So, ATI is doomed..?

Dave Baumann said:
Comparing one against the other is never going to lead to anything conclusive. All that can be said is that they have different design teams with different architectures and different goals at the times when these roadmaps were set in place.

I kind of think comparing them will be very interesting--once ATi ships its version of SM3.0, that is. In fact, I can already smell an enlightening B3d article around just that point simmering somehwere in the continuum...;)
 
Bouncing Zabaglione Bros. said:
Folks, as I said at the beginning, it's been only six/seven weeks since G70 launched. ...
It's just silly to suggest ATI is doomed, or even hurting until we know whether R520 and it's derivatives are going to be a good product or when it's going to arrive. One company was always going to ship a few weeks before the other - that was never going to decide the best product.

Why bother with common sense when there are so few ears hankering to hear it?....;)

(Just kidding, sort of. Heh...;))
 
nvidia may get hurt really bad in this . Ati is on the smaller micron . Its possible that they can come out with a graphics card just a month or two after the geforce 7800gtx and is much faster it will hurt nvidia and no one will remember how great the g70 performed
 
jvd said:
nvidia may get hurt really bad in this . Ati is on the smaller micron . Its possible that they can come out with a graphics card just a month or two after the geforce 7800gtx and is much faster it will hurt nvidia and no one will remember how great the g70 performed

I know it's all based on conjecture, but everything (mostly Baumann-speak) suggests that R520 will be roughly on par with G70 performancewise. If so, ATI will have to be innovative with respect to features to cast any shadows on the GTX, regardless of being first to market with 90nm. If the rumours are true about a 110nm Ultra version of G70 (and I'm sure ATI is expecting it), then my guess is that R520 will quickly migrate one slot down the performance scale and they'll try to launch R580 as their enthusiast board before the end of the year. NVDA would then be left to counter with a 90nm G70 refresh, assuming TSMC has taped out such a part (I've heard of no such reports as of yet).
 
Dave Baumann said:
Comparing one against the other is never going to lead to anything conclusive. All that can be said is that they have different design teams with different architectures and different goals at the times when these roadmaps were set in place.

This statement is, at best, a semantic. Not only comparing can solely be done with one against (an)other(s), but comparing is often, if not most, useful to draw conclusions. (example: A and B are different -> Compare A and B -> Find out A has X but B doesn't -> X could be the factor)

I happened to click the link provided above, and all the questions asked to the CEO of ATI could essentially be translated to "NV40 has this and that, then why R420 does not?" and its variations. Of course his answer was "We have different architectures and different goals." I wonder that's how he answered at the investors conference (just to piss them off :D ).

Although I have no first-hand knowledge of ATI's current finacial situation and the state of the R520, I find Overclocked_Enthusiasm's opinion somewhat make sense. If one were to argue, s/he should bring the same degree of knowledge and/or insight to the table, IMO.

lop
 
There’s a fundamental difference in comparing final products (and the resultant effects of those products) to considering what might have driven those decisions two or three years back when those products were starting in design and the companies were setting their flag posts in the ground for what they wanted to achieve with them and what they felt would be needed in order to achieve various requirements / wants.
 
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nutball said:
Walking on water is also possible, if you run fast enough. Ask any helicopter.

except the one they picked up from 48 meters deep sea near city of Tallinn, Estonia, yesterday.
 
nutball said:
Walking on water is also possible, if you run fast enough. Ask any helicopter.
Sorry for going OT, but did you see the Top Gear program where they were in a car that was driven on water? Amazing.
 
That thing was nuts. A good 900hp or so with tyres cut so they'd act like propellers. I want one :cool:
 
Well, they are as close to doomed as you can get. What a pathetic showing by a company that was on top of the world 12 months ago. As a former shareholder of ATYT I am furious at this gross mismanagement and poor execution. There is no excuse for this type of performance and Orton should be fired.

I expect Q4 EPS to come in at a loss of (.35) +/- .05 from the projected .09 gain. This will give ATI a P/E of over 120 for fiscal 2005. ATI will be on sale for $8 in the coming weeks and will be fairly priced at that amount IF they can generate .50 in EPS for fiscal 2006. If ATI can't generate .50 in earnings in 2006 than $8 is too much to pay for that stock.

What a fricking mess. How can you miss by $100 million or 20% when you just gave guidance in June??? Orton can say whatever he wants for guidance and NOBODY will listen. 3 quarters in a row they have missed and guidance has been wrong each time. Wall Street will take a SHOW ME attitude now and ATI can say whatever they want but NOBODY is stupid enough to listen this time.
 
overclocked_enthusiasm said:
Well, they are as close to doomed as you can get. What a pathetic showing by a company that was on top of the world 12 months ago. As a former shareholder of ATYT I am furious at this gross mismanagement and poor execution. There is no excuse for this type of performance and Orton should be fired.

I expect Q4 EPS to come in at a loss of (.35) +/- .05 from the projected .09 gain. This will give ATI a P/E of over 120 for fiscal 2005. ATI will be on sale for $8 in the coming weeks and will be fairly priced at that amount IF they can generate .50 in EPS for fiscal 2006. If ATI can't generate .50 in earnings in 2006 than $8 is too much to pay for that stock.

What a fricking mess. How can you miss by $100 million or 20% when you just gave guidance in June??? Orton can say whatever he wants for guidance and NOBODY will listen. 3 quarters in a row they have missed and guidance has been wrong each time. Wall Street will take a SHOW ME attitude now and ATI can say whatever they want but NOBODY is stupid enough to listen this time.

Because they discovered the problems with the R520 and RV530 in July. Then they had fantastic yields on chips that they were paying per die. That left them with $450 million in inventory.
 
rwolf said:
Because they discovered the problems with the R520 and RV530 in July. Then they had fantastic yields on chips that they were paying per die. That left them with $450 million in inventory.
You believe that?
I'd rather think that this big inventory is due to overestimating sales than underestimating yields...
 
rwolf said:
Because they discovered the problems with the R520 and RV530 in July. Then they had fantastic yields on chips that they were paying per die. That left them with $450 million in inventory.
What kind of wacko agreement is that anyway? Buying all the goods your supplier can produce (from a set number of raw goods) at a fixed price no matter what you actually need/want?

And no matter what the current inventory situation is, it doesn't explain a revenue shortfall to ~20% below what the management expected just 2 months ago. This company is in dire need of a management change, IMO.
 
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