Shane Bettenhausen (1up) rumours canned 360 project?*

1st Party
Banjo 3
Fable 2
Halo Wars
Peter Jackson Halo games
Marvel Universe Online
[Assumed To Be Coming: Perfect Dark 3, Kameo 2, another Viva game]

3rd Party MGS Published
Too Human
Lost Odessey
Blue Dragon 2
Alan Wake
Mass Effect

Shane is full of it quite often (DMC4 PS3 exclusive for example) but after the Killer Bs: Mass Effect going multiplatform, cutting ties with Bizarre Studios, and losing confidence in their star studio and demanding to be independant, anything coming out of MS wouldn't be surprising. They pissed off Bungie at E3, pissed off Epic over DLC, and somehow lost their angle on Wolfenstein.

So, does the ax fall on Robbie Bach, Shane Kim, J Allard, or Jeff Bell?
 
1st Party
Banjo 3
Fable 2
Halo Wars
Peter Jackson Halo games
Marvel Universe Online
[Assumed To Be Coming: Perfect Dark 3, Kameo 2, another Viva game]

3rd Party MGS Published
Too Human
Lost Odessey
Blue Dragon 2
Alan Wake
Mass Effect

Shane is full of it quite often (DMC4 PS3 exclusive for example) but after the Killer Bs: Mass Effect going multiplatform, cutting ties with Bizarre Studios, and losing confidence in their star studio and demanding to be independant, anything coming out of MS wouldn't be surprising. They pissed off Bungie at E3, pissed off Epic over DLC, and somehow lost their angle on Wolfenstein.

So, does the ax fall on Robbie Bach, Shane Kim, J Allard, or Jeff Bell?

Robbie Bach: He was just in the press release for the kids moderation stuff for the 360. I don't think it's him

Shane Kim: He knows next to nothing about games. He's all about he P&Ls. No more, no less.

J Allard: Bill Gates loves him. He's the #1 baby Bill. I'd peg him as most likely to succeed Steve Ballmer, honestly.

Jeff Bell: I don't know that much about him. E3 gaffs aside, look at the marketing for Gears, Halo and soon to be Mass Effect. He's no fool, but he does have a black hole of money at his disposal.

I'd say Shane Kim. I want it to be Shane Kim. They need someone that understands gaming at the helm. I wish J Allard would come back to the 360 team because he is still with the Zune team.
 
If it is Halo Wars, then I hope they're just canceling it on Xbox 360 and moving it over to PC...

I would suspect that that would require a near complete re-design. Competing as an RTS on the 360 is one thing. Competing with PC RTS's on their home turf with an interface and gameplay designed for a game console would be suicidal. You could use the assets and unit designs, but there would still be a lot of work required to get it up to PC standards.
 
Aren't all Microsoft-publishing titles first party? The OP says a first-party title, not a first-party dev. Forza and PGR are usually called first-party.

Remedy is as much first party as Epic for example (not so much) Remedy owns all the rights to the Alan Wake name for example. Remedys style has never been to hype their game until close to the release, likewise MS has made it very clear that in 2007 they talk about games released in 2007. There really is zero evidence that the game to be cancelled is Alan Wake.

but after the Killer Bs: Mass Effect going multiplatform
Has such an announcement been made?
 
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Has such an announcement been made?

No.

<edit>

Found Here

"The thing we can tell you about the future of Mass Effect very simply is that there's going to be a trilogy; we've been on record in the past as saying we want that whole trilogy to be on the console", BioWare's Greg Zeschuk told GameDaily.

"We have no plans currently to pursue that. Our focus is pure and simple; it's to deliver the best game possible for our fans with Mass Effect, and that's an Xbox 360 exclusive. Microsoft's a great partner...and they've really helped build the value of the product and we're proud to work with them."
 
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Has such an announcement been made?

No.

But look at the evidence. MS was "shocked" at the Bioware/Pandemic aquisition and was going to have "discussions" and "talk" with EA about Mass Effect. If they had the trilogy exclusive, you would have expected, "This doesn't change our business relationship or the trilogy exclusive on the Xbox 360". Further, the recent comments in their spin/damage control interview they distance themselves from the game to a degree and open the door to "well, consumers didn't respond well" as an out for not tieing up exclusivity.

Don’t assume that – we’re having discussions with BioWare. The first Mass Effect is still to come out, and I don’t want to get away ahead of that – the game has been built completely by that developer’s rules; it’s BioWare telling a story the way they want to tell it. So firstly I want to see how gamers respond to that. As for our future in that franchise – we feel very good about it, it’s still something that plays an important part in our portfolio, BioWare are a great partner, and I’m looking forward to discussing what we can do with them.

Yeah, "Bungie did Halo 3 their way, so I want to see how gamers respond to Halo 3 before we tie up Halo 4". Bioware is a AAA developer and has made a lot of great games. There should be no question--especially when you have been hyping the game yourself.

Looks pretty bad when you have to downplay your own exclusives.

Truly, a couple more heads at MGS need to roll. Bach and Kim seem like really nice guys, but the studio has been mismanaged, they haven't managed Rare or Bungie well at all, they destroyed FASA and Digital Anvil, and their series of gaffs have sneaked under the radar mainly due to Sony's incompetance. MS started off well, but made a lot of mistakes, both strategical and in execution, and seem to have failed in keeping a focused vision on console cost reduction as well as securing a longterm portfolio for their Xbox brand.

Buying $20M exclusives works great when you are the only console on the market. You fund a company to do a next gen title. As there is no competition they have no real option but to delay--and what better than using MS money to get a headstart on next gen and make a name for yourself. But you still need someone to make titles that push your platform, and you need to cover your bases incase someone comes out first and/or the same time or cheaper and competitively.

A lot of their problems stem from a preoccupation with FY profits (June 2008), and it does appear to a degree they have put 2008 profits above geneational profits. They are in a great position to be the "PS2" of this generation from a 3rd party perspective, but their market penetration is far, far too low. MS lacks the internal studios to do as Nintendo does (release a fair number of internal titles that sell great; 3rd parties not so great) and lacks the 3rd party sales Sony had with the PS2 due to the install base and lacks the depth and breadth of Sony's internal stufios (which benefit from having tens of millions of consumers to sell too... how well would Halo 2 have sold on the PS2?)

MS's financial strategy appears to have been built on quicksand. With no Halo 3 in 2008--and no Mass Effect, Forza Motorsport 2, PGR4, Bioshock [2K] either--MGS doesn't appear to have the titles one-up 2007, even with GOW2. And with a total marketshare that probably won't exceed the mid-twenty million range in consoles sold they won't be reaping the sort of royalties Sony did with the PS2 and PS1. Their console remains overpriced with laughable price movement, horrid perephrial pricing, and high priced games which require you to pay to [correction] play online. You can see how the Wii and PS3 respond to that. And while Sony is in deep, deep trouble with the PS3, MS has allowed them to hang around. It gets a few killer apps, moves some hardware in Japan and Europe and continues to drive toward some price parity with the Premium in 2008 ... yep, totally mismanaged situation.

MS was in a position to step right into Sony's shoes, but that oppurtunity has passed, and with it the possibility of a strong financial windfall for investors. It seems MS is right now trying to get the table scraps and break even for the year and seems to have lost a lot of input into their future, notable in regards to software.

It says a lot when Bungie gets crapped on days before E3 and are told they need to produce E3 media and that Epic needs to stealth whine to the press about how MS is overbearing in regards to consumer content and milking consumers.

There was a reason Bungie transplanted to their own campus and felt compelled to cut some ties with MS. They aren't being managed well, and that can be seen in their poor execution over the last couple years.

"We are proud to annouced RE5 for the Xbox 360... wuuuhh? You already knew it was coming?" :LOL:
 
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No.
But look at the evidence. MS was "shocked" at the Bioware/Pandemic aquisition and was going to have "discussions" and "talk" with EA about Mass Effect. If they had the trilogy exclusive, you would have expected, "This doesn't change our business relationship or the trilogy exclusive on the Xbox 360". Further, the recent comments in their spin/damage control interview they distance themselves from the game to a degree and open the door to "well, consumers didn't respond well" as an out for not tieing up exclusivity.

Agreed, but if Mass Effect does really well, then MS has an incentitive to secure the trilogy as an exclusive. I agree with you that they should have secured it already, but at this point it could go either way.
 
Acert, I do agree that MS could have done better than they did, but you are exaggerating wildly here.

Their console remains overpriced with laughable price movement, horrid perephrial pricing, and high priced games which require you to play online.
Require you to be online? When I look at the gamerankings top20, more than half of the titles have a strong singleplayer component with multiplayer to boot, there are seven strictly singleplayer titles (BioShock, TES4, Castlevania, Burnout?, TES4:SI, GeoWars, Skate?) and only two mostly multiplayer titles (CoD2 and CoD4). Since when is offering both good single- and multiplayer a bad thing?

With regards to high-pricing, I guess $60 / EUR60 is a lot (not that it reflects in attach rate), that's why personally I buy most from Asia (for regionfree games) or Australia (for PAL games), and even then Mediamarket often has new high-profile games for EUR50. Not to mention 360 already has a nice backlog of budget titles. I saw an ad GoW for $20. High-priced? Not at all.

And last thing I knew, high priced peripherals were a good thing from a business perspective.

MS's financial strategy appears to have been built on quicksand. With no Halo 3 in 2008--and no Mass Effect, Forza Motorsport 2, PGR4, Bioshock [2K] either--MGS doesn't appear to have the titles one-up 2007, even with GOW2.
Given that Halo3 made more money than EA on 360 in six months that is not really a surprise financially. It is true that the 2007 line-up is excellent, and it will be hard to surpass (even outside of Halo), but you make it sound like we have seen it all. The whole reason we haven't heard about 2008 is exactly because the 2007 line-up is so strong! And even then, many good titles are known: both exclusives (Splinter Cell: Conviction, Too Human, Banjo, GoW2, Ninja Gaiden 2, Alan Wake, Lost odyssey, Infinite Undiscovery, Fable2 - remove one title if you like as per rumor), and multiplatform (GTA4, Last Remnant). And since 360 is apparantly an FPS-only console, add the dozen or so FPS that will undoubtedly come out as well. ;)
 
No.

But look at the evidence. MS was "shocked" at the Bioware/Pandemic aquisition and was going to have "discussions" and "talk" with EA about Mass Effect. If they had the trilogy exclusive, you would have expected, "This doesn't change our business relationship or the trilogy exclusive on the Xbox 360". Further, the recent comments in their spin/damage control interview they distance themselves from the game to a degree and open the door to "well, consumers didn't respond well" as an out for not tieing up exclusivity.

I think you're reading too much into that. To me that reads as if MS has first rights of refusal on sequels but in turn wants to see how the first one sales before making any commitments.

If this becomes a huge seller you better believe MS will lock it up. Bioshock was rumored to be multiplatform (then reviews and sales came in) and we all see how that went.
 
ErnstH--I forget the words "pay to" play online. Sorry about that, I corrected my brain typing error.

On game pricing, I picked up CoD4 on the PC for $50 and the Wii has a lot of new games at $40. I don't think $60 is the end of the world--but when you have a 2 year old console over $300, you have to pay to play online, and a controller costs over $50, it just adds salt to the wound.

How many people thought MS would stick at $399 for 21 months? This is one reason that the 360 console sales are within 10% of Xbox1 sales for a similar launch-to-date window. The 360 has bette games, better, support, and is positioned more strongly in the industry but its market penetration is lagging.

The 360 has some nice 2008 titles: Gears of War 2, Alan Wake, Splinter Cell: Conviction, Too Human, Ninja Gaiden. But MGS themselves will have, what, Banjo 3 and Fable 2? Maybe PD3?

I am not saying the 360 will have a weak software year, only that a) MGS isn't pushing out a lot of titles, thus MGS won't be making a lot of money from 1st party apps and b) the Xbox 360 install base isn't huge, so MS cannot be relying on a Sony/PS1/2-like royalty system as a foundation (IMO) for longterm profits. They don't seem to be interested in either route, either, in light of recent events and strategic moves.

Hence my criticism of their management.
 
As my musings in other threads, perhaps MS aren't truly serious about dominating the console market as much as they just want to control that infamous content portal? From their POV, the TV service providers using their software could be their intention now, and they just see XB360 as a challenger to keep Sony out of that space long enough that they become the standard. In that respect they may be happy to have XB360 just ticking over toward profitability, saving all their investment money for other investments where they hope for better returns? If their intentions are to be the dominant console market player, they're not doing much to secure that, which is contrary to typical MS business strategy, no? Normally it's 'there's a market. Let's bulldoze our way to control it!'
 
As my musings in other threads, perhaps MS aren't truly serious about dominating the console market as much as they just want to control that infamous content portal? From their POV, the TV service providers using their software could be their intention now, and they just see XB360 as a challenger to keep Sony out of that space long enough that they become the standard. In that respect they may be happy to have XB360 just ticking over toward profitability, saving all their investment money for other investments where they hope for better returns? If their intentions are to be the dominant console market player, they're not doing much to secure that, which is contrary to typical MS business strategy, no? Normally it's 'there's a market. Let's bulldoze our way to control it!'

If that is their strategy, publishers should be concerned. From a gamer and game maker perspective, you should be concerned about the broader gaming ecosystem and its health. Gamers want a broad selection of quality games; publishers need healthy sales to support the development of quality games across a broad spectrum. Stagnation will rise up if the install base is too small to support ingenuity and smaller/newer niche titles. There was a time when FPS and sports were "small fries" in gaming afterall.
 
a) MGS isn't pushing out a lot of titles, thus MGS won't be making a lot of money from 1st party apps

No, but they in a position to absolutely clean up as a publisher.
- Fable 2
- GoW2
- Ninja Gaiden
- Alan Wake
- Banjo 3
- Too Human
- Lost Odyssey

All probable million sellers, with the possible exception of Too Human.
 
If that is their strategy, publishers should be concerned. From a gamer and game maker perspective, you should be concerned about the broader gaming ecosystem and its health. Gamers want a broad selection of quality games; publishers need healthy sales to support the development of quality games across a broad spectrum. Stagnation will rise up if the install base is too small to support ingenuity and smaller/newer niche titles. There was a time when FPS and sports were "small fries" in gaming afterall.
With all due respect, 3rd party publishers have only one console manufacturer at the moment that is making them money, and that's Microsoft. I hardly think they should be "concerned".
 
With all due respect, 3rd party publishers have only one console manufacturer at the moment that is making them money, and that's Microsoft. I hardly think they should be "concerned".

So after a decade of building a business on two platforms that peaked with over 100M units (each), suddenly less-than 50M Xbox 360's isn't cause for concern?

It isn't a matter of the 360 being the most profitable now, I am looking at it from a more historical perspective. Do you expect the BEST 3rd party sales year on the Xbox 360 to match or exceed the best 3rd party sales years on the PS2? If not, then that is a cause for concern from a publisher perspective.
 
With the success of the Wii, literally spilitting the market, I don't think you'll see any manufacturer echo the sucess of PS2 this generation, though the overall industry will grow signficantly with the influx of new Wii gamers.

So no, the 360 will not match the PS2's software sales in it's best years, but neither will anyone else.

For the 360, I think you could make a very strong argument that their 08 lineup is stronger than their 07 lineup, in terms of sales and profits, but also in terms of mass appeal since it's a more diverse offering instead of consisting of 60% Halo sales.

07 Microsoft Published Titles:
Blue Dragon
Crackdown
Forza Motorsport 2
Halo 3
Project Gotham Racing 4
Shadowrun

Potential 08 Microsoft Published Titles:
Fable 2
GoW2
Ninja Gaiden
Alan Wake
Banjo 3
Too Human
Lost Odyssey
- Halo Wars?
 
It's hard to say - I definitely don't think the 360 (or PS3) will come anywhere near matching the PS2's hardware sales, and don't believe the Wii software sales will match the PS2's software sales.

I do think last gen was a unique generation with a single horse race that was pretty much a safe bet for publishers to back a single platform, and I don't think it's fair or accurate to start using that as a benchmark. Going forward, I think the 360 will continue to be the most successful console for software sales over the next 18 months or so. That's why I flagged your comment, Josh, around the fact that publishers should be "worried". All evidence points to the opposite, unless you've got new points to raise.
 
No, but they in a position to absolutely clean up as a publisher.
- Fable 2
- GoW2
- Ninja Gaiden
- Alan Wake
- Banjo 3
- Too Human
- Lost Odyssey

All probable million sellers, with the possible exception of Too Human.

I thought Too Human would be a prime candidate, given how bad its generally looked so far.

Given the 360 userbase, and how badly Viva Pinata flopped, I would be surprised if Banjo and Lost Odyssey go platinum. Especially considering how slowly the 360 userbase is growing outside of the US. I just cant see it.
 
For the 360, I think you could make a very strong argument that their 08 lineup is stronger than their 07 lineup, in terms of sales and profits, but also in terms of mass appeal since it's a more diverse offering instead of consisting of 60% Halo sales.
As PS3 titles seem to be suggesting, the market, at least the current install base, doesn't seem to care for diversity! The 'western shooter centric' game seems to be the way to make money at the moment, plus sports perennials and racers. Wii has its own dominant genre too. Platform(ish) titles and RPGs aren't getting anywhere on the whole, let alone the smaller genres. When the mass-market starts buying consoles, perhaps diversity will prove profitable and be a necessary draw to the machine, but I think the major limit then is price. Those who would want a console for diverse titles are perhaps those who won't look at owning one before they drop below $200 (or £200, or likewise local currency levels).

I don't think developers are truly in tune with what the market wants at different stages in its life-cycle. I'm sure I'm not in tune with what people want!
 
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