there is no NV47, but G70 is on the way

[Kombatant]

MS had to cut back on a number of Longhorn features in order to be able to finish the OS within the current decade. So yes, WGF 2.0 will come after Longhorn. The thing I don't know atm is when a WGF 2.0 beta will surface

 

[Demirug]

MS had to cut back on a number of Longhorn features in order to be able to finish the OS within the current decade. So yes, WGF 2.0 will come after Longhorn. The thing I don't know atm is when a WGF 2.0 beta will surface

They will have no draft for the spec until later this year. We will not see a beta before this draft is ready.

I am still not sure if WGF 2.0 is cut from the longhorn featureset because there is no offical statement for this cut like we have see for WinFS. Maybe meltdown will give us some new informations about this.

 

[Kombatant]

I am still not sure if WGF 2.0 is cut from the longhorn featureset because there is no offical statement for this cut like we have see for WinFS.

Plus, I had forgotten about this: http://img100.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img100&image=ati2fj5se.jpg

Edit: ...and this: http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1558,1791702,00.asp

 

[Ailuros]

unified shaders probably has nothing to do with sm3 or 4.

Exactly my point. If anything call them shaders.

Product refreshes are there to lower manufacturing costs since we won't see the g70 and r520 magically dissapear one r600 and.. g90? appear.

R520 is on 90nm and so would a hypothetical R580.

What would you need a high end refresh for, when next generation high end HW would be only a few months theoretically apart?

To make things clearer I thought up to now that IHVs have projected WGF2.0 GPUs for either late 2006 or early 2007; in that case another high end refresh a la R580 makes absolutely sense. Does it make as much sense if R600 would hypothetically appear in mid 2006? R520 doesn't look to be earlier available than late summer/early fall.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Ail - when are your expectations for R580 and G70 refresh?

 

[_xxx_]

R520 doesn't look to be earlier available than late summer/early fall.

I already see nV making a huge party tomorrow

Just imagine how nice it is for the shareholders, knowing nV will have the fastest card around without competition for a few months...

(if it should really turn out that way, which we don't know for sure of course)

 

[_xxx_]

Ail - when are your expectations for R580 and G70 refresh?

G70 refresh definitely around xmas, the best time for selling lotsa stuff.

As for R580, we don't even know when R520 will be available, so no predictions here.

 

[Demirug]

Ail - when are your expectations for R580 and G70 refresh?

G70 refresh definitely around xmas, the best time for selling lotsa stuff.

A G70 refresh could be a little bit tricky if Sony and nVidia have an deal that say that the PS3 will have the fastet nVidia GPU at launchday.

As it looks like we will see GF7 cards with >= 470MHz core there is not much way to go to the 550MHz RSX.

 

[_xxx_]

A G70 refresh could be a little bit tricky if Sony and nVidia have an deal that say that the PS3 will have the fastet nVidia GPU at launchday.

That's something that can't be measured, though. PS3 games will still run faster (for known reasons - dedicated HW, tight OS etc.) and there will probably be no benchmarks for the PS3 anyway, so how would you compare it? They can still say "RSX is the fastest chip, blah", even if that should not be the case.

 

[Ailuros]

Ail - when are your expectations for R580 and G70 refresh?

Earliest holiday 2005 (at least for one), latest early 2006. I really have no idea but this stuff sounds like last year's "R520 to be released in Q1 2005" speculations, whereby whatever ATI's internal plans are it sounded to damn close to the R420/480 releases to me.

It is also my understanding that both IHVs would be aiming for GDDR4 for those refreshes; manufacturers might be confident that they'll have close to the end of the year good enough availability, but I usually tend to be a bit more conservative with those kind of estimates.

How impossible is it actually that one or both IHVs actually abandon the idea of high end refreshes and release str8 away a first WGF2.0 incarnation?

By the way the manufacturing process question wasn't a coincidence; if you'd tell me that they still stay on low-k 90nm, than anything goes for 2006. Anything lower it sounds like another too optimistic projection to me.

All IMHLO

 

[Ailuros]

Ail - when are your expectations for R580 and G70 refresh?

G70 refresh definitely around xmas, the best time for selling lotsa stuff.

A G70 refresh could be a little bit tricky if Sony and nVidia have an deal that say that the PS3 will have the fastet nVidia GPU at launchday.

As it looks like we will see GF7 cards with >= 470MHz core there is not much way to go to the 550MHz RSX.

Is it definite by now that RSX has the exact same amount of quads as G70 (honest question)?

Might be just some funky idea of mine, but they could eventually increase performance too that way.

 

[DegustatoR]

G70 refresh should happen Spring'06 IMHO. Don't forget that NV can release G70Ultra sometimes this Autumn to counter R5(2/8)0.

As for R580 being a refresh of R520 -- the more R520 slips from it's previous target release date, the more possible become the scenario where ATI releases R580 instead of R520 or releases them both at the same time -- i'd say Autumn'05 if this will be the case.

 

[_xxx_]

G70 refresh should happen Spring'06 IMHO. Don't forget that NV can release G70Ultra sometimes this Autumn to counter R5(2/8)0.

Well that would be a refressh too, wouldn't it?

 

[dizietsma]

We must be getting close to G70 now if we have gone off talking about it and are now starting to talk about the refresh part

Normally what happens is I get very excited about a new product, then it is released and after 24 hours of reading reviews familiarity breeds contempt and I'm starting to get apathetic about the whole thing.

With G70 I think I'm bored already. I hope they do chuck something in rather radical and unexpected to refresh my jaded pallette.

 

[Ailuros]

G70 refresh should happen Spring'06 IMHO. Don't forget that NV can release G70Ultra sometimes this Autumn to counter R5(2/8)0.

Spring 06' and then Summer 06' a WGF2.0 GPU? That's what I am wondering about. WGF2.0 GPUs still sound to me like late 2006 or even later products.

As for R580 being a refresh of R520 -- the more R520 slips from it's previous target release date, the more possible become the scenario where ATI releases R580 instead of R520 or releases them both at the same time -- i'd say Autumn'05 if this will be the case.

The instead part would make more sense, only I just don't have the slightest idea with what kind of memory they'd build it with

 

[JoshMST]

Oooh! Oooh! Oooh! Did someone ask for speculation on a refresh? I want to join in!

Haha.

Here is my guess... I think the design will be taped out by the end of summer for the G70 refresh on 90 nm. NVIDIA could be in a position to release this part in early Winter 2005, but I think this will depend on how ATI responds with the R520 this Summer, and if ATI can produce these parts in good quantities. My guess is that the R520 will probably be the faster part for this release, but again if they can't deliver as many parts as the market demands, NVIDIA will have an advantage (though the G70 is a big die on 110 nm, they apparently have excellent yields on that process).

So, if R520 really kicks ass, and ATI can deliver parts on demand, then I think the G70 90 nm refresh will come in late Fall. But if R520 is not that much faster, and ATI has issues delivering, then NVIDIA will continue along the same track as they did with the 6800 Ultra. While the X800 XT PE and X850 XT PE were faster than the 6800 Ultra, until earlier this year ATI couldn't deliver these parts as the market demanded, so NVIDIA dropped the initial 6800 GT/Ultra refresh (10% to 15% clockspeed increase, fixed video portion, PCI-E native, etc.) and kept chugging along with the NV40. So if this is the case, then I would expect a late Winter release of the G70 refresh (which would give NVIDIA a lot of time to tune the part, get good yields going, and have adequate parts available on release).

Lots of jockeying about between the two companies.

 

[Geo]

It will be interesting to see how long that $600 price holds up. It may not for very long --was it GF DDR or GF2 that started in the stratosphere for about two months?

That price surprised me for a 256MB board. You say good yields, but that price suggests it might be a pretty expensive chip to make at that size, even with "good yields".

 

[Rys]

That price surprised me for a 256MB board. You say good yields, but that price suggests it might be a pretty expensive chip to make at that size, even with "good yields".

It smells very much like a high price just to make money. GeForce 6 sells like buggery, GeForce 7 will do too, I'd imagine. So why not make an arseload of margin from the early adopters who'll clamour to pick up a GTX as soon as they can?

I'm not convinced they've got a real load of chips to sell (at all, really), but the price smells like "yay, margins!!!!!!!" to me.

 

[KimB]

--was it GF DDR or GF2 that started in the stratosphere for about two months?

Prices of high-end graphics cards have been going up pretty steadily. The GeForce DDR started at $300. The GF2 Ultra was really high-priced ($400 or $500, I forget exactly).

 

[DegustatoR]

Well that would be a refressh too, wouldn't it?

Eeeh, no That would be another card in the line-up. Refresh as i understand it is something that comes _instead_ of something, not _in addition_ to something.