"[RSX] ... we're still waiting" - Anon games exec, BusinessWeek article

[Qroach]

do you have any idea how many Labs and how many billion of dollar they put into building it since 2003 to manufacture the ps3 and Cell? i guess not.

I see common sense is out the window.

 

[Megadrive1988]

one can only hope that Nvidia decided to based RSX off of its next generation GPU, the NV50 aka G80 (?) instead of the NV47 aka G70. I am not speculating that this is the case, just wishful thinking on my part.

 

[mckmas8808]

So 200 million in 5 years, would mean 100 million in 2.5 years? I don't think sony is even capable of making that many units in that time, let alone sell them.

It does not mean that AT ALL!! They could do 70 million in 2.5 years another 130 the last 2.5 years.

 

[Edge]

I see PS3 selling 150 million in five years as being more realistic. No doubt the PS3 will sell at a faster rate, and have a higher adoption rate than the PS2, simply because it's going to be starting out at a much stronger position than the original PS2. Plus you are getting much higher added value with the PS3, than the PS2.

To achieve that goal they would have to produce 80,000 consoles a day or 2.4 millon a month. Basically what Sony's factories produce in a month for the PS2 at this time of year.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

You guys seem to ignore that sales of a console aren't linearly distributed through it's lifetime. Early demand is pretty high, but later on, sales will even drop from time to time, like in the summer; and of course they'll rise in the holidays and with price cuts. Keeping an average of a million units sold per month is pretty much impossible...

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

You guys seem to ignore that sales of a console aren't linearly distributed through it's lifetime. Early demand is pretty high, but later on, sales will even drop from time to time, like in the summer; and of course they'll rise in the holidays and with price cuts. Keeping an average of a million units sold per month is pretty much impossible...

Sony manages 200,000+ a month this late in PS2s life so I'd say they could at least reach 150 mill with ps3.

 

[Brimstone]

one can only hope that Nvidia decided to based RSX off of its next generation GPU, the NV50 aka G80 (?) instead of the NV47 aka G70. I am not speculating that this is the case, just wishful thinking on my part.

The way I see it, the longer the delay in RSX being included in final development kits, the more likely it becomes RSX is NV50 and Rambus XDR2 with a 128 bit bus.

 

[Fafalada]

Keeping an average of a million units sold per month is pretty much impossible...

They've kept an average considerably higher then that with PS2 over last 5years.
They only failed to hit more then 1M a month in first year of PS2 (it was just over 10M) and that was with half a year in only one territory.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

D'oh, wanted to type 3 million.
Anyway, I can't see Sony selling PS3s faster than PS2s... Because without comparably fast software sales, the hardware would bankrupt them.

 

[Edge]

Anyway, I can't see Sony selling PS3s faster than PS2s... Because without comparably fast software sales, the hardware would bankrupt them.

I have no doubt Sony makes a good profit off of PS2 sales, as the PS2 is not cheap at all, and Sony was under no pressure this holiday season to lower the price of the PS2. Even greater sales with the PS3, will lead to greater cost reduction, and if demand is sky high, Sony can afford to sell the units later in it's life at quite a comfortable profit also.

 

[Barbarian]

I dont see how. If that was the plan for Sony back then, It still has a high chance of being Sony's plan now. If if that is so... then Kb-Smoker was correct when saying "the final dev kits were going out this month."
It's all we have to go by, so it is more relevant than you think.

Let's just say that in the office last week we got 3 spanking new PS3 devkits and even though they have the final spec Cell (3.2Ghz) the graphics card is still "Type C" = 7 series 512mb VRAM on PCIe and hence still has the above mentioned CPU-GPU bandwidth restriction.
This definitely does not look like a final dev kit and we are the end of December already.

 

[mckmas8808]

Anyway, I can't see Sony selling PS3s faster than PS2s... Because without comparably fast software sales, the hardware would bankrupt them.

Sony has Blu-ray this time. This time their profit (there's better word for this) off of BDs will be higher than they were with DVDs. And throw in the fact that they should have a better online system with downloadable content, more HDD will be bought for the PS3 than the PS2, and Pro Duo cards cost more than the old PS2 memory cards.

Add all of that stuff togetther and you get better software sales for the PS3 than they have for the PS2. Keeping in mind they sell the same amount of videogame software.

 

[Fafalada]

This definitely does not look like a final dev kit and we are the end of December already.

Doesn't mean RSX kits don't exist though - you know these things are usually scarce at first.

 

[wco81]

Doesn't mean RSX kits don't exist though - you know these things are usually scarce at first.

If the RSX doesn't exist could that suggest it's a lot more than a G70, which has been out for about 6 months?

Hmm, so the final Cell is 3.2Ghz after all, not a higher clock as some have speculated.

 

[Bad_Boy]

Let's just say that in the office last week we got 3 spanking new PS3 devkits and even though they have the final spec Cell (3.2Ghz) the graphics card is still "Type C" = 7 series 512mb VRAM on PCIe and hence still has the above mentioned CPU-GPU bandwidth restriction.
This definitely does not look like a final dev kit and we are the end of December already.

That can't be good. If you can say, how does it compare to the spring time dev kits?
And if you dont mind me asking, which studio do you work for?

 

[Farid]

Thread pruned from OT posts

Keep on topic, folks.

Reply just to contribute to the topic of the thread.
And with something else other than noise, if possible.

 

[Titanio]

That can't be good.

Well, it can. It could be good or bad depending on the circumstances.

I have a hard time thinking it's likely that nVidia and Sony are having a difficult time taking a vanilla 7800 GTX down to 90nm..

It's hard to tell what the possibilities even are, without knowing if Barbarian's experience is universal or not. It's possible, for example, that RSX is in some kits, but not in others because of a delay in ramping up.

 

[Synergy34]

What has been past console experiences with getting devs kit with full spec? If i remember correctly final 360 kits didn't show up until Sept? PS3 is looking like a May release most likely. Heck they said Spring, could be end of June if Sony wanted it to be then.

problem is, what is the RSX hold up? It is good or bad?

 

[Qroach]

It does not mean that AT ALL!! They could do 70 million in 2.5 years another 130 the last 2.5 years.

whatever... it's not going to happen. If PS3 is more expensive to release compared to PS2, I don't see how sony could reach the same numbers they currently have. That would just mean sales would start off slower.

 

[Vince]

whatever... it's not going to happen. If PS3 is more expensive to release compared to PS2, I don't see how sony could reach the same numbers they currently have. That would just mean sales would start off slower.

So you assume that during the launch period, sales will be bounded not by supply, but by consumer demand? Of course, such a dynamic didn't exist with the X360's excessive cost in relation to the PlayStation2 in the United States, time invarient of course.

Yet, you posit this for PlayStation3, why am I not surprised? And it's easy to see how PlayStation3 will see the same sales PS2 did; the situation for Sony is perhaps more advantageous now than in 1999. They're launching with a much larger hardware advantage than vis-a-vis PS2|DC that runs from their processing capability to their vastly more capable media support that adopts all open standards from the huge effect of having Blu-Ray support, to HMDI1.2/1080p and Bluetooth, 802.11 to CF/SD/MS. Their competitor is off to another shitty start in Japan, from what I've heard initial 2-day sales are less than Xbox1; and their competitor's launch has been plagued by bad media, somewhat blah games and asinine shortages which didn't haunt the DC. And we'll wait for later when they show all the nifty media features they have that their competitors don't, such as location-free IP-TV. And Sony's manufacturing ability is vastly better than the early 2000 disaster that plagued Nagasaki coming online and producing the Graphic Synthesizer.

But, I suppose this is to be expected every 5 or so years, kinda like the locusts; just as *some* (cough) thought that the XBox1 would have an effect on PS2 sales in relation to PS1. Yet, instead the PlayStation2's sales are tracking 3.75 years ahead of the PlayStation1's curve, while still at $150. 200M over the 10year lifetime of the PlayStation platform isn't out of the question. Things that make you go, 'Hmmm..."

PS. Think you can get rid of my out-of-context quote or do you still get off on it?