I don't agree with almost any of this. Let's collate some of these points.
1. People don't want to get Move, because they can do all these games with the DS3.
I disagree completely. The success of the Wii is primarily because people do want to play games with a different controller. Nintendo made all these Nintendo titles for the GameCube as well. As for interest among existing PS3 owners, well ...
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=58085
2. Tacking on motion controls onto an existing genre doesn't work
Obviously tacking on motion controls to an existing genre doesn't necessarily work, no. But there are a fair few game types where the dualshock is the controller that has been 'tacked on', and it's been a long and hard process in some cases to make that workable. Basically, everything that was originally designed to do with the mouse that has moved to consoles is an example of 'dualshock controls tacked on' by your definition, and only work now because of a long period of refinement. Contrast that with a pointer like the wii - even the limited pointer of the Wii sans + was fairly successful for first person shooters. The main bottleneck here seemed more that noone wanted to trade HD console graphics and online functionlaity for Wii graphics and online functionality in this genre. But that's just fps - there have been games for all sorts of games (sports like golf, tennis, bowling, etc.) long before motion controls were around for which a motion controller just makes a tonne more sense and is much less of a 'tacked on' style experience than a 1:1 motion controller.
3. PS3 doesn't have the library of Motion Control games.
50+ games gaining support so far in the first 6 months isn't bad. If you take the best selling genres across the Wii platform, the PS3 has pretty decent alternatives these days for most of them. There are plenty of games among there that are Move specific, and of the genre that people bought the Wii for, so they wouldn't be buying it for just playing the same games either. And for the rest, see my answer to the two points above.
4. Kids will still be better off with the Wii, particularly on a secondary non SD tv
Probably, yes. They may be even better off with just a DS. But the age at which a PS3 is accessible to them and the range of games that are accessible to them goes down thanks to the Move controller. Super Rub-a-Dub was a great success with small children (3-6yo). Kids from friends in our street tended to walk past our window at some point asking their parents if they could play the Duck game again, or the Dancing game (I had the DDR mat out there for a while).
Killer app probably not no. But the genre (including Civilisation c.s.) used to be very popular. It's a perfect example of a mouse control method that didn't translate well to dualshock, despite some valiant efforts recently.
Yeah? The Wii expanded the market thanks to its motion controls, but now all grannies are playing Mario Galaxy? I think not. I'm even willing to bet that a lot of the non motion controller games that are popular on the Wii right now are popular because of their handheld heritage more than anything else.
Maybe. But don't forget that Playstation 1 and 2 sold more than double what the Wii sold so far. So maybe Nintendo's market demographic isn't as expanded as you think, or otherwise maybe Sony's platform has enough potential to have and get the games people want to play.
I'm sure that if you read that again, you'll see that you're not making sense anymore.
And they aren't?
Because the Wii hardware lacks the capability to deliver on that front.
The same held for Motion controls when the Wii came to market. Except of course there were hints, like the success of gun controllers, dance mats, etc. Such hints have been there for the PS3 too - EyeToy and PS Eye games have been popular among casuals, but their application was too limited to make it to really mass-market figures (although it did very well in Europe regardless, and part of the limit for world-wide appeal was disinterested on the part of SCEA and SCEJ).
Then explain to me why the point of saturation for the Wii is at half the point of saturation of the PS1 or PS2?
I agree that this is unproven, but we will see. I already indicated that I didn't think we'd see a big change, but I remain pretty convinced that Kinect and Move have a big potential of denting the Wii sales. It's the first time the Wii gets true competition in this area. I already stated that the Wii has three important factors, in no particular order:
1. Motion controls
2. Nintendo games
3. Price
I think that Sony is in a good position now to challenge at least 1. Challenging 2 may also be possible, partly because I rate Sony's first party studios differently than you (although I share some of your criticism, I think games like Start the Party, Sports Champions, LBP, Modnation Racers, Singstar and Buzz have good potential to compete for at least part of Nintendo's audience), and if Nintendo maybe still has some appeal for the kids, families exist of adults too. Also, motion controls now being a mult-platform affair, it is easier for third party developers to develop titles that can compete on all platforms.
And while it doesn't prove anything, I have a few colleagues with a PS3 who were considering getting a Wii for their kids as well, but are now just going to get Move. It doesn't prove anything, but it doesn't disprove anything either. People say that peripherals don't sell if they're not included at launch, but there are a tonne of examples of that not being true, not the least of which is the dual analog controller itself. I remember very well when I bought that controller as a replacement/supplement to my grey old little joypad.
At the beginning of the Wii's lifecycle, there were plenty of people saying that it was a 'fad' that would pass. You're one of the very few though who still thinks motion controls are a fad at this point. You must, in all honestly, be pretty much blind to see why motion controls worked so well and how they were key in expanding the market, and that they are never going to go away ever again.
Sure. But against that are a lot of the same arguments - next year Nintendo will launch the 3DS, so it is highly unlikely that a Wii successor will launch before 2012. Do you think that the current 360 and PS3 base will then jump into that platform? This Wii will either have the same performance as the current HD consoles, in which it can hope for a few ports of the existing HD library, but in general will have a tough time competing with the vast library that these two consoles have already ammassed, or Nintendo will launch something 'next-gen', in which case it will take longer for third parties to develop titles for it, especially when they are completely uncertain what their market will be - it's a big gamble to assume that hardcore HD gamers will jump ship to Nintendo rather than wait the 1-2 years for next gen 360 and PS3.
The way I see it, hardcore and casual are currently fairly neatly split into two (although there is a fair bit of overlap in the middle, with certain sports game genres that should be classified as casual still being more popular on HD consoles, and some hardcore Nintendo titles drawing in non-casuals on the Nintendo front).
The key question may well be: is it easier for the HD consoles to open up to the casual crowd, or is it easier for the SD console to open up to the hardcore crowd? I think the HD consoles have the advantage in anything but price right now, but as soon as these consoles go under $300 (which the 360 is at already), this advantage will become less and less relevant.
Like I said though, the 360 will need to work hard at getting the software competitive enough and may run into trouble with controls that they can't offer an easy equivalent on versus the WiiMote, while for the PS3 the Move controller handily outperforms anything that the Wii can do (ok, speaker on the controller excepted), has a good pedigree of games and very quickly expanding library of games that support the Move, but still needs to get the PS3 + Move combo to go under $300.
But they don't need to do everything perfect to steal some of Wii's market. That they will steal some of the market is without question, imho. The real question of course is whether it will be a significant portion or not. And that's the one of two points that I do agree with you, that it is by no means a certainty that this will be a significant portion.
1. People don't want to get Move, because they can do all these games with the DS3.
I disagree completely. The success of the Wii is primarily because people do want to play games with a different controller. Nintendo made all these Nintendo titles for the GameCube as well. As for interest among existing PS3 owners, well ...
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=58085
2. Tacking on motion controls onto an existing genre doesn't work
Obviously tacking on motion controls to an existing genre doesn't necessarily work, no. But there are a fair few game types where the dualshock is the controller that has been 'tacked on', and it's been a long and hard process in some cases to make that workable. Basically, everything that was originally designed to do with the mouse that has moved to consoles is an example of 'dualshock controls tacked on' by your definition, and only work now because of a long period of refinement. Contrast that with a pointer like the wii - even the limited pointer of the Wii sans + was fairly successful for first person shooters. The main bottleneck here seemed more that noone wanted to trade HD console graphics and online functionlaity for Wii graphics and online functionality in this genre. But that's just fps - there have been games for all sorts of games (sports like golf, tennis, bowling, etc.) long before motion controls were around for which a motion controller just makes a tonne more sense and is much less of a 'tacked on' style experience than a 1:1 motion controller.
3. PS3 doesn't have the library of Motion Control games.
50+ games gaining support so far in the first 6 months isn't bad. If you take the best selling genres across the Wii platform, the PS3 has pretty decent alternatives these days for most of them. There are plenty of games among there that are Move specific, and of the genre that people bought the Wii for, so they wouldn't be buying it for just playing the same games either. And for the rest, see my answer to the two points above.
4. Kids will still be better off with the Wii, particularly on a secondary non SD tv
Probably, yes. They may be even better off with just a DS. But the age at which a PS3 is accessible to them and the range of games that are accessible to them goes down thanks to the Move controller. Super Rub-a-Dub was a great success with small children (3-6yo). Kids from friends in our street tended to walk past our window at some point asking their parents if they could play the Duck game again, or the Dancing game (I had the DDR mat out there for a while).
I don't think a RTS is going to be a killer app for Move, whatever happens!
Killer app probably not no. But the genre (including Civilisation c.s.) used to be very popular. It's a perfect example of a mouse control method that didn't translate well to dualshock, despite some valiant efforts recently.
Games and experience! The greatest draw for people to the Nintendo Wii are the games and the experience. The novelty of motion controls has started to wear out its welcome.
Yeah? The Wii expanded the market thanks to its motion controls, but now all grannies are playing Mario Galaxy? I think not. I'm even willing to bet that a lot of the non motion controller games that are popular on the Wii right now are popular because of their handheld heritage more than anything else.
Sony has neither the library or the ability to make games which appeal to Nintendos expanded market demographic. Sony developers tend to make games for themselves or the core market typically whereas Nintendo makes them for a wider audience. Nintendo has 37 of the top 50 selling games of all time which is something that noone can currently compete with. Theres no next gen Wii without Nintendo games, so whenever the Wii 2 gets released they will jump ship there.
Maybe. But don't forget that Playstation 1 and 2 sold more than double what the Wii sold so far. So maybe Nintendo's market demographic isn't as expanded as you think, or otherwise maybe Sony's platform has enough potential to have and get the games people want to play.
Kinect has the one advantage of not doubling up on capability which is already present in the standard controller. Everything Kinect does the controller does badly whereas Move is simply a new way to cut the same cake based upon the current library releasing in 2010. So not being good at something which the controller already does more than adequately isn't a significant black mark against the interface.
I'm sure that if you read that again, you'll see that you're not making sense anymore.
Being technically better as an interface is only a major draw if technical problems are limiting the enjoyment of the current Wii interface.
And they aren't?
Beyond that core games haven't been proved to really excel yet on motion controls if you take the Wii example in terms of what sells to that audience.
Because the Wii hardware lacks the capability to deliver on that front.
Also I have never seen augmented reality take off in terms of being a major driver of sales. Sony seems to think its appealing but I haven't seen any data to indicate that its giving the market what it wants.
The same held for Motion controls when the Wii came to market. Except of course there were hints, like the success of gun controllers, dance mats, etc. Such hints have been there for the PS3 too - EyeToy and PS Eye games have been popular among casuals, but their application was too limited to make it to really mass-market figures (although it did very well in Europe regardless, and part of the limit for world-wide appeal was disinterested on the part of SCEA and SCEJ).
If the Wiis sales are starting to decline then it could also indicate that the current market is past the point of saturation.
Then explain to me why the point of saturation for the Wii is at half the point of saturation of the PS1 or PS2?
I wouldn't state with any confidence that either Kinect or Move would dent the sales of the Wii in the short term as they simply don't reflect the same games/values of the target audience which the Wii possesses.
I agree that this is unproven, but we will see. I already indicated that I didn't think we'd see a big change, but I remain pretty convinced that Kinect and Move have a big potential of denting the Wii sales. It's the first time the Wii gets true competition in this area. I already stated that the Wii has three important factors, in no particular order:
1. Motion controls
2. Nintendo games
3. Price
I think that Sony is in a good position now to challenge at least 1. Challenging 2 may also be possible, partly because I rate Sony's first party studios differently than you (although I share some of your criticism, I think games like Start the Party, Sports Champions, LBP, Modnation Racers, Singstar and Buzz have good potential to compete for at least part of Nintendo's audience), and if Nintendo maybe still has some appeal for the kids, families exist of adults too. Also, motion controls now being a mult-platform affair, it is easier for third party developers to develop titles that can compete on all platforms.
And while it doesn't prove anything, I have a few colleagues with a PS3 who were considering getting a Wii for their kids as well, but are now just going to get Move. It doesn't prove anything, but it doesn't disprove anything either. People say that peripherals don't sell if they're not included at launch, but there are a tonne of examples of that not being true, not the least of which is the dual analog controller itself. I remember very well when I bought that controller as a replacement/supplement to my grey old little joypad.
If the Wii is starting to decline then its going to be a problem for any console trying to parrot them as they would be late entrants to a declining market.
At the beginning of the Wii's lifecycle, there were plenty of people saying that it was a 'fad' that would pass. You're one of the very few though who still thinks motion controls are a fad at this point. You must, in all honestly, be pretty much blind to see why motion controls worked so well and how they were key in expanding the market, and that they are never going to go away ever again.
Beyond that it also brings out the possibility that a Wii 2 is coming to the market in short order which is more problematic for Microsoft and Sony because it could just as easily threaten their core markets at the same time as they start introducing their own console owners to the concept of motion controls.
Sure. But against that are a lot of the same arguments - next year Nintendo will launch the 3DS, so it is highly unlikely that a Wii successor will launch before 2012. Do you think that the current 360 and PS3 base will then jump into that platform? This Wii will either have the same performance as the current HD consoles, in which it can hope for a few ports of the existing HD library, but in general will have a tough time competing with the vast library that these two consoles have already ammassed, or Nintendo will launch something 'next-gen', in which case it will take longer for third parties to develop titles for it, especially when they are completely uncertain what their market will be - it's a big gamble to assume that hardcore HD gamers will jump ship to Nintendo rather than wait the 1-2 years for next gen 360 and PS3.
The way I see it, hardcore and casual are currently fairly neatly split into two (although there is a fair bit of overlap in the middle, with certain sports game genres that should be classified as casual still being more popular on HD consoles, and some hardcore Nintendo titles drawing in non-casuals on the Nintendo front).
The key question may well be: is it easier for the HD consoles to open up to the casual crowd, or is it easier for the SD console to open up to the hardcore crowd? I think the HD consoles have the advantage in anything but price right now, but as soon as these consoles go under $300 (which the 360 is at already), this advantage will become less and less relevant.
Like I said though, the 360 will need to work hard at getting the software competitive enough and may run into trouble with controls that they can't offer an easy equivalent on versus the WiiMote, while for the PS3 the Move controller handily outperforms anything that the Wii can do (ok, speaker on the controller excepted), has a good pedigree of games and very quickly expanding library of games that support the Move, but still needs to get the PS3 + Move combo to go under $300.
But they don't need to do everything perfect to steal some of Wii's market. That they will steal some of the market is without question, imho. The real question of course is whether it will be a significant portion or not. And that's the one of two points that I do agree with you, that it is by no means a certainty that this will be a significant portion.