The camera has such a higher resolution and the Orb is so much bigger than the small lights in the sensor bar, and the image recognition software can even know the exact size of the Orb, so should basically be able to exactly tell how far the ball is from the camera as well as be able to determine its position really accurately thanks to it being so easy to find the exact center spot of the circle (combined with everything else of course).
The two lights of Wii are actually a more accurate solution (when visible), if only the camera wasn't such low quality. They provide a wider point of reference, equivalent to a Move orb of the diameter of the sensor distance (about 16cm between IR sources by my measuring). Given a 640x480 camera, they would give a more accurate distance reading than the sphere. That doesn't solve all the over shortcomings of Wii's design but at least in that respect the advantage can't be given to Move!
If you want a time reference, look at the 2:15ish mark, when he first hits the dummy.
In that demo the sword is held in place, and is only responding to the Wiimote's
rotation. You don't know if he twisted the Wiimote around towards himself, but given how the on-screen interaction through the rest of the video works, there's no reason to think it lost it completely there.
The Wiimotes sensing of the distance and position of the IR absolutely requires it to be pointing at the sensors at all times, which means you are extremely limited in what you can and cannot do. The two technologies are not the same in principal. You cannot have completely accurate 1:1 movement at all angles to match everything, including distance, unless it is pointed directly at the screen.
If you are taking 1:1 to mean a perfect match, then no system provides that. Move doesn't. It's a lot of approximations and on-the-fly calibrations, with a margin of error. Wii's margin of error is larger, but it's the same technology in principal, only Sony have executed it more effectively but shifting the optical tracking to the base unit.
Taking your drift explained above, Move's sphere wouldn't come into play at all. The sphere is for positioning, not rotational information. That comes from the gyros. If you have a Move demo where the sword is rotating about its hilt and not being translated, it's the same technology, three gyros, telling the consoles which way the controller is pointing. In fact, Wii has the added information of visual orientation information. If you point Move at the screen and twist it, only the gyro's tell the PS3 its orientation. On Wii you get the gyro info and the triangulation info of the two IR spots which can be used to determine rotation about at least two axis.
Again, Wii M+ only helps with orientation, not travel distance (position). All of those demo's likely use accelerometers to move the sword on screen to it's stopping point, but it's only saying "moving in X direction at Y speed" and calculates the time to move it to the stopping point.
That's true.
That's not 1:1. It's guesstimation, if anything.
1:1 doesn't mean an exact sampling, but non-gesture based tracking. There are margins for error. The lower the margin of error, the better, but as long as the margin for error doesn't destroy the intentions of the gamer, it counts as one ot one. Putting it another way, if Move wasn't being released and we didn't have tech demos, you'd look at this Motion+ demo and be calling it the 1:1 gaming we wanted from Wii in the first place. 1:1 means when we swing the sword right to left, slightly downwards, slightly upwards, it performs those subtly different moves instead of always doing the canned right-to-left sword move.
Unless the remote has a constant point of reference (the IR bar) then it cannot know it's position, only it's orientation. The technology is limited, and I don't consider that vague similarity to Move to be "the same in principal". Not even close.
The difference is the same between a front-engined car and a rear-engined car. The handling is different, but the mechanics are the same. Gyroscopic orientation info; accelerometer movement info; and visual distance and placement info. The only real difference is Wii has a small window of visual calibration whereas Move's is huge, and Wii has additional visual triangulation when pointing at the screen where Move doesn't.