't.

That'd provide an alternative platform to Windows where MS support of BluRay doesn't matter

[/pipedreams]

 

[expletive]

And just imagine if the PC2006/2007 standard required an HD-DVD drive?

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

Hadnt considered that, its a good point. With Windows MCE apparently taking off now, Imagine Vista version of MCE require HD-DVD, talk about an installed base...

Too bad for HD-DVD the timing was wrong for xbox 360, install base for the 360 and WMCE may have actually worked.

J

 

[_phil_]

I don't think Sony have the gumption to pull it off, but potentially they could design an OS from scratch (at least frontend) to be far more intuitve then existing WIMP interfaces that have been developed on legacy principles. There's LOADS of home users who really don't understand how to use MS OS computers. An OS on PS3 that works bloody simply (and there'd be no driver conflict issues or such jazz to confuse thanks to uniform hardware) could find a lot of fans. Don't get me wrong, I quite like the way Win2k + OS operate, but a lot of people don't.

That'd provide an alternative platform to Windows where MS support of BluRay doesn't matter

[/pipedreams]

I completly agree with that ,windows ergonomy sucks.And for most people ,a pc with windows is over complicated for the needs they have ,way too complex and heavy.
Much Like having to drive a full lengh truck to go buy bread ,and without a licence.There is room for improvement in user friendly-ness.

 

[Acert93]

I completly agree with that ,windows ergonomy sucks.And for most people ,a pc with windows is over complicated for the needs they have ,way too complex and heavy.
Much Like having to drive a full lengh truck to go buy bread ,and without a licence.There is room for improvement in user friendly-ness.

And yet Mac does not gain much market share and Bob failed.

Interestingly one of my favorite applications (BibleWorks) has 3 modes: Beginner, Intermediate, and Power user. The GUI and features--and how you access them--is different for the three levels. I use Power user because it allows me command line use for search and parsing ancient texts quickly, but for those unfamiliar with the application with some knowledge of the subject at hand can use Intermediate. And for those who are basically looking for basic information at their finger tips with no desire for indepth research Beginner works.

I have long thought Windows should go to such a model. But with so many different Apps and different companies/products that could be a MAJOR hurdle. And giving people to customize it themselves introduces the issue of the fact anyone using it has no clue what they need!

 

[Lysander]

sony to create new OS , how much capital spending shall be needed for that