From another discussion thread:
Knowing the prices of all three now, I'm really curious as to how things will unfold. I think all three motion controls will co-exist easily. It's very clear (to me anyway) that on the PS3 the Move will have an opportunity to get a better installbase among existing PS3 owners:
- the cost of entry is low enough (basically the price of a game or less)
- with ample support in games that people will already have (the Hustle Kings, Velocity Bowling, EyePets and Heavy Rains of this world)
- or would be getting anyway (the LBP2s, Killzone 3s and Socom 4s of this world).
- there is also a definite group of PS3 owners that have been considering or would be considering getting a Wii for the children that can now opt to get Move controllers instead (I personally know a few of these here at work).
Then there are new more hardcore gaming experiences that will have PC games do better on the PS3 than before - people like the Gamers with Jobs cast who want to play RUSE but refuse to support Ubisoft's always online DRM, and could opt to play the PS3 version with Move instead (I listened to their podcast this morning - they don't know yet that RUSE supports Move, so I'll be interested to hear their opinions once they find out.
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Microsoft however seems to be aiming its arrows more clearly at winning new customers and existing Wii owners. For this, it was important to get a bundle out that was under the $300 mark. In that respect, they succeeded.
In the process, I think they'll still have a pretty big acceptance rate among their existing install-base, because
- people who are currently 360 only will prefer to get Kinect and a few games rather than invest in a new system altogether. It is both cheaper and more convenient.
- Kinect fills a huge void in the 360's game library that Microsoft so far has been very unsuccessful at filling.
It will be interesting to see where this goes. I think that the PS3 has potential in winning over some current 360 owners, particularly if Move proves to be a cool new way to do FPS games, RTS games, and other type of games where the mouse has been good or better than analog sticks. Overall though, Motion controls may not end up mattering that much for the battle of the HD consoles.
The Wii market though is another question. The Wii market is at a point in which a next generation would have been acceptable to many. The PS3 and 360, when enhanced with motion controls, are definitely capable of acting as the next-gen for Wii owners.
All that the Wii has to rely on now is its current set of games, and its price. In terms of price, it is still in a strong position. Sure, the PS3 is great value for 399 in that it basically has anything you'd ever want in there by default, but it's still twice of the level of entry for the Wii. That's going to be a barrier, and Sony will have to work hard on getting the price of their PS3 Move bundle down to sub 300 (whether euro or dollar) levels. The 360 is in a better position here, obviously. Again, yes, for the difference with the PS3 you get a harddrive, a bluray player, and free online play, which seems well worth it, but each consumer has its own price barrier and there will be a significantly larger portion of buyers at 300 than at 400.
As for the games, Microsoft is in a more difficult position. For a number of key game genres, the 360's Kinect offerings are a step up. These are important genres, like Fitness and Dance. For everything else that uses motion control though, Kinect has issues or is downright less suitable. The PS3 on the other hand is either equal or a clear step up from the Wii for basically all genres that cover the Wii, whether it is augmented reality in Party games, 1 to 1 control in Wii Motion+ type games, pointer functionality, the PS3 is clearly better, and in all other areas (all Wii non-Motion+ games) at the very least equal. The PS3 also has a pretty decent library of games that can appeal to casuals, and has the advantage of having free online as well as HD graphics etc. The PS3 will also benefit from games being able to target both Wii and PS3 in terms of controls.
However, the Wii still has great games, and certainly in the casual and family space they are still pretty comfortable with brands that are well engrained in the target audience through both their handheld and their home console.
In the end, I don't know if we'll see a lot of movement, but I do expect a lot more pressure on the Wii regardless. However, it will be interesting to see whether that pressure will be visible already this year, or whether it will take longer to become visible. For Nintendo right now it matters little - they have the 3DS coming, and even if Wii stopped selling altogether they would be fine. Their biggest challenge in that respect is coming up with a good successor to the Wii that can hold off the PS3/360.
