The Final Fantasy XIII XB360 announcement discussion* (spawned)

[betan]

I'm curious anybody here thinks if GTA4 were to be an exclusive to a single console, it would have driven noticeable more hardware on that platform than it did on both platforms total.

Anyhow, it will be interesting to see DVD vs BD case after those comments from the producer/directors of the game.

 

[obonicus]

I'm curious anybody here thinks if GTA4 were to be an exclusive to a single console, it would have driven noticeable more hardware on that platform than it did on both platforms total.

We probably would have seen MGS4, but on a bigger scale. So... maybe a huge bump, but nothing long-lasting?

But it's a big if; if it had been console X-exclusive, would people have bought console X beforehand in anticipation, or are you considering sales numbers being identical to what they were up to GTA4 launch?

 

[Mintmaster]

If they are that hardcore of Final Fantasy fans, wont they STILL buy the PS3 for Versus - which is still an exclusive?

My point is that they aren't all hardcore.

Not to mention that of the 5-8 million you mention, 3-4 are in Japan where Final Fantasy XIII will be a Playstation exclusive. It is only being ported in the US and EU markets...

According to Shifty, 2.5-3M are in Japan. That doesn't really matter anyway, because 360 in Japan is a lost cause. It's the 5M fans elsewhere that MS is trying to woo with the advantages of 360 vs. PS3. Well, at least some of them.

Once again, I think this is being a little overly melodramatic. The FF fans that have not bought any console yet will probably still buy a PS3.

Even if 80% buy a PS3, that's better than 100%. It could be a million more 360 users and million fewer PS3 users.

I just don't see it as being the killing blow to a console that everyone thinks it is.

As you may have noticed from my posts, neither do I. It just marginalizes the possibility of 360 peaking and fading away due to Sony having all the good games in the next few years.

GTA and FF accounted for 5 of Sony's top 8 titles on PS2 (GT3, GT4, and MGS2 were the others). If you wanted to play the most popular games last gen, you needed a PS2, but that just isn't the case anymore with PS3.

You want Office, you have to just Windows or LOL the Mac. And should Apple gain enough market share to threat Windows, MS will no doubt pull Office for Mac.

I don't think they could due to worries about antitrust lawsuits. In any case, Sony didn't even give MS that much. MS's biggest piece of software is available on Mac, but none of the PS2's biggest games last gen made it to XBox.

 

[obonicus]

My point is that they aren't all hardcore.

According to Shifty, 2.5-3M are in Japan. That doesn't really matter anyway, because 360 in Japan is a lost cause. It's the 5M fans elsewhere that MS is trying to woo with the advantages of 360 vs. PS3. Well, at least some of them.

That's an interesting shift, though. So far MS had been trying awfully hard to woo Japan. Could it be a shift in their strategy, or was it more that launching FFXIII day-and-date in Japan was completely off the table?

I don't think they could due to worries about antitrust lawsuits. In any case, Sony didn't even give MS that much. The biggest piece of software is available on Mac, but none of the biggest games last gen made it to XBox except Halo.

Just a nitpick that improves the analogy slightly, but doesn't really undermine your point (office-suite software aren't games: if Office for Mac 200x is late by a few months people will have no problem using Office for Mac 200x-1), but the Xbox got GTA. Late, but it did.

The only thing I can add is that Sony's dominance apparently wasn't bad for games last-gen; we got new genres like GTA3, completely oddball titles like Katamari and everything in between. This generation has been fairly insipid in comparison, though if anything that's Sony's fault for joining MS in pushing games into massive budgets.

 

[expletive]

FFXIII was a big announcement by MS today, but IMO not their biggest. The dashboard re-design, introduction of avatars and expanded community features, Netflix tie-ins, and strong social gaming push all I think will ultimately be bigger drivers.

Agree totally Carl that the announcements you list will have a far more penetrating and universal appeal than the FF XIII announcement. That said, you must admit that FF XIII was more symbolic than anything tangible, and its the kind of announcement that has an aftershock that nudges perception of the gaming hardcore and mainstream.

After watching the conference video for the first time, i'm left thinking that MS may be able to pull off the perfect balance between the mainstream Wii and the hardcore PS3. The interface and Live party community stuff is really quite impressive, live blogs dont quite do it justice. There was so much to absorb at this press conference, something like portal expansion (portal 2) exclusivity gets lost in the shuffle!

 

[obonicus]

After watching the conference video for the first time, i'm left thinking that MS may be able to pull off the perfect balance between the mainstream Wii and the hardcore PS3. The interface and Live party community stuff is really quite impressive, live blogs dont quite do it justice. There was so much to absorb at this press conference, something like portal expansion (portal 2) exclusivity gets lost in the shuffle!

(emphasis mine)

They still need to reach the Wii audience. What have they done that is so heavily mainstream, though? Avatars? Lips? Scene-It? The last two have direct competition from Sony, and not much from Nintendo itself.

 

[Carl B]

That said, you must admit that FF XIII was more symbolic than anything tangible, and its the kind of announcement that has an aftershock that nudges perception of the gaming hardcore and mainstream.

I do agree with you. I think though that even after running through its course on Gamespot, IGN, Engadget, and all the various other news mills in the coming days... it still won't be nearly as bad a situation press-wise as if this had happened last year at E3.

 

[obonicus]

I do agree with you. I think though that even after running through its course on Gamespot, IGN, Engadget, and all the various other news mills in the coming days... it still won't be nearly as bad a situation press-wise as if this had happened last year at E3.

It's big news still, but the collective conscious of gaming has shifted a little bit aways from the former context of 2007, and 2006 before that.

It'll be interesting to see how this changes things. If you go to Neogaf or other similar fan-heavy sites you see people furious at Sony or at Square-Enix, absolutely livid at the 'betrayal/incompetence'. For gamers, this is HUGE news, possibly the biggest of E3 (though tomorrow's a really big day, so you never know). Will it make a blip in sales? I'm betting not.

 

[Mintmaster]

That's an interesting shift, though. So far MS had been trying awfully hard to woo Japan. Could it be a shift in their strategy, or was it more that launching FFXIII day-and-date in Japan was completely off the table?

I think they made an announcement a few months ago that they'd reduce the marketing resources going into Japan and they'd focus on Europe. AFAIK they did better than with the first XBox, so maybe next gen they'll do better. Right now, though, it's a lost cause.

The only thing I can add is that Sony's dominance apparently wasn't bad for games last-gen; we got new genres like GTA3, completely oddball titles like Katamari and everything in between. This generation has been fairly insipid in comparison, though if anything that's Sony's fault for joining MS in pushing games into massive budgets.

True, but you can't create new genres forever, particularly those with mass appeal. LBP is sort of a new genre.

It could also be argued that MS's monopoly with Windows wasn't bad for software, either. Sure, there were some buggy products from MS and other ISVs, but I can imagine software quality being much poorer in a market with 3 different operating systems with decent userbase.

 

[expletive]

(emphasis mine)

They still need to reach the Wii audience. What have they done that is so heavily mainstream, though? Avatars? Lips? Scene-It? The last two have direct competition from Sony, and not much from Nintendo itself.

To be honest i cant quite put my finger on it but yeah i think its all of those things, plus the box is small and white like the wii (toy) , instead of large and black like the ps3 (complex consumer electronics) .

I find myself thinking in terms of my wife or the parents/in-laws being able to walk up to a device and use it, to understand how it works intuitively.

The Wii couldnt be easier, big boxes with obvious pictures and labels that you point at.

The PS3 starts off with the elaborate orchestral score and has a grid of icons on black that really leaves her not knowing where to go or what to do with the controller. Its imposing and not something i think people feel they have "control" over.

Now the 360 might actually be right in the middle of the two. It doesnt have the pointer interface but i think the design is much more obvious and accessible than the ps3 for regular people.

 

[obonicus]

To be honest i cant quite put my finger on it but yeah i think its all of those things, plus the box is small and white like the wii (toy) , instead of large and black like the ps3 (complex consumer electronics) .

Well, just to nitpick, they're not that different in size (mass is a different matter), at least not compared to the Wii. I'm not sure if white means 'easy', either, but that's a matter of opinion and not really worth arguing over. The PS3 is is targeted as high-end CE, so otherwise, yeah, you have a point.

Now the 360 might actually be right in the middle of the two. It doesnt have the pointer interface but i think the design is much more obvious and accessible than the ps3 for regular people.

I'm skeptical, honestly. Not just because I don't know if this is the right sort of 'friendly', but because I don't know if the 'regular' folks will even notice the 360. Popular knowledge says that people who want a Wii don't want a Wii-alike. But again, popular knowledge is often wrong.

 

[obonicus]

I think they made an announcement a few months ago that they'd reduce the marketing resources going into Japan and they'd focus on Europe. AFAIK they did better than with the first XBox, so maybe next gen they'll do better. Right now, though, it's a lost cause.

But didn't they just acquire a bunch of exclusive and timed-exclusive Square-Enix RPGs? They're partially targeting the US market, yes, where they might very well be million-sellers (was LO a million seller?), but I figured that securing RPGs was at least partly because of Japan.

 

[eastmen]

Look the 360 isn't going to get the crowd the wii has to go out and buy it. However when they play with thier family or friends who have it they may be interested and decide to buy it .

Whatever the case the games they are putting out seem to be fun and will sell to the core gamer they have , it may not be wii fit numbers but they will sell.

I don't see the need for ms to go after the wii crowd anyway. They have a crowd that is buying a ton of software at an amazing rate , they just need to lower the console price to get more people to jump in. The console is only $20 bucks cheaper than it was in 2005 and in some ways its $50 bucks more than it was in $2005 .

They really need to move that price down. If they want wii buyers they need to be as low as the wii , the arcade should come with a 64meg memory card and priced at under $250 (mabye $230 ) The pro should already be at $300 (and no the phase out of the 20 gig doesn't count ) and the elite should be under $400 or if they want to charge a $100 premium beef up the hadrive or include wifi .

Once they start adressing these problems they can worry about the casuals

 

[Carl B]

It'll be interesting to see how this changes things. If you go to Neogaf or other similar fan-heavy sites you see people furious at Sony or at Square-Enix, absolutely livid at the 'betrayal/incompetence'. For gamers, this is HUGE news, possibly the biggest of E3 (though tomorrow's a really big day, so you never know). Will it make a blip in sales? I'm betting not.

I'd replace the word 'gamers' with 'fanboys,' at least insofar as the feelings of fury, betrayal, and incompetence go among these folk.

 

[Dominik D]

Back to the game discussion though. Can someone tell me what was the average length of the first playthrough for previous FF games? I only played 7-9 a little bit. If the size of SE games is fairly constant, it may be easier to guesstimate time necessary to translate the game.

Oh, and one more question. Does anyone know how does having shares in a Japanese company work? Did Sony as a major shareholder know about SE's deal?

 

[Carl B]

Back to the game discussion though. Can someone tell me what was the average length of the first playthrough for previous FF games? I only played 7-9 a little bit. If the size of SE games is fairly constant, it may be easier to guesstimate time necessary to translate the game.

You can guesstimate based on how long it took them to bring FFXII over - that took 7 months. Dragon Warrior VIII took them one year.

Oh, and one more question. Does anyone know how does having shares in a Japanese company work? Did Sony as a major shareholder know about SE's deal?

Sony would have known period; this was no surprise to them, of that you can be assured.

 

[obonicus]

All this next-gen console speculation has been covered quite thoroughly in (surprise!) the next-gen console technology speculation thread.

Mod:
Nods in total agreement and hits the ever schweet delete button...

 

[-tkf-]

At least we know that the game is linear in the story line or there will be some crazy swapping going on.

 

[Nick Laslett]

I felt that this announcement was quite a coup for MS, and they handled it perfectly in their conference.

But the devil is in the detail, SE are the real winners here, especially if they've got money in advance from MS to secure the multi-platform release.

Sony still get the game exclusive in Japan and much sooner. The US/EU release is an age away, too long for MS to have even bothered to make this announcement now. I can see why Sony might not have been that bothered with countering this move.

The desperately need FFXIII in Japan asap. Althought FFXIII is important to the US market, the release is so far out. I don't think FFXIII is nearly as significant in Europe.

MS have basically paid a lot to protect the market where they are strongest. Where they really that concerned that FFXIII would have such an impact in the US market for the PS3 to threaten the 360's dominant position?

How does FFXIII Versus fit into all this? We should not under estimate the impact this will have if it remains exclusive to the PS3.

SE have played their cards well, expecially if they can get MS to pay for FFXIII Versus aswell.

I still think the loss of DQ9 to the DS is a bigger blow to the PS3, than this announcement.

They will still sell 2 million copies of this game in Japan alone, that really matters more to Sony right now.

 

[eastmen]

How does FFXIII Versus fit into all this? We should not under estimate the impact this will have if it remains exclusive to the PS3.

if its using the same engine and assets then its most likely going to come out on the 360 now.