*spin-off* Console Launch Price Discussion

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by anexanhume, Feb 7, 2013.

  1. anexanhume

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    To play devil's advocate in terms of cost, 666 MHz XDR2 (16 transfers per cycle), gets you ~168 Gb/s on a 128 bit memory bus. XDR declined pretty gracefully in terms of cost on the PS3 :p
     
  2. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    The news that WiiU is losing about 20$ per console is scary, unless there's an indication that something went seriously wrong with the WiiU production, I don't know how the PS4 can have over 4x the power, a 500GB HDD, 4GB GDDR5, and include two cameras in a $399 package. It's inconceivable that they'd play loss leader this time, I'm expecting a 499 launch. (unless it's not GDDR5 and/or cameras are not included?)
     
  3. anexanhume

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    It's the tablet. The production cost on that thing is probably at least $75. A big reason I'm sure they're not even ready to sell it independently yet.
     
  4. AlphaWolf

    AlphaWolf Specious Misanthrope
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    XDR2 makes a really nice white paper.

    I really don't know how fast gddr5 will scale down in price in large volumes, but losing $100 a unit for a year could still cost you $1B, what's the case for it earning that back over the following 5 years?
     
  5. anexanhume

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    I don't have a case :lol: If it's me, I slap 4GB GDDR5 in it and make developers work with that and hope more loading screens is the worst of it.

    I also don't know latency of XDR2 vs. GDDR5. I just felt it was getting left out and hadn't been mentioned in a while :wink:
     
  6. Silent_Buddha

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    Unlikely if Orbis does indeed feature an SOC (CPU/GPU in the same chip). That would mean you'd have basically a 512 bit bus to memory coming off of the SOC. That would mean the chip would have to be quite large otherwise it would be pad limited making a 512 bit bus to memory impossible to achieve.

    Now if it was 2 chips that becomes potentially possible. Now just thinking about that possibility (not that I think anything remotely like this is what is going on.

    But if the SOC was actually only the Jaguar cores + a 4 CU GPU with a secondary GPU with 14 CUs on another chip but possibly on the same package that could also explain the 14+4 from the VGleaks info. In theory you might then be able to get what you suggested without having to have a large chip.

    While the above isn't likely to be the case, that would also go a ways towards explaining why the 4 CUs wouldn't add much to graphics rendering as the only way you'd be able to use it for graphics rendering would be through CrossfireX.

    Anyway, as I said, this is unlikely to be the case. But it's fun to speculate on "what if."

    Regards,
    SB
     
  7. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    It's possible, but there doesn't seem to be any expensive part in the pad. It's even a resistive touch screen, the bottom of the barrel. With that kind of specs, there are a number of android tablets and touch screen media players that retail for 49$ (but without the fancy controls, and they are cheap chinese brands).
     
  8. anexanhume

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    I haven't looked at the teardowns, but I am curious how much their transceiver is, given how latency sensitive it has to be.
     
  9. dagamer

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    $75 in production costs would be about $100-150 in retail dollars out of the Wii U's retail price of $299. Since we know that it takes only one game to be profitable, that makes the break-even point somewhere around $310-320. My guess is that the system would probably cost an extra $50 to be in line with Nintendo's typical profit margins for a console launch.
     
  10. Squilliam

    Squilliam Beyond3d isn't defined yet
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    I wouldn't be surprised if the prices were $299 / $399 respectively for Microsoft given the fact that these seem to be the sweet spots for the core / casual markets alike. I would probably add another $100 each way for Sony given the fact that the Orbis console has much more expensive memory and likely runs hotter which necessitates more expensive cooling and likely has a larger APU to fabricate which I would presume won't have as good yields due to it being likely larger with more logic compared to Durango which has SRAM.
     
  11. Gubbi

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    $299/$399 for core/premium.

    Contracts with Live gold:
    Premium: $25/month for 24 months or $45/month for 12 months.
    Core: $20/month for 24 months or $35/month for 12 months.

    Cheers
     
  12. TrungGap

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    PS4 with PS Eye --> $499 USD
    xbox3 with K2 --> $499 USD
     
  13. dagamer

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    Too expensive. The base SKUs for both really need to be near $399 including PSEye/Kinect 2.0. My only question is what will they include to justify the $100 price increase for that higher end SKU because hard drive space can't be it alone.
     
  14. djskribbles

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    Base:
    PS Eye/K2, 500GB HDD, 1-month of premium service - $399-$449

    Premium:
    PS Eye/K2, 1TB HDD, HDMI cable, 1-year of premium service - $499-$549

    Or possibly a voucher for a downloadable game, or an extra controller.
     
    #54 djskribbles, Mar 2, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 2, 2013
  15. Wynix

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    PS4 base model = $399 but small chance it being $349

    PS4 premium = $100 above base model(too predictable)

    In addition to that the PS4 features such as Gaikai streamed content, cross game chat, stream your games, spectate other peoples games, ability to let other people play your game remotely will require a premium Playstation account(PS + Gold or something similar).

    Online multiplayer will not require a payed account, this way Sony can still brag about having free online when Xbox requires Gold membership.

    I would like to add that i think there is 0% chance that the base model will be above $400, i do not believe it at all.
     
    #55 Wynix, Mar 2, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 2, 2013
  16. Arwin

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    PS3 base model 399,-, 360 base model 349,-
     
  17. dagamer

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    I think you are a few years too late on that one.
     
  18. Wynix

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    Assuming you meant the next Xbox; why do you think MS will price it below Sony? because the new Kinect aint going to be cheap, and if MS somehow do set base model price at $349 i can see a Strong possibility that Sony will match it.
     
  19. ramr

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    Almost certainly, MS is going to launch at $299 with kinect given the current specs. I expect $99 with live contract. I also thank the there will be premium SKU, the only questions is $399 or 499. I am hoping $499 with hardware justifying the price increment.
     
  20. Hardknock

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    I hope 299 is right but I wouldn't put it past MS to price Durango the same price as the ps4 even with inferior hardware just because MS feels they can get away with it. Kinect was a whopping $150 at launch and we've seen the ridiculous price gouging on HDDs and other accessories. MS main goal this go around is to make profit as quickly as possible this time.
     
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