I think if Nintendo is going to wow with anything, then it would have to be 3rd party publishers who have reallocated significant resources to Wii development for this year. Development cycles could be short enough so that the first real results could turn up at E3. Though probably Nintendo themselves should have one or two surprises as well. Just think about their previous E3 presentation. They're going to want to do something similar, seeing how it was a big success. There were a fair number of things shown there that we haven't heard from since, I believe, and E3 is as good a time as any for something to show.
Also, forget TGS for a moment. Sony doesn't have to choose this time. E3 will show everything, and at TGS the 'general public' can play everything. Even Japanese publishers are now having a bit of a Western rediscovery, so will be as keen as Sony to show off at E3. I also don't think they feel E3 needs to compete with their own Gamer's Day events, especially considering how generously they showed off at their last one.
I'm still of the opinion though that Sony has the best potential for having a big show. There are eyetoy things to be shown, we'll get to see the final SingStar with its myspace functionality and who knows some big stars can come on-stage to show it off. Of course there's a whole host of big games too.
Here's why I think Sony will have a big show. There's just a lot of stuff to show and talk about.
Playstation 3
Ratchet & Clank - Insomniac indicated that they haven't had as fluent a development and production cycle for a game in many years, largely because they did the ground-work while making Resistance. So I expect a lot to be showable and playable.
Heavenly Sword - apparently 1/3rd of the game was offered playable to EGM recently, and we've gotten a few glimpses of how hot that can look.
Little Big Planet - obviously. We'll see more levels and some more of the editor.
Lair - got its final release date for August, what, 18th? So is pretty much done.
Uncharted - polish will move on at a very steady pace, I'm sure
Killzone 2 - considering how long they've been at it, the game should be quite far ahead now. And regardless of whether it will be good or not, I'm sure they will have tried to get a few technical feats in there that will be interesting to see.
Gran Turismo - Could be further ahead than we think too; remember that we saw a movie of the La Sarthe track at Le Mans. I think they will show off some full on-board camera action, at the very least (there was a special Ferrari event teaser).
Time Crisis 4 - I'm not sure it will debut here, but I think it will. The star this time won't be the game, but the new GunCon 3. I very strongly wish that they make this gun available to Epic/UE3 as I can't imagine anything that I'd rather play an FPS with, but I guess that'd be too much to ask at this stage. Still, it would be absolutely awesome - two analog sticks that you can operate comfortably while holding a gun that works similar (but probably more precise - they'll want to be as close as they can to the excellent precision of the GunCon2) as the wii-mote pointer functionality. Time Crisis is still one of my favorite shooters, and I can't wait to be able to play it on a post 60hz CRT TV
Epic / UE3 / Unreal Tournament 3 - we'll see a very polished and nearly finished Unreal Tournament 3. I've read some small comments on it, that indicated it looked at least as good as GoW. Perhaps we'll also get the first glimpses of other UE3 games, though that may be to early - I think they're just barely nearing completion of the third party package for UE3 (consider the delay of Fatal Inertia).
EyeToy - Obviously we'll see the pretty much finished version of Eye of Judgment, but what of those other 4-5?
And what about third parties? Are they ready to use it already?
Playstation Home - Another big thing that is coming along nicely. Maybe not that much new is to be said about it, but I'm sure it will be there and maybe we'll get to see some more examples or hear more specific details about how the first games and third party publishers, who I think are itching to get at it, are going to support it. Perhaps we'll hear that the first SDKs are going to be rolled out. Would probably be a good idea at this point in time, if you want games to support it come this Christmas.
Firmware 2.0 - as good a time as any to announce it, with in-game calling up of the XMB. Maybe they won't be able to release it day one as all games will need to work with it, and some may need a patch. But probably it shouldn't be too hard, and I think we'll get it soon enough. In any case, we'll probably hear about new features. Also, I expect they may give more details on how Home improvements will be reflected in the new firmware as well.
Havok - the new optimised for Cell version had some pretty awesome performance figures when announced a few months ago. Probably they were able to squeeze some more out of it since, but more interesting should be which games are going to support it. I'm willing to bet that we'll get stuff like more impressive explosions and additional physics in PS3 versions of multi-platform games as a result.
Wipeout HD - I'm sure we'll see something of this here, and it should be an absolutely fantastic online game.
Tekken 6 - probably playable. More importantly, we'll have Tekken 5 Online.
Soul Calibur 4 - will probably at least be present in some form.
Motion Control - I definitely expect some more stuff in this area. The much maligned sixaxis is more than capable of a lot of nice motion control stuff, and the SDK having been out there for a full year now, I think we'll get some more stuff that is intended for it specifically. There's a bowling game that's been in development for a long time already (pre-E3 2006) and should be about finished. An obvious possibility is a Mercury which uses realistic looking materials which could be interesting, but there's plenty more that I expect to become available through PSN.
Controller Redesign - I mention it, but I actually expect it should be too early for this. Maybe they will say something about it, maybe not. I think probably better not at this time.
Metal Gear Solid 4 - duh. We'll get more info and I presume we'll see something being played this time. Who knows a demo is coming up soon (I wouldn't be surprised if it comes with a vibration peripheral
). I expect it will use the sixaxis wherever it can, as these guys are creative enough to find a use for anything you throw at them (witness the GPS features of MGS PO on PSP).
God of War PS3 - maybe some first teasers?
Indiana Jones - some more Euphoria stuff, but this time we'll get a better impression of the actual game. Probably there will be some other games announced too.
Of course there will be plenty third party multi-platform games.
Playstation Portable
A redesign? Who knows. I wouldn't want to speculate too much on it. I could still see them do a touch screen or a keyboard. Or if they are serious about the GPS and EyeToy stuff, maybe have that included? I really wouldn't know what to make of it, but if they are serious about also including/supporting phone capabilities, this could be it.
EyeToy - lots of stuff left open on this one. Is it going to be supported by first and third parties seriously, or not?
GPS - exact same story. And are we going to get navigation software for it? Or does it tank?
PSP Store - Will be interesting to see if the PSP gets its own store now. At least I expect some kind of announcement.
PSX games on PSP - obviously we'll get some more of those.
PSN Games for PSP - The store could also lead to downloadable games a la PSN games for PS3.
God of War - obviously.
Final Fantasy VII - Maybe a good time for a playable demo?
PSP to PS3 connectivity - Definitely an area with as yet unfulfilled potential.
Playstation 2
We'll probably be surprised by how many games are still coming ... (apparently even on this board here there is someone right now developing an EyeToy game for it.
).
Motion Control - there are rumors of wii-mote like devices, as well as announced and even released third party devices that give motion control to existing and new PS2 games. This can definitely breathe some new life into the PS2 and it will be interesting to see if there are third party devs who are going to do something with motion control on the PS2.
The big question is, will they do it the same as last year, or will they make a bigger 'show' of it, like Nintendo did last year?
(I'm bummed, because I have holiday this week, but next week could be a very busy week at work. Maybe I'll try to work ahead a little in the coming days)
