Warner Exclusive Blu-ray= More PS3 sold?

[AzBat]

Where has analog been shut off? And you still wouldn't really need a digital TV, just a stupid box that pretty much every cable company will give you with a package.

He's talking about the upcoming switch to digital broadcasts. I did not read it as it already happened. To prepare for the Feb 2009 switch to digital only broadcasts the US Congress passed legislation to give out 1-2 $40 rebate coupons to all U.S. households. These rebates go to the purchase of converter digital TV boxes. You can apply for them here...

https://www.dtv2009.gov/

I signed up for 2 coupons since I don't subscribe to cable or satellite. They said I would start getting my rebates in the mail around March when they expect stores to start carrying them. Unfortunately the rebates are only good for 90-days after they are mailed.

The interesting thing here is that cable and satellite TV customers will not have to do anything different. They will still be able watch their programming as always. This only affects those customers getting TV programming via over-the-air (OTA)broadcasts.

If you start going to stores like Walmart and Best Buy you'll see that almost all non HDTVs are now including the digital ATSC tuners. I believe my in-laws just bought a really dirt cheap 20" CRT TV that had one. Which is nice considering the digital ATSC tuner is the only way to get NBC in our area. They switched to digital OTA only last spring. As time moves on you'll start seeing all the rest of them do it too.

Tommy McClain

 

[wco81]

Not all cable subscribers are digital cable subscribers or have set tops.

Cable systems having to send analog signals is a big issue as they try to increase bandwidth to compete with satellite.

I believe Dish and Direct TV are all digital and combined have like 20-30 million subscribers. That alone is 20-30% of households. Add in digital cable.

So if CEA was playing fast and loose with the definition of digital TV to arrive at that 50% households, it doesn't add up.

 

[AzBat]

Not all cable subscribers are digital cable subscribers or have set tops.

But you're under the impression that those subscribers will still need a converter or ATSC tuner, and they won't. Business as usual for those customers.

Tommy McClain

 

[wco81]

Editorial about Blu-Ray adoption boosting PS3.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?o...k=view&id=8734&Itemid=50&limit=1&limitstart=2

They also have a podcast at gametheoryshow.com or iTunes discussing it.

Not novel arguments.

 

[patsu]

Ok, this is in response to the question of how many HD movies were sold last year:
http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2008-01-07-dvd-sales-slippage_N.htm

Left inset:

No. of discs sold in 2007:

Blu-ray: 5.7 million (64% or $172.8 million)
HD DVD: 3.2 million (36% or $97.2 million)

Discs sold since inception:

Blu-ray: 6.1 million (62%)
HD DVD: 3.7 million (38%)

Source: Redhill Group

 

[AlphaWolf]

Ok, this is in response to the question of how many HD movies were sold last year:
http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2008-01-07-dvd-sales-slippage_N.htm

Left inset:

more than $30 average per title? I thought they were cheap? Or is that dollar value just wrong.

 

[wco81]

Good find patsu.

Now is that global or US only?

The combined Blu-Ray and HD-DVD for 2007 is about $260 million.

The Warner Bros. exec. said at CES that DVD is a $42 billion market. Now is that global or only US.

So that figure is indeed between .5 and 1% of the DVD market.

Of course, some people have AVS claims at a similar point in the life of the DVD, the sales were lower.

Then others claim that Blu-Ray will never catch on like DVD, that really digital distribution will take over.

 

[NavNucST3]

more than $30 average per title? I thought they were cheap? Or is that dollar value just wrong.

The retail price for discs is ridiculous, 34.95 is not uncommon, I have purchase all but 5 of my movies from Amazon.com, even then the HD DVD combos are 27.95 (minus my ten percent off), normal price I pay is $20 (again minus the ten percent off). Total I have about 70 HD DVDs.

 

[AlphaWolf]

The retail price for discs is ridiculous, 34.95 is no uncommon, I have purchase all but 5 of my movies from Amazon.com, even then the HD DVD combos are 27.95 (minus my ten percent off), normal price I pay is $20 (again minus the ten percent off). Total I have about 70 HD DVDs.

I only brought it up, because every time I mention the high price being a barrier to adoption, people always jump in telling me how they get all their disks for 1/2 price or some buy one get one free. I suppose the number does include some more expensive multi disc titles. /shrug

 

[ninzel]

This digital switch will not push more HDTVs,content and lower pricing will.

 

[wco81]

Well what's selling HDTVs are big sporting events. A lot of those people do not make movies a high priority.

Now, maybe gaming could be another driver of HDTV sales. But maybe there aren't enough gamers who'd buy HDTVs overall.

DVD sales in 2007 wasn't as great as the industry wanted. And one factor is competition from games which depressed DVD sales.

 

[NavNucST3]

I only brought it up, because every time I mention the high price being a barrier to adoption, people always jump in telling me how they get all their disks for 1/2 price or some buy one get one free. I suppose the number does include some more expensive multi disc titles. /shrug

You are correct, it is definitely a barrier.

 

[quest55720]

Good find patsu.

Now is that global or US only?

The combined Blu-Ray and HD-DVD for 2007 is about $260 million.

The Warner Bros. exec. said at CES that DVD is a $42 billion market. Now is that global or only US.

So that figure is indeed between .5 and 1% of the DVD market.

Of course, some people have AVS claims at a similar point in the life of the DVD, the sales were lower.

Then others claim that Blu-Ray will never catch on like DVD, that really digital distribution will take over.

DVD also did not have a console pushing its format year one. DVD did not have BoGo after BoGo either. The numbers should heavily side with blu with those 2 advantages.

DD is not taking over DVD will reign for many many more years to come.

 

[patsu]

Good find patsu.

Now is that global or US only?

The combined Blu-Ray and HD-DVD for 2007 is about $260 million.

The Warner Bros. exec. said at CES that DVD is a $42 billion market. Now is that global or only US.

So that figure is indeed between .5 and 1% of the DVD market.

Of course, some people have AVS claims at a similar point in the life of the DVD, the sales were lower.

Then others claim that Blu-Ray will never catch on like DVD, that really digital distribution will take over.

Beats me. I am going to assume the numbers are for worldwide.

As for the selling price of Blu-ray movies. It's usually $15 (BOGO/50% off) to $30 (list price). Some multi-disc releases may cost more. IMHO, a title like Planet Earth is worth every penny. A movie like Talledega Nights should stay free ^_^

The rest will be up to the market to respond/decide, and up to BDA to adjust.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Some parts of the article suggest that it's US data - I'd sure expect more then 90 million homes to have DVD players around the world. If this is the case for BR sales in the US then they're finally picking up some momentum. It still doesn't make every PS3 owner a HD enthusiast though... especially when you compare the number of players/movies ratio to HD DVD, which has about 4-600K users in the US at most.

 

[Carl B]

...especially when you compare the number of players/movies ratio to HD DVD, which has about 4-600K users in the US at most.

HD DVD has about a million players sold in the US, when you include the 360 add-on. Anyway I've never understood the attach rate argument anyway; if people are buying more BD's, people are buying more BD's. The attach rate isn't something inherent to the format, just a product of a lot of the default user base not being engaged in HD purchases. But so long as the active user base is larger overall - which it is - then what is there to lament?

 

[SPM]

This digital switch will not push more HDTVs,content and lower pricing will.

It will push HDTV adoption. People will be forced to go down to their electrical retail store to buy a new TV when analogue TV's go off air. About 85% of TV sets displayed/sold at retail outlets are HDTVs, so the chances are that they will walk out with an HDTV even if they are not really sure what it is.

 

[SPM]

HD DVD has about a million players sold in the US, when you include the 360 add-on. Anyway I've never understood the attach rate argument anyway; if people are buying more BD's, people are buying more BD's. The attach rate isn't something inherent to the format, just a product of a lot of the default user base not being engaged in HD purchases. But so long as the active user base is larger overall - which it is - then what is there to lament?

I agree. The attach rate has meaning in the case of games consoles where the media is tied into one player, because it tells you the return you are getting on your console subsidies. It is meaningless in the case of movie players because a movie disc is not tied to a particular manufacturer's player. This limits the ability to subsidize the player and get the money back by charging a premium on content produced by third parties.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Anyway I've never understood the attach rate argument anyway; if people are buying more BD's, people are buying more BD's.

It makes a difference if you're looking at the PS3 only. Even with 6 million movies sold, that's at most 1.7 movies per console, but we know that those who buy movies will get at least 5-10; which still means that less then third of the user base is interested in BR movies at best. But considering that a lot of standalone players have been sold as well, the actual percentage should be even lower.

It's an interesting topic for several reasons, like does the inclusion of the BR drive help the case of the PS3, what are users doing if they don't really care for the AA exclusive games, and so on.

 

[patsu]

You need to take temporal changes into consideration. If available titles and interest in BR has indeed picked up, recent attach ratios will be higher than old ratios.

So unless we have regular and accurate data, it's hard to draw specific conclusions about increase/decrease in BR momentum based on 1 data point. The average LTD attach ratio doesn't really cap the most recent attach ratio *if* adoption is accelerating.