"[RSX] ... we're still waiting" - Anon games exec, BusinessWeek article

[Titanio]

PS3 - 100 mil
X360 - 60 mil
Rev - 40 mil

IMO this is reasonable, but 200 mil for PS3 in 5 years with much better competition and more expensive hardware is a pipe-dream.

It's completely unreasonable to expect market growth with Sony taking none of that, particularly given that Playstation has been the driver for growth for the last 10 years.

Anyway, these arguments are pointless - armchair strategising often looks hilarious in hindsight. Just wait and see what happens. I'd meant for this thread to focus on the RSX commentary, also - the 200m estimate is just unimportant fluff, as with pretty much all analyst forecasts.

 

[AlphaWolf]

My point is that HDTV are affordable. In time they will get even cheaper.

Yes but as time goes on the advantage of the ps3 being a cheaper player will erode. By the time 'everyone' has an HDTV there will be much cheaper/better blu-ray players (barring that they lose the format war) for the home.

 

[scificube]

I think there's at least 'something' special about RSX given how long it has taken to come about. The 7800 GTX has been around a good long while now. I'm just thinking it doesn't take this much time to move it to 90nm given no major architectural changes and really a clockrate hit on a higher process. I just got the feeling something's up here.

 

[Kb-Smoker]

Let's just say that in the office last week we got 3 spanking new PS3 devkits and even though they have the final spec Cell (3.2Ghz) the graphics card is still "Type C" = 7 series 512mb VRAM on PCIe and hence still has the above mentioned CPU-GPU bandwidth restriction.
This definitely does not look like a final dev kit and we are the end of December already.

what games are you guys working on?

Also was the blu-ray drive and hdd in this dev-kit.

 

[habbe]

smoke,



Why? ...because every single owner of a TV, could see the benefit DVD playback offered over VHS. The same can't be said about blueray, why? becuase you need an HDTV to see the benefit.

You didn't need a new TV to get the benefit out of DVD. I'm sure you can see that point?

I always thought it was the 5.1 sound that was the real benefit of course the image quality is better in every way but i still got the impression that the sound was the "thing" with the dvd format.

And i think it will be the same this time around, but instead of an 5.1 surround system it will be an HD-TV to see the real benefits.

 

[wco81]

I don't know that Blu-Ray or 1080p will be big factors in 2006 or 2007.

But by 2009 or 2010, they could be. Most of the sales could still be to DVDs and 1080i sets. However, you figure they will have some kind of volume.

Nobody is discounting HDTV when it comes to the X360. But they may miss an opportunity by sticking with DVD and they may miss an opportunity by sticking with 720p/1080i.

The thing is, if you read enthusiast AV sites, people bought digital TVs or HDTVs for enhanced DVD playback -- widescreen and progressive playback, 3:2 pulldown, etc.

And I'm not convinced that Blu-Ray discs won't have any benefits for SDTV. Higher bitrates, better codecs for one. The studios also apparently are big on interactive features (hence the BD-J vs. iHD debate). So there will be some ancillary content as well. Of course if they price Blu-Ray at a big premium to DVD or HD-DVD, then people with SDTVs would be discouraged.

Also, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD should both be better sources than anything else for existing HDTVs out there, which number into at least the mid-teens of millions, with annual sales growth in the triple digits or at least high double-digits.

Those of you who are sanguine about the X360's market share prospects in the next 5 years, you can bet that MS would love to have the projected sales growth curves of HDTVs. You talk about 100 million or more consoles sold in the next 5 years, there's a pretty good chance you'll get that kind of volumes for HDTVs.

Still think HDTVs are going to be too small to matter?

 

[Phil]

It's completely unreasonable to expect market growth with Sony taking none of that, particularly given that Playstation has been the driver for growth for the last 10 years.

Anyway, these arguments are pointless - armchair strategising often looks hilarious in hindsight. Just wait and see what happens. I'd meant for this thread to focus on the RSX commentary, also - the 200m estimate is just unimportant fluff, as with pretty much all analyst forecasts.

I second that. Another thing is what I'm thinking is that Revolution holds a lot of potential for gaining marketshare by reaching a new audience. In fact, I could very well see Nintendo profiting from being picked up as the second console by many in addition to expanding their audience into the market that currently buys their handhelds en mass.

 

[wco81]

I agree with Qroach. It's safe to say that the PS3 will not have as high a marketshare as the PS2 had. MS is sure to make gains this time around. Right now the market is roughly:

PS2 - 100 mil
Xbox - 25 mil
Cube - 25 mil

It won't surprise me to see 50 mil unit growth by 2011 to 200 mil with a breakdown something like this:

PS3 - 100 mil
X360 - 60 mil
Rev - 40 mil

IMO this is reasonable, but 200 mil for PS3 in 5 years with much better competition and more expensive hardware is a pipe-dream.

So MS doesn't have more expensive hardware than their previous unit and better competition yet MS is going to more than double their unit shipments?

Too much sugar in that Kool Aid.

 

[Megadrive1988]

I predict PS3 will sell 150 million units in 6 years. a little better than PS2.

 

[Megadrive1988]

btw now that Sony and Nvidia engineers have had a chance to see what Xbox 360 can do, I am keeping my fingers crossed for RSX being NV5X-based with 256-bit bus and GDDR4.
only that would be able to overcome the Xenos + EDRAM advantages IMO.

I can dream can't I ?

 

[pegisys]

So MS doesn't have more expensive hardware than their previous unit and better competition yet MS is going to more than double their unit shipments?

Too much sugar in that Kool Aid.

they have better games this time around the xbox didn't get any good games untill it was on the market for awhile this time they have great games lined up and I'm sure there will be plenty more in the future, if you ask me the hardware advantage only mattered to the early adopters

 

[ralexand]

That's really impressive if they are producing games like MGS4 on hardware 10 times slower. No wonder Kojima said that he could do the game on the 360. [/sarcasm]

 

[dukmahsik]

That's really impressive if they are producing games like MGS4 on hardware 10 times slower. No wonder Kojima said that he could do the game on the 360. [/sarcasm]

 

[mckmas8808]

I agree with Qroach. It's safe to say that the PS3 will not have as high a marketshare as the PS2 had. MS is sure to make gains this time around. Right now the market is roughly:

PS2 - 100 mil
Xbox - 25 mil
Cube - 25 mil

It won't surprise me to see 50 mil unit growth by 2011 to 200 mil with a breakdown something like this:

PS3 - 100 mil
X360 - 60 mil
Rev - 40 mil

IMO this is reasonable, but 200 mil for PS3 in 5 years with much better competition and more expensive hardware is a pipe-dream.

Sure so for SOME ODD reason everybody will benefit from next gen while only Sony will stay the same.

How do you come to this conclusion? Why is it that Sony is the only hardware company that stays the same?

 

[dskneo]

IMO this is reasonable, but 200 mil for PS3 in 5 years with much better competition and more expensive hardware is a pipe-dream.

lol
what much better competition? Last generation competition was Way way harder!

weak ps2 against 2 brute force consoles... how harder does it get?

this time around ps3 as hardware at least on par with x360 and a weaker nintendo...
i dont seem "much better" competition this time around.

 

[mckmas8808]

they have better games this time around the xbox didn't get any good games untill it was on the market for awhile this time they have great games lined up and I'm sure there will be plenty more in the future, if you ask me the hardware advantage only mattered to the early adopters

So you have seen the PS3 games? Wow tell me what they are like.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

So you have seen the PS3 games? Wow tell me what they are like.

Heh...the irony of that statement.

 

[Edge]

Sure so for SOME ODD reason everybody will benefit from next gen while only Sony will stay the same.

How do you come to this conclusion? Why is it that Sony is the only hardware company that stays the same?

I know, it's upsurd. Sony had a severe performance dis-advantage this generation, and will have a superior performance advantage this upcoming generation, and that alone will make a difference this generation.

Very good points Vince. I like reading your posts. I think Qroach should show you a bit more respect.

mckmas8808, please note Johnny Awesome is a major Xbox fan, so it's not suprising his comments. He's has been predicting Sony's downfall for years on another forum I used to frequent with him.

 

[Alpha_Spartan]

The word of the day needs to be "hyperbole". "Ten times slower" is nothing more than hyperbole.

Speaking of hyperbole, 200 million consoles in 5 years sounds like hyperbole to me.

 

[pegisys]

So you have seen the PS3 games? Wow tell me what they are like.

I just said the xbox360 would do better than the xbox, because it's going to have better game sooner then the xbox did, and the initial sales of the xbox were by the people who wanted the fastest console not because it had great games, I was not talking about the PS3 at all