I'm not saying GT5 has less transparency than Forza 3, I'm saying they both have very little of it. I've only played the Forza demo though.
You said that both are predictable over-draw and that unlike PS3, Xbox360 won't be over-draw limited which is the same as saying Forza 3 has more over-draw.
I'm saying the opposite. GT5 Prologue has a lot more over-draw than Forza 3. In fact, you can fill the screen with clouds of smoke and dust at any time and also windows have great clarity. You can even see the interior rendered with lighting and shadow of rearwards cars in the rear view mirror. It is quite amazing.
Forza 3 you cannot see these things. That is why I am saying exactly opposite of your original comment. You say they have predictable over-draw (low in GT5, high in 360), I am saying they have opposite .... "unpredictable" overdraw (high in GT5, low in 360).
No, we had to draw 30k+ of them at 60fps. But I know enough about drawing spectators to know that it's total cake to do.
I am quite sure that if Forza 3 could have more spectators it would. Instead they cut back spectator count from Forza 2. A detail reduction. Maybe for your game it is easy because of slow and also predictable LOD transitions but for fast moving racing games where camera is 100% player control I am sure this is very different.
Well I figure they must have targeted 16 cars at some point since it's not like it was a secret that GT was gonna have it. But they ended up with 8. So what would 8 extra cars have added? It's not pixel load. The cars are mostly opaque, so while they add pixel load, they also remove pixel load of whatever is behind them. The do add vertex load. However the game already tiles with 2xmsaa, which means it's already capable of handling a potentially very high vert load. .
I would not make that conclusion my friend.
1) What is behind the cars is the road (mostly). Road has much less pixel load than the car, especially if there is transparent surfaces for windows, lights, etc.... More cars means less road which means net pixel load is much more.
2) Since Forza 3 has 2xMSAA then it has 2 tiles. For reasons you explained earlier (cars straddling tiles) once you have tiling, polygon increase becomes very expensive. When you have more cars and cars are always moving around on the screen, the chance of too many cars being in both tiles is a very high risk. If those cars also have too many polygons then it is a very big danger to performance.
If it was just a vertex issue, then why not just switch to variable msaa, like perhaps dropping msaa/tiling when many high lod cars are close by?
Variable MSAA for this game means high chance of no AA because with 16 cars, often there will be many cars nearby, especially if you have slow cars that move like herds. 720P with 2xMSAA is "ok" but 720P with no AA is bad for a racing game.
And as you said other games like NFS already draw 16 cars
NFS is 30fps. 2 x CPU & GPU cycles to process everything. Easy.
So what about cpu? Forza is more sim, so presumably it's physics are more involved than Grid or NFS. Plus they run their simulation at a high rate, 360fps was it? On top of that presumably the AI and collision cpu load would be increased with 8 more cars. So I figure maybe it was a cpu thing. Just a guess though.
Given all the cutbacks to visuals (trackside objects, over-draw), performance is more likely GPU limited.
As for NFS, it has, possibly, a better physics engine than Forza 3. It uses an improved sim physics model from PC company Simbin. The calculation rate is meaningless if you have bad algorithms, no? Forza 1 and 2 had high calculation rate and had bad physics. Forza 3, I hear, has many good improvements so I am eager to drive it well and see.