The challenges, rewards, and realities of a two tier console launch

[iroboto]

But... hardly anyone has them, and they’re nowhere near final, because MS wants to surprise Sony this time.

Is the verge a reliable source?

Theoretically based on the context this would be true then. If we make the assumption that Phil is the first to receive them hardly anyone else should have it.

I think we were joking about Lockhart 2 days ago; here we are with multiple sources converging on it. Sam Brads has a video on this the other day as well.

his sources are decent it would appear.

 

[anexanhume]

Consider that Lockhart is diskless, that wouldn't make any sense...

For streaming. Lockhart doesn’t need to exist if XB1S could stream everything over xCloud. MS aspires to be a services and subscription service. I don’t know that Lockhart enables any market penetration they wouldn’t have otherwise.

They’re hedging bets because they’re uncertain of what the market will want and are terrified of an Xbox One repeat. Phil himself admitted the SAD was an experiment.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Damn, I wish I could write it off, but when all the journalists are getting together to say the same thing; it's hard to ignore. Pointless to bring up a whole thread of this discussion again though.
Well really seems like they are on/off on this thing and potentially all the way up to reveal time. It's entirely possible that i suspect MS has a couple of avenues for flexibility for Lockhart if they really want to move forward with it.

To be fair, I don't think Phil ever fully confirmed there was absolutely no second console. Whenever pushed on it, he's used a lot of words to beat around the bush without actually saying there was definitely only one console for next gen.

Words where the person reading could interpret it however they wanted. Just look at that Eurogamer interview I linked in the Baseless rumors thread. They tried very hard to pin him down to one console and he just talked around it without saying whether there will be one or more than one console.

But, I'm not omniscient, so perhaps there's an interview out there somewhere from a few months ago where he actually said there would be just one console for next gen. I've just never seen one where he has. I think the closest may have been him saying they are focused on one console at the moment, which could mean a lot of things.

Regards,
SB

 

[Proelite]

But... hardly anyone has them, and they’re nowhere near final, because MS wants to surprise Sony this time.

Is the verge a reliable source?

You need to take a chill pill right now because it's not going to get any easier for console warriors.

 

[MrFox]

You need to take a chill pill right now because it's not going to get any easier for console warriors.

Can you elaborate on this? Or did you misunderstand my tone?

 

[iroboto]

Can you elaborate on this? Or did you misunderstand my tone?

Lol. If you didn’t recall that quote as a reader and read straight through LOL.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

I expected "next gen is doomed" posts duo to Lockhart on other forums, but not on B3D. If following specs pan out, there is 0 fear for next gen.

Anaconda/PS5 - 10TF RDNA, 8 core Zen2, RT hardware and aiming for 4K @30fps
Lockhart - 4-5TF RDNA, 8 core Zen2, RT hardware and aiming for 1440/1080p @30fps

Honestly, 50-60% less GPU power, while maintaining same arch and design, and all else being equal (CPU, RT HW and SSD), what is there to worry about? This is not PS2 or 360 generation, there are no fancy CPU parts or completely different GPU designs and features this time around. They are literally 1:1, with one shooting for 4x more pixes with 2-3x more TF.

 

[BetaGames]

Long time lurker. First time poster. Love the atmosphere and community here at Beyond. Great group of people!

A 2 sku launch surely has negatives and positives. If done correctly, giving consumers a viable option to upgrade to next-gen gaming while keeping the initial upfront cost within their budget, Microsoft can target some of the casual demographic right at launch versus the usual gradual drop in cost for price-conscious consumers. Pricing and advertising(clear messaging as well) will play a crucial part of their strategy. Confusion will cripple them straight out of the gate as witnessed before.

 

[iroboto]

I expected "next gen is doomed" posts duo to Lockhart on other forums, but not on B3D. If following specs pan out, there is 0 fear for next gen.

Anaconda/PS5 - 10TF RDNA, 8 core Zen2, RT hardware and aiming for 4K @30fps
Lockhart - 4-5TF RDNA, 8 core Zen2, RT hardware and aiming for 1440/1080p @30fps

Honestly, 50-60% less GPU power, while maintaining same arch and design, and all else being equal (CPU, RT HW and SSD), what is there to worry about? This is not PS2 or 360 generation, there are no fancy CPU parts or completely different GPU designs and features this time around. They are literally 1:1, with one shooting for 4x more pixes with 2-3x more TF.

I suspect (according to Phil's tweets) while the hardware and designs are finalized APU specs for retail may not be.

When you bin Anaconda, I can't see it being much more than just more reserved CUs and a slightly lower clock.

But the amount that it will be targeted for would depend on yield. If the upper yield for Anaconda is _very_ good, as in they can produce a ton of chips without issues; then Anaconda could be sold without reservation CUs, and then they move the bottom end up. If they can't make enough yield at the upper end, then Anaconda is going to need reservations and lockhart will need to drop further as a result.

They still need an APU SKU for xCloud unless they intend to have X1S run all future scarlett games as well.

It's a sound strategy imo especially if yields are good. It lets MS reach for that better performance/price point for their entire customer base than without it.

On a dual SKU strategy, I would lean in favour of Anaconda being more powerful or priced cheaper than PS5 just given the nature of binning. And if we keep the 2:1 ratio of PS4:XBO, the binning strategy may work well for MS because the volumes are 1/2. TLDR: competing and teh same price/performance Xbox may only ever hold another 2:1 ratio. Releasing a second SKU with a lower price point will allow them to even that ratio out with price conscious customers.

ie you're asking the customers to trade the discount for access to exclusive titles. Vs if they have the same price/performance than the customer will choose based on library.

 

[Shortbread]

On a dual SKU strategy, I would lean in favour of Anaconda being more powerful or priced cheaper than PS5 just given the nature of binning. And if we keep the 2:1 ratio of PS4:XBO, the binning strategy may work well for MS because the volumes are 1/2. TLDR: competing and teh same price/performance Xbox may only ever hold another 2:1 ratio. Releasing a second SKU with a lower price point will allow them to even that ratio out with price conscious customers.

This will only work if Sony releases a single system during launch. But...

According to Japanese games journalist Zenji Nishikawa, Sony will be releasing a PlayStation 5 Pro alongside the base version of its next console. He claims on his YouTube channel that the machine will cost between $100 to $150 more than the standard PS5.

 

[iroboto]

This will only work if Sony releases a single system during launch. But...

Yea that would be pretty intense. MS would be aiming too low here if their high end is Sony's base model. Unfortunately we haven' seen a lot of rumours converge on that single point. Hard to take that one seriously compared the Lockhart/Anaconda split that has been discussed for some time now.

 

[Shortbread]

Yea that would be pretty intense. MS would be aiming too low here if their high end is Sony's base model. Unfortunately we haven' seen a lot of rumours converge on that single point. Hard to take that one seriously compared the Lockhart/Anaconda split that has been discussed for some time now.

Sony playing 4D chess. Wanting to surprise Microsoft...

 

[Deleted member 13524]

We're not all made of money.

Black market organ traders:

 

[Tkumpathenurpahl]

I am. Generalizations like that are never good. We're not all made of money.

Tommy McClain

 

[Barrabas]

What happens if the PS5 is in between Lockhart and Anaconda and PS5 Pro is above Anaconda?.
I personally hope the rumor of PS5 Pro simultaneous release is true even if it's just a better cooling system with silent operation. Instant buy for me. I hate fan noise! Sony can release a PS5 Pro+ later on

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What happens if the PS5 is in between Lockhart and Anaconda and PS5 Pro is above Anaconda?.

What happens if each version of PS5 is $200 more than its XB counterpart? What happens if PS5 Pros are in demand but Sony expects the basic model to be most popular and suffers a year of lack of stock? What happens is PS5 is weaker than Lockhart? What happens if PS5 Pro isn't even a thing?

 

[BRiT]

What happens if the PS5 is in between Lockhart and Anaconda and PS5 Pro is above Anaconda?.

But what if Anaconda Pro is above 5Pro?

 

[Barrabas]

He he that was some fuel in the discussion. Yes lot of ifs. Anyhow, I have stated before that I would love the possibility to buy a high end console like any other electronic product in the market, and no I do not want to have a gaming PC anymore. I am not sure if its a good idea to release two consoles that are very much apart from another. I believe more in a slightly upgraded console also not to confuse developers and maybe result in games not fully exploiting a vastly more powerful console. Exciting times indeed.

 

[Jay]

Bad internet isn't the same as no internet.
People currently download games over far from ideal connections currently.
But those connections wouldn't give a nice gaming experience on a TV. This idea that if someone wants a cheap next gen experience can just stream makes out that streaming is the same as playing local.
Xbox sade, can be used for streaming and local current gen games. (by next year how cheap will that be)
Lockhart next gen diskless, local play. Around 1440p will work well for both 1080p super sampling, and upscaling to 4k. Students, second console, second room, people who don't play enough to justify paying for Anaconda, it's a decent market, considering kneecaping second hand sales.
Anaconda top of their range console.

1S probably would continue to be sold for few years also.

Although regardless I would be pleasantly surprised if xcloud gets upgraded to Scarlett at launch, but I could see that being say a year after Scarlett launch.

But, sure there are pros and cons to a multiple sku and single sku launches.

 

[Barrabas]

But what if Anaconda Pro is above 5Pro?

Anaconda Pro has not been rumored, yet. That would be something, a 3 console launch from MS.