So, ATI is doomed..?

Discussion in 'Graphics and Semiconductor Industry' started by IbaneZ, Aug 13, 2005.

  1. IbaneZ

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    Ratchet, the R3D guy, posted a pretty sad thread over at R3D and i hope he's wrong. :)

     
  2. Geo

    Geo Mostly Harmless
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    Uh huh. And the "doomed" part?
     
  3. Farid

    Farid Artist formely known as Vysez
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    Yes, they are.

    Now that I answered this crucial question, let's forget this subject once for all. [​IMG]
     
  4. Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.

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    Nahh, ATI are still not out of the window, as long as they (a) come up with something good, and (b) have availability straight away. Think about it - how long ago did Nvidia launch/ship G70? 6-8 weeks back? Not a heck of a lot really, certainly not enough to be a "huge lead".

    If R520 is good and sells well and has decent yields, ATI should make a lot of money off each wafer due to the .90 process. If NV30 being nearly a year late and being crap with it in the face of a much better competing product didn't doom Nvidia, then a good R520 being 12 weeks later than G70 is not going to doom ATI.

    However, if R520 doesn't live up to it's rumoured specs and speed, doesn't have good yields, or isn't out there and widely available by October by the latest, then ATI is going to have a very, very lousy 2005/6.
     
  5. Skrying

    Skrying S K R Y I N G
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    Its going to come down to more on when the mid range cards come out. If Nvidia doesnt speed those up then I think they'll be kicking themselves in the ass. They have a chance to get all of those parts out earlier, and if ATcan get the mid range parts out close to Nvidia's then I think they have really little to worry about.
     
  6. Sxotty

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    That is true
     
  7. Razor1

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    Well if nV is waiting for ATi's mid range to speed bump them ATi will still end up losing ground. nV already has a nice market and mind share with the 6600's so they really have no need to bring out the 7600's till they know the competition. The 6800 gt pcie-e are going to be dropping prices to fill up the x800xl space. nV has all bases covered for the time being.

    ATi isn't doomed but are hurting.
     
  8. Sobek

    Sobek Locally Operating
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    Remember the FX series, Nvidia was 'doomed' there...

    This is just a poor choice of words for an overrated subject. No ones doomed, not in the slightest. Nv dropped the ball with the fx while ati took the lead with the 9x series, now Nv's taken the lead while ati's dropped the ball with getting r520 out.

    For gods sake so many people think the apocalypse is coming or something...
     
  9. Rur0ni

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    Is it possible to be doomed when you have your GPU in 2 upcoming next gen consoles? And they will sell.
     
  10. Arun

    Arun Unknown.
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    Regarding midrange: the G71 is ramping up. And yes, it's on 90nm.
    Also, the problem with the R520 vs G70 isn't only money or yields. It's also the halo effect. And ATI will have lost the midrange by the time theirs is out because of it.

    As for "ATI being doomed"... Yes and no. The problem with a company like ATI or NVIDIA is that they have a ridiculous amount of R&D expenses, and they cannot easily reduce it for a specific timeframe. That means that their overall margins (not the gross margins) tend to be quite weak; if revenue and/or gross margins go down even slightly, their net margins could go to hell, or they could even lose a bunch of money.

    So, what am I saying here? Don't expect a good Q3 for ATI. In fact, expect a CATASTROPHIC one - a loss, and without one-time-expenses excuses this time around. The only way out of that would be if they would already be receiving XBox360-related money, but afaik, that's only for Q4.

    Long-term, if ATI can stand strong internally, I think they are still in a good position. The absolute worst-case scenario would be if their whole R(V)5xx lineup failed to do well in Q4, and NVIDIA/Sony managed to use their current market superiority to hype the PS3 (ala PS2) to reduce XBox360 sales. The latter is possible imo, but a full lineup failure seems very unlikely to me; the RV515, at least, looks good on paper imo.

    As for 2006, ATI's R600 is "proved" technology, so even if they fucked up late 05, they'd most likely get their lineup back in shape for mid-06, imo.

    Uttar
    P.S.: I wouldn't dare trying to count the posts assuming the G70 margins aren't that great (heck, even AnandTech said it), while in fact the exact contrary is true.
     
  11. Doomtrooper

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    Yes that revenue will certainly help, this thread title is funny
     
  12. Rys

    Rys PowerVR
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    Riiiiiiiiight. So a thread at R3D about ATI's advantages, of which there's many, both currently tangible and internally hidden in various things, turns into a thread here asking if ATI is doomed?

    What a joke. If you have to ask that in all seriousness (unless this thread is a joke?), it shows a fairly deep seated misunderstanding about how consumer 3D is working right now.

    They simply are not, end of.

    Ask the same question Ratchet did by all means (it's a great question) but don't twist it into something as strong as "is ATI doomed?" :!:
     
  13. Geo

    Geo Mostly Harmless
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    6600GT proved pretty conclusively how limited the halo effect is.
     
  14. Dave Baumann

    Dave Baumann Gamerscore Wh...
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    G72 was scheduled before G71.
     
  15. Arun

    Arun Unknown.
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    It was? Okay, guess that makes sense, thanks for the info Dave. Now I'd still like to know whether Jen-Hsun considered the C51 as one of the two "ramping 90nm product", but I guess I'll survive without knowing it for a while.

    Uttar
     
  16. Farid

    Farid Artist formely known as Vysez
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    Time to sell the furniture to pay yourselves ATI workers

    You're in denial, Rys.

    Ati is D00m3d, "why" you may ask with an inquisitive expression on your face.
    Well, that's simple, some random internet dudes said, conceitedly, that Ati was, as a matter of fact, doomed.
    Therefore it doesn't take a genius to deduce that Ati is indeed doomed.

    Random internet poster's , clueless about financial implications of Ati's decisions, opinion = Fact.

    Everybody knows that.
    Well, I thought that everybody knew that... But it seems that you, Rys, decided to pull a stupid and start using your, how you call that ... Brain... Or whatever...
     
    #16 Farid, Aug 13, 2005
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 13, 2005
  17. kemosabe

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    And what about these ongoing rumblings about RV530 being an offspring of R580 (not R520)? It would seem that the midrange might be much more interesting than either the low or high end for ATI this fall.
     
  18. IbaneZ

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    You really need to relax dude. I was just trying to get the B3D peeps to post something instead of just lurching. :)

    Chill..
     
  19. MasterBaiter

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    It wasn't too long ago that statements along the line of "Nvidia is doomed" echoed through online forums... It's the ebb & flow of the video card market.
    I seriously doubt ATI or Nvidia are going anywhere anytime soon, and I think thats a pretty damn good thing. :p
     
  20. oddfellow

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    ATI are no more doomed than nVidia was during their dark NV3x days.
     
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