The non-standard game interfaces discussion thread (move, voice, vitality, etc.)

[Shifty Geezer]

This peripheral discussion keeps coming up, but there are plenty of peripherals being overlooked. As mentioned The balance board but there is also the original DualShock. Even the EyeToy did much better than people think, if you just look at Europe.

A million sales in four months in Europe. 10 million sales worldwide, let's attribute 8 million of those to Europe. 40 million PS2's in Europe, that's 20% in seven years. How can one look at that relatively huge success for a peripheral and consider 10% penetration for Kinect in one Christmas is a likely outcome?

As for Dual Shock, it was successful enough to be come the default controller, which is going to help install base. Did it sell to 10% of PS1 users over it's first Christmas? Can't find any numbers. It's also something of a fringe case as it was an upgrade to the existing controller and not a standalone device. Every PS gamer would have had an interest in it, unlike other peripherals that aren't intrinsically going to appeal to the existing user base who bought the console for a different input format.

All in all, that 3 million expectation doesn't seem to have much statistical basis to me. There may be the market research to support that estimate, but not the historical precedent.

 

[Squilliam]

That's a fringe case. You can't expect to sell the freak successes, just as no non-Halo or GT or CODMW game in development now can honestly expect to sell 10+ million units, even if these franchises can do. Looking at the statistical average having filtered out the high and low anamolies, a realistic, optimistic target IMO is 10%. That's not to say Kinect can't aspire for better, or achieve better, but a target of 3 million this Christmas alone is a very aggressive target.

But thats a target based off market research and known models as well as their perfect knowledge of what they are presently doing. You're basing your assumptions of whether they could or would hit that target on much more imperfect information and previous unrelated releases of peripherals.

You have to consider for whom they are targetting, the level of hype/anticipation and the level of support that Kinect already has. All of these are already ahead of every peripheral released thus far. So with all due respect, to paint Kinect with the same brush as every other peripheral release is asinine.

Interesting point. I started PS3 voice chat using PSEye, no headset. Sadly they didn't filter any game audio so there was terrible feedback, and headsets was a step forward. Now we're looking at doing away with headsets again because MS actually appreciate what's needed with a standing mic for VC!

I guess this is one of the benefits of a standardised approach. When you release new hardware like Kinect you can change how the system handles the audio in one simple step. Since every PSN game is pretty much roll their own, they would probably have to patch most games individually for the same effect.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You have to consider for whom they are targetting, the level of hype/anticipation and the level of support that Kinect already has. All of these are already ahead of every peripheral released thus far. So with all due respect, to paint Kinect with the same brush as every other peripheral release is asinine.

As I say above in my reply to Arwin:

All in all, that 3 million expectation doesn't seem to have much statistical basis to me. There may be the market research to support that estimate, but not the historical precedent.

My initial response was to eastmen's post:

it should easily do 3m sales. I expect move to push just as many if not a bit more.
3m is not alot when you sit down and think about it .

When you sit down and think about it, 3 million is a lot! Again, I'm not saying Kinect can't do it, but what's the thinking that says 3 million units sold over one holiday is going to be a walk in the park? That's pretty speculative thinking. Again, it may not be wrong. There's a good argument to be made in Kinect's potential. However, I stand by my position that to target 3 million units is aggressive and to sell 3 million units over Christmas would be an exceptional achievement and not something one would expect. Hundreds of millions of advertising dollars is certainly going to help!

 

[Rangers]

Well he did specifically mention retailer pre-orders as his basis for 3 million.

And then there's the 100m marketing campaign. To a certain extent that will almost force sales. That's over 30 dollars marketing per Kinect if they sell 3m.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Well he did specifically mention retailer pre-orders as his basis for 3 million.

Greenberg's estimates based on feedback is 3 million. Eastmen didn't support his claims with any references, only saying it'd be easy, and I say there's not much evidence to suggest selling millions of a peripheral over one Christmas is ever easy.

And then there's the 100m marketing campaign.

More than that,...

The company is spending "hundreds of millions" of dollars in marketing

 

[Grall]

How can one look at that relatively huge success for a peripheral and consider 10% penetration for Kinect in one Christmas is a likely outcome?

Have they even manufactured over 3 million kinect units yet? Somehow I doubt it.

Regardless, 10% market penetration in a few months could perhaps PERHAPS be possible, if the product was called HALO Kinect, and had Halo support, and a string of Halo sequels lined up behind it. However, that's not the case now is it.

Also, it costs a hundred fifty fuckin dollars. It's not a trivial sum of money. So no, it's not going to reach 10% in one christmas.


Furthermore, I'm a bit amused by whichever honch at MS - whatsisface - suggested that if a kinect game needed buttons a user could just hold a 360 pad in one hand. Sure they COULD, but in a world where there's actually a word for "wiinjuries", is that really a good idea swinging that thing around considering it doesn't have a wrist strap or anything?

I can't wait for the first youtube video of a 360 pad flying through a 50-inch plasma TV glass panel. Also, considering the 360 pad is BY FAR the heaviest pad of them all - particulary with a chatpad attached - if it was to strike anyone in the face, the result wouldn't just be a black eye - but also a crushed orbital most likely...

 

[zed]

This concerns kinect + move
3 million seems bugger all by the end of 2010, less than 10% uptake!
With the amount of hype + marketing (esp from MS, sony looks like they're relying on word of mouth!! which is risky to say the least)
MS/sony would both be very disappointed if they dont achieve 3 million by the end of the year

just checking various amazon's ATM I think its safe to say 3million by years end is very achievable

amazon.com
#3 Playstation Move Starter Bundle
#4 PlayStation Move Controller
#5 PlayStation Move Navigation Controller
#12 Kinect Sensor with Kinect Adventures!
#19 PlayStation 3 320GB System with PlayStation Move Bundle

amazon.de
#6 PlayStation MoveStarterPaket
#10 PlayStation Move Motion-Controlle
#12 PlayStation Move Navigation-Controller
no kinect

amazon.co.uk
#7 PlayStation Move Starter Pack with PlayStation Eye Camera, Move Controller and Starter Dis
#8 PlayStation Move Navigation Controller
#15 Playstation Move Controller
#51 Kinect Sensor

amazon.fr
#12 Manette de détection de mouvements Playstation Move
#23 Pack découverte PlayStation Move
#31 Manette de navigation Playstation Move
no kinect

 

[Squilliam]

When you sit down and think about it, 3 million is a lot! Again, I'm not saying Kinect can't do it, but what's the thinking that says 3 million units sold over one holiday is going to be a walk in the park? That's pretty speculative thinking. Again, it may not be wrong. There's a good argument to be made in Kinect's potential. However, I stand by my position that to target 3 million units is aggressive and to sell 3 million units over Christmas would be an exceptional achievement and not something one would expect. Hundreds of millions of advertising dollars is certainly going to help!

Im not denying that 3M sales are a lot. If Kinect were simply being sold as a standalone for $149 it would be much more expensive.

The Xbox 360 sold 4.3M units give or take over the same period of release as Kinect last year. However sales are tracking around 20% higher, probably will remain about 15% higher for the remainder of the year due to increased demand from the revised Xbox 360 console. The real question is what the final attach rate per console the break down of Kinect to non Kinect SKUs end up with and how much if anything the overall sales of the console would be increased by Kinect given the present trends.

3M as a total doesn't sound as bad if it is broken down as say 1.5M new consoles with Kinect and 1.5M existing consoles with Kinect as well for instance.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

When you sit down and think about it, 3 million is a lot! Again, I'm not saying Kinect can't do it, but what's the thinking that says 3 million units sold over one holiday is going to be a walk in the park? That's pretty speculative thinking. Again, it may not be wrong. There's a good argument to be made in Kinect's potential. However, I stand by my position that to target 3 million units is aggressive and to sell 3 million units over Christmas would be an exceptional achievement and not something one would expect. Hundreds of millions of advertising dollars is certainly going to help!

Definitely speculative thinking on my part and no statistical analysis to bolster my opinion on it. But I'm personally going to be quite surprised if MS doesn't sell every single Kinect they manage to make for the Holiday season.

This is purely a gut reaction based on non-gamer chatter on the street here. It's quite similar to what I was hearing when the Wii launch was approaching. Assuming no price gouging due to shortages as with the Wii launch, the Kinect bundle (base 299 bundle) will actually be cheaper than what many people paid for a Wii during the first year or so it was out. Sure it's retail price was only 249 USD, but it was difficult to find it for that price when it came into stock at many places.

Does this mean Kinect will hit the same consumer buttons as the Wii did? Maybe not, but from what I'm hearing informally, it's got the same sort of disdain from Core gamers and the same sort of bubbling interest from non-core gamers.

Obviously not scientific by any means. And I'm quite prepared to be wrong and surprised. But, IMO, I'm not seeing many informal indications that it won't sell like hotcakes, at least in the US.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

3M as a total doesn't sound as bad if it is broken down as say 1.5M new consoles with Kinect and 1.5M existing consoles with Kinect as well for instance.

That's a good point. The possibilty of new unit owners buying the bundle means they aren't having to chase such a large initial uptake among existing owners. Then again, people were buying PS2's for EyeToy - it's still a pretty huge target!

If Sony and MS hit such targets, I wonder how much credit will have to go to Nintendo, and how much is down to MS/Sony's positioning and marketing?

 

[Squilliam]

That's a good point. The possibilty of new unit owners buying the bundle means they aren't having to chase such a large initial uptake among existing owners. Then again, people were buying PS2's for EyeToy - it's still a pretty huge target!

Thanks! I remember when I worked in retail. Eyetoy WAS extremely popular, they just never figured out anything cool and sustainable to do with it. It was a FAD in every sense although perhaps it didn't need to be, maybe Kinect can correct that.

Anyway the price of the Move PS3 bundle is too much for new adopters whilst the price of the Kinect bundle at $299 is just right whereas on the other hand the price of the accessory for existing owners is too high and the price of Move accessory is just right, so it seems. Its a funny turn of events really. Do you think they might do a sly price cut early in 2011 to keep the momentum going and to swing their uptake towards present owners? Even something as little as a $30 price cut might be enough to sway those already on the fence.

If Sony and MS hit such targets, I wonder how much credit will have to go to Nintendo, and how much is down to MS/Sony's positioning and marketing?

60% to Nintendo for paving the way and 40% for MS/Sony for not screwing it up is my pick.

P.S. Civilization 5 is coming out soon... You're buying, right?

 

[eastmen]

I do wonder if they only have 3m to sell.

 

[Rangers]

Well if Kinect/Move does catch on, I think Nintendo's shown us there's certain things to expect from the casual market at it's best times, including not a lot of software sales beyond a few titles.

Nintendo's formula for profit was a few first party sales that sell unbelievably and are evergreen, and strong hardware profits.

Just something to think about. MS/Sony are probably going to have to start by basing Kinect/Move on hardware profitability imo. You're not going to get major third party software sales most likely.

Of course I think it can be pretty dangerous for Nintendo in thise sense, what separates hardcore from casual is graphics. What separates casual from hardcore is motion control. Now Sony/MS have added the latter, but Nintendo cant easily add the former.

 

[Nesh]

Well if Kinect/Move does catch on, I think Nintendo's shown us there's certain things to expect from the casual market at it's best times, including not a lot of software sales beyond a few titles.

Nintendo's formula for profit was a few first party sales that sell unbelievably and are evergreen, and strong hardware profits.

Just something to think about. MS/Sony are probably going to have to start by basing Kinect/Move on hardware profitability imo. You're not going to get major third party software sales most likely.

Of course I think it can be pretty dangerous for Nintendo in thise sense, what separates hardcore from casual is graphics. What separates casual from hardcore is motion control. Now Sony/MS have added the latter, but Nintendo cant easily add the former.

I dont think Sony and MS need to start profiting from HW and first party games only like Nintendo.

Nintendo relies only on casuals and partly did the job for MS and Sony when it comes to the popularity of Motion controls. The market is going to join platforms that can offer Hardcore and Casual gaming. Hardcore and casuals will have motion and standard controlled experiences with prettier visuals available to them and the separation between hardcore "standard control" gamers and casual "motion control" gamers will become foggier. That because motion controls will become available for hardcore games (killzone 3) and casuals will try some of these hardcore games and vise versa (with the casual games and standard controls)

They will continue to profit like they did before while they will expand their market and gain from that additional segment as well. Because unlike Nintendo they dont rely only on casuals, and offer a bigger range of options to all.

 

[obonicus]

I can see a few core gamers this Christmas thinking 250GB Xbox 360 = $299, Kinect 250GB= $399 but wireless mic = $49 therefore Kinect real cost = $50. The killer application is really that microphone for online multiplayer. Its probably better than the wireless.

Leaving behind how this logic didn't work so well for the PS3, what exactly about the Kinect bundle will push 'core gamers' to buy a 360, if they haven't already, and how many 'core gamers' are even left at this point?

 

[zed]

Whoever comes up with a porn title is gonna sell truckloads
Im curious are there any like titles comig to either the move/kinect

you might wanna play with the curtains closed though

 

[Squilliam]

Leaving behind how this logic didn't work so well for the PS3, what exactly about the Kinect bundle will push 'core gamers' to buy a 360, if they haven't already, and how many 'core gamers' are even left at this point?

To be honest, im not sure. However I know they are the ones likely to replace their console 1/2 times a console generation due to wearing it out or getting bored.

 

[rabidrabbit]

Whoever comes up with a porn title is gonna sell truckloads
Im curious are there any like titles comig to either the move/kinect

you might wanna play with the curtains closed though

That looks... extremely boring!!
If that is the revolution in gaming, I definitely don't want to be part of it. That's dumbing down of gaming, makes me sad

 

[eastmen]

That looks... extremely boring!!
If that is the revolution in gaming, I definitely don't want to be part of it. That's dumbing down of gaming, makes me sad

Looks like a good first step for me. It be nice if by walking in place it would move me foward and leaning back would make me walk back. When my head tilts up the screen follows and all that jazz.

 

[rabidrabbit]

Looks like a good first step for me. It be nice if by walking in place it would move me foward and leaning back would make me walk back. When my head tilts up the screen follows and all that jazz.

First step backwards, surely.
The game doesn't seem to require any kind of aiming, just flicking your wrist to cast the spell.
I'm sure Kinect is capable of more, I just can't understand why the games shown thus fare really haven't shown anything more sophisticated than simple gesture recognition.