Kojima Jumps In: MGS4 Coming to the Xbox 360

[tha_con]

Its applicable to general financing theory, like anything else. Unless 4 million was significantly above expectations, stock price would not rise upon the reporting of 4 million shipped\sold whatever.

Its irrelevant what actually happend, your "1 million sold - stock price goes up" in post 155 is plain and simply wrong. You cannot determine if news of 1 million sold would make stock price go up or down, unless you know market expectations.

I was using "1 million sold" as a throw away number, not an actual figure representative of the market. It was used to get a point across, that the stock market is more interested in the amount of copies that were sold to retailers.

MGS3 sold something around 4 million in it's lifetime with a userbase of 100+ million.

MGS4 sold 4 million within a few months with what, 20 Mil userbase?

I think it out paced market expectations at a time when very few PS3 titles even came close to breaking 1 million sold to consumers.

Edit: Also, didn't Konami report something like a 90% increase in their profit when MGS4 released? Something like a 100 million dollar increase in profit? Their financial report also detailed MGS4 shipping 4 million copies between June and September, which is more than MGS3 did in it's lifetime over a few years with a significantly larger install base.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

I was using "1 million sold" as a throw away number, not an actual figure representative of the market. It was used to get a point across, that the stock market is more interested in the amount of copies that were sold to retailers. .

I understand that. I just pointed out that the logic in your example was plain and simply wrong, stock price doesn't go up on sales alone, and stock price does indeed drop if the game would have been returned in higher than expected numbers from retail.

 

[tha_con]

I understand that. I just pointed out that what you said was plain and simply wrong.

I don't think it's wrong. The game shipped a lot of copies, Konami made money, and I'm positive their stock value went up when MGS4 released.

Unless there was another big heavy hitter from Konami I'm forgetting?

 

[Cheezdoodles]

I don't think it's wrong. The game shipped a lot of copies, Konami made money, and I'm positive their stock value went up when MGS4 released.

Did you not read what i posted earlier?

Unless it sells ABOVE EXPECTATION stock price does not go up. Market allready price in future expected returns in current stock price.

It doesnt matter if Konami made money or not, again, just like i posted earlier: companies can annouce record profits, and still drop in stock price if profits where below expectations.

Ive studied finance now for allmost 4 years at a very respectable university, you sure you want to go into this argument?

(Note: they where well could have gone up in stock price when MGS4 is released, thats not the point, point is that the logic in your example was wrong and contradicts all financial theories.

Note2: Konami stock actually fell on the day of MGS4 release, slightly rised the 13th and made significant bump the 16th. Peaked slightly higher the 19th and from there on it has gone downwards ever since - much ofcourse due to completely different factors than MGS4)

I can carefully explain this to you if you want, but lets take it to PM instead of deraling this thread any longer.

 

[PalmiNio]

I was using "1 million sold" as a throw away number, not an actual figure representative of the market. It was used to get a point across, that the stock market is more interested in the amount of copies that were sold to retailers.

MGS3 sold something around 4 million in it's lifetime with a userbase of 100+ million.

MGS4 sold 4 million within a few months with what, 20 Mil userbase?

I think it out paced market expectations at a time when very few PS3 titles even came close to breaking 1 million sold to consumers.

Edit: Also, didn't Konami report something like a 90% increase in their profit when MGS4 released? Something like a 100 million dollar increase in profit? Their financial report also detailed MGS4 shipping 4 million copies between June and September, which is more than MGS3 did in it's lifetime over a few years with a significantly larger install base.

Well increase in profit is mostly due to the fact that prior to MGS4 release their release window was shitty as hell. And an increase in profit does not explain how much they have spent on all the years developing the game.

The big diffrences with MGS3 is that MGS3 was the second game for that plattform in a late stage. The development cost wouldn't even be near the one that MGS4 created.

There is now way a project like MGS4 can be self financed by sales, they are to big. Exklusive games allways get some sort of support from the plattform owner. If MGS4 goes multi it is due to the fact that Sony could not support the total cost that would bind it exklusivly. I would love to se for example how much money that has been consumed by Killzone 2.

 

[eastmen]

Every million copies they sell on the xbox 360 is another 10-30m they make on mgs4 which has already had the bulk of its cost accounted for .

If they created expanded content for it to lure in 360 gamers since it will be most likely a year after it came out on the ps3 they can then later sell that content to ps3 owners also.

 

[midorigreenwood]

Why couldn't they do a portable ops level game on the Wii?

if they were worried that they would have to work hard to convince a audience on the console to buy the game they could make the game for the PSP and the Wii to reduce risk.

That is basically what Capcom is going to do with Monster Hunter 3........the Wii as the lead console and probably ported to the PSP after 6 or so months.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Why should Konami care about their stock price?? They care about the money in their pockets which is the profit they make on games.

Stock prices concenrs shareholders, not the company itself. Once they're public, they won't get any money from the stock market. It has nothing to do with the company's profits, the relationship goes the other way.

 

[RobertR1]

Companies can offer up more stock for purchase to raise liquidity. A healthy market perspective also allows for better borrowing rates and the outside funding for other projects and so on. A healthy stock is good all around.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

But their primary concern by far is income from software sales! How can we get into a debate like this??

 

[obonicus]

But their primary concern by far is income from software sales! How can we get into a debate like this??

But clearly if Konami wants to attract vent-- oh, I give up.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Like venture capital's going to look for high risk opportunities... Is there any venture capital left in the economy, anyway?

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Why should Konami care about their stock price?? They care about the money in their pockets which is the profit they make on games.

Stock prices concenrs shareholders, not the company itself. Once they're public, they won't get any money from the stock market. It has nothing to do with the company's profits, the relationship goes the other way.

Um. While Konami as a firm doesn't really care about it stock price on a daily basis (thought they can get founding from the stock marked if needed), Konami management is controlled by the stockholders.

Management is at the mercy of the stockholders, and stockholders want return on investment, therefore stock price definately matters to a company as if stock goes the wrong way, management is likely to get fired.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

The point is this:

if 
   MGS4 does not sell a lot
then
   Konami won't feel happy even if the stock goes up

 

[DrJay24]

So it's an iTouch/iPhone game due in spring. *yawn*

 

[psorcerer]

I think the thread name has a grammar mistake: "MGS4 is not Coming to the Xbox 360".

 

[Neb]

I think the thread name has a grammar mistake: "MGS4 is not Coming to the Xbox 360".

To soon my friend, to soon. The essay time is not over yet.

 

[psorcerer]

To soon my friend, to soon. The essay time is not over yet.

MGS5 may come to X360, but not MGS4.