"[RSX] ... we're still waiting" - Anon games exec, BusinessWeek article

So you assume that during the launch period, sales will be bounded not by supply, but by consumer demand? Of course, such a dynamic didn't exist with the X360's excessive cost in relation to the PlayStation2 in the United States, time invarient of course.

Xbox 360 released at the SAME price the Xbox and PS2 released at. I'm expecting PS3 to release at a price above that, which will intially make sales start off slower comapred to PS2. However long that time frame is, I really don't know. That's the point I'm making Vince, don't jump to conclusions.

But, I suppose this is to be expected every 5 or so years, kinda like the locusts; just as *some* (cough) thought that the XBox1 would have an effect on PS2 sales in relation to PS1.

...and who was this? if your implying that "I" thought that, well you are 100% wrong again. I never made any predictions of xbox cutting into PS2 sales. Ever.

PS. Think you can get rid of my out-of-context quote or do you still get off on it?
"out of context" my ass. Completely contradictory is more like it.
 
Qroach said:
Xbox 360 released at the SAME price the Xbox and PS2 released at.

XBox360 at BestBuy: $399 Same Price? I think not, unless you're talking about the hacked apart Core System which doesn't even come with a wireless controller and has standard AV connectors. So much for the HD revolution...

And Q, I'm a little confused, how much in addition would the accessories cost to give the X360 the same functionality as the PlayStation3, say, 802.11x? Blu-Ray/HD-DVD?

Qroach said:
I'm expecting PS3 to release at a price above that, which will intially make sales start off slower comapred to PS2. However long that time frame is, I really don't know. That's the point I'm making Vince, don't jump to conclusions.

I'm not, what I am doing is thinking. And it's occured to me how ignorant your post is of the market dynamics of a console launch; ironically, the things you're suppose to be good at.

I restate, do you honestly believe that the availability of the PlayStation3 during the launch window will be bounded by demand side factors, such as cost? That is utterly ridiculous, it's allways bounded by supply; as recently seen in the $800 eBay actions for X360s.

Qroach said:
"out of context" my ass. Completely contradictory is more like it.

Pull up the post then. You're just instigating trouble and doing it by unethical means; but nothing will be done... Dave... QED.
 
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I think something being ignored and is at the core here is that if we assume that the SUPPLY would be there for Sony to sell X number of units, that the market needs to expand here, not just the supply.

Lets say this generation that 80% of people that would buy a console, own at least PS2. Do we think, even if this market share remains the same, that the size of the market will double? I could see if there was room for Sony to gain marketshare this gen but there really isnt. So for them to double PS3 sales they basically have to more than double the size of the market itself. I know Allard has been focused on this as has nintendo with their controller but even with all this, it just doesnt seem likely this time around that twice as many people are now buying consoles this gen than last.
 
expletive said:
So for them to double PS3 sales they basically have to more than double the size of the market itself.

No they don't; that view is too simplistic. The PS2 is 3.75 years ahead of the PS1 in reaching 100 Million. It's at 100M in under 5 years. The PlayStation2's (sales) data points, when applied to the sales curve of the PlayStation1 show that even when neglecting the price differential (in the PSOne's favor), one can state with a high degree of probability that there is atleast another 30% of sales to come, indicating a 30% userbase expansion platform-over-platform.

What should be noted is that when you factor in the time differential (eg. sales rate), the PlayStation2 is selling faster that the PlayStation1 at a comparable point in it's life at a higher relative cost ($99 V $150). The PlayStation2's tail will be elongated and lead one to predict with some certainty that the expansion will end-up at 40-50% increase. Next, the jump from 150 to 200 isn't double. With the European Markets so strong for PlayStation and it's recent push into PAL territories such as Iran and India, there is tremendous growth potential in expanding the PS2 and PS3 userbase over their 10 year lifetimes.

Also, with Blu-Ray support, the PlayStation3 becomes a subsidized BD-ROM player which could potentially expand the userbase into those segments of the population. Which is still a net gain for Sony as they're a media company.
 
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Barbarian said:
Let's just say that in the office last week we got 3 spanking new PS3 devkits and even though they have the final spec Cell (3.2Ghz) the graphics card is still "Type C" = 7 series 512mb VRAM on PCIe and hence still has the above mentioned CPU-GPU bandwidth restriction.
This definitely does not look like a final dev kit and we are the end of December already.

Maybe you'll find the final devkits under the christmas tree? December isn't over yet.
 
Barbarian said:
Let's just say that in the office last week we got 3 spanking new PS3 devkits and even though they have the final spec Cell (3.2Ghz) the graphics card is still "Type C" = 7 series 512mb VRAM on PCIe and hence still has the above mentioned CPU-GPU bandwidth restriction.
This definitely does not look like a final dev kit and we are the end of December already.

What does it means "type C"?

Is Geforce 7800GTX512 (550MHz core + 512MB GDDR3)?

What they would be "type" "A" (geforce 6800UE SLI?) the and "B" ( = Geforce 7800GTX /430MHz Core+512MB GDDR3)?
 
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Ha! That could explain why you can't buy a 7800GTX 512MB, because they're all going into dev kits.

Jawed
 
Vince said:
No they don't; that view is too simplistic. The PS2 is 3.75 years ahead of the PS1 in reaching 100 Million. It's at 100M in under 5 years. The PlayStation2's (sales) data points, when applied to the sales curve of the PlayStation1 show that even when neglecting the price differential (in the PSOne's favor), one can state with a high degree of probability that there is atleast another 30% of sales to come, indicating a 30% userbase expansion platform-over-platform.

What should be noted is that when you factor in the time differential (eg. sales rate), the PlayStation2 is selling faster that the PlayStation1 at a comparable point in it's life at a higher relative cost ($99 V $150). The PlayStation2's tail will be elongated and lead one to predict with some certainty that the expansion will end-up at 40-50% increase. Next, the jump from 150 to 200 isn't double. With the European Markets so strong for PlayStation and it's recent push into PAL territories such as Iran and India, there is tremendous growth potential in expanding the PS2 and PS3 userbase over their 10 year lifetimes.

Also, with Blu-Ray support, the PlayStation3 becomes a subsidized BD-ROM player which could potentially expand the userbase into those segments of the population. Which is still a net gain for Sony as they're a media company.

Regardless of how quickly the PS2 sold relative to PS1, all that means is that youre reaching a market saturation quicker, it doesnt mean that theres an unlimited amount of people that will continue to enter the market indefinitely.

Blu ray support doesnt give the PS3 any advantage over its predecessor in terms of sales. The PS2 had DVD built in which was a market ready to explode. This time around there is a lot more uncertainty with an HD optical format (i.e. format war, HDTV proliferation, digital delivery, etc)
 
expletive said:
Regardless of how quickly the PS2 sold relative to PS1, all that means is that youre reaching a market saturation quicker, it doesnt mean that theres an unlimited amount of people that will continue to enter the market indefinitely.

There is also the possibility of Sonys share of the market decreasing due to competition...
 
Industry trends seem to indicate that both European and US markets are both growing strongly while the Japanese market appears to be shifting from consoles to portable/mobile devices. At the same time people are ignoring the growing markets in Asia and South America.

IMO I don’t think we are anywhere near saturation point.

PS2 could likely sell 120m+. The same old arguments about Sony being unable to match the PS1’s success were around at PS2’s launch – but they’ve done even better.

PS3 could end up losing some market share but could still end up selling ~ 150m units.
 
avaya said:
PS3 could end up losing some market share but could still end up selling ~ 150m units.

Agreed, but to sell 200 million you would have to increase this estimate by 33%... 200 million is a LOT.
 
Global

expletive said:
Agreed, but to sell 200 million you would have to increase this estimate by 33%... 200 million is a LOT.

With growing china and india middle-class and other changes in world economy, I think 200M is possible. Also because of growing console market, all consoles have good chance for more sales than before.
 
Humm.........

PS3: 24-26 Million in America by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 20-21 Million in America by 2011-2012
Revolution: 13-15 Million in America by 2011-2012

PS3: 21 Million in Japan by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 3-5 Million in Japan by 2011-2012
Revolution: 14-15 Million in Japan by 2011-2012

PS3: 15 Million in other Asian territories 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 2 Million in other Asian territories 2011-2012
Revolution: 11 Million in other Asian territories 2011-2012

PS3: 21-24 Million in Europe by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 14-17 Million in Europe by 2011-2012
Revolution: 12-14 Million in Europe by 2011-2012

PS3: 15-16 Million in other European territories by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 8 Million in other European territories by 2011-2012
Revolution: 6-8 Million in other European territories by 2011-2012

PS3: 3-4 Million in other MISC territories by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 1-2 Million in other MISC territories by 2011-2012
Revolution: 1-2 Million in other MISC territories by 2011-2012

World Wide Total (Using the highest figure):
PS3: 106 Million units World Wide by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 55 Million units World Wide by 2011-2012
Revolution: 65 Million units World Wide by 2011-2012
 
Vince said:
XBox360 at BestBuy: $399 Same Price? I think not, unless you're talking about the hacked apart Core System which doesn't even come with a wireless controller and has standard AV connectors. So much for the HD revolution...

Um what are you trying to prove?? Like I said it launched with a price tag the same as the original xbox. if you want to dismiss that, go right ahead,the point you're making is still incorrect. I guess with your reasoning, you consider the PS3 "hacked apart" as well since a HD will also be an optional buy? No of course not, you can just buy a memory card - or wait, you can do the same on the core 360. Comments like yours above, are blately single minded, annoying, unwanted, and inflamatory.

And Q, I'm a little confused, how much in addition would the accessories cost to give the X360 the same functionality as the PlayStation3, say, 802.11x? Blu-Ray/HD-DVD?

Honestly, this is another fanb0y-ish remark. If you want to talk about accesories, how about "how much would it cost to add a hard drive to the PS3?"? What would be the price of the console at that point? I don't give a crap about Blueray. I don't see how that is going to help PS3 sales when blue ray adoption (outside of games) is limited by HDTV adoption rates. It certainly won't help sony reach 200 million units in 5 years. or do you expect 200 million HDTV's to sell during that time? a year after PS3 is on teh market, I bet we see better and faster dedicated bluray players on the market for a comparable price. Wireless is nice but not necessary. Anyway you're purposely trying to take this thread off topic for some unknown reason.

I'm not, what I am doing is thinking. And it's occured to me how ignorant your post is of the market dynamics of a console launch; ironically, the things you're suppose to be good at.

Sure vince, and we all trust your opinion of the market. My opinion is "ignorant"? wow, a personal attack form vince, oh that never happens... It really means a lot coming from you. No I'm only kidding, it don't mean jack, and I'll ignore that.


I restate, do you honestly believe that the availability of the PlayStation3 during the launch window will be bounded by demand side factors, such as cost? That is utterly ridiculous, it's allways bounded by supply; as recently seen in the $800 eBay actions for X360s.

Yes, to be honest I do. I think the price if higher than the Xbox 360 price tag it will move slow enough to make reaching 200 million units (in five year) NOT a reality. you do remember the topic of this thread right?

Pull up the post then. You're just instigating trouble and doing it by unethical means; but nothing will be done... Dave... QED.

Seriously WTF is your problem? I'm not even using that quote anymore (it's turned off in my posts), so i really don't see what you're trying to "instigate" by even bringing that into this discussion. I remember the context for which you posted your remark, and I don't need to prove anything to you. If YOU don't like it, take this nonsense offline and pull up the damn post yourself. I really love this, you come into a thread, start throwing insults and accusations, act like a complete ass, and then you're calling me "unethical" and say I'm the one "instigating"? You must be crazy or something. This board was better when you were banned or whatever. you don't want to see my posts, use the bloddy ignore feature.
 
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PS2 Estimate

Nerve-Damage said:
PS3: 24-26 Million in America by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 20-21 Million in America by 2011-2012
Revolution: 13-15 Million in America by 2011-2012

PS3: 21 Million in Japan by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 3-5 Million in Japan by 2011-2012
Revolution: 14-15 Million in Japan by 2011-2012

PS3: 15 Million in other Asian territories 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 2 Million in other Asian territories 2011-2012
Revolution: 11 Million in other Asian territories 2011-2012

PS3: 21-24 Million in Europe by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 14-17 Million in Europe by 2011-2012
Revolution: 12-14 Million in Europe by 2011-2012

PS3: 15-16 Million in other European territories by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 8 Million in other European territories by 2011-2012
Revolution: 6-8 Million in other European territories by 2011-2012

PS3: 3-4 Million in other MISC territories by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 1-2 Million in other MISC territories by 2011-2012
Revolution: 1-2 Million in other MISC territories by 2011-2012

World Wide Total (Using the highest figure):
PS3: 106 Million units World Wide by 2011-2012
Xbox 360: 55 Million units World Wide by 2011-2012
Revolution: 65 Million units World Wide by 2011-2012


What was estimate when PS2 was released? 50M. Now it is 100M and maybe many more before production is finished.
 
ihamoitc2005 said:
With growing china and india middle-class and other changes in world economy, I think 200M is possible. Also because of growing console market, all consoles have good chance for more sales than before.

yep . china's middle class alone is about 200-250 millions peoples.
 
200 million in 5 years is crazy talk. PS2's managed half that and PS3 is going to face stiffer competition. The only way they'll manage 200 million in five years is if one of the following applies :

1) They release it very cheap to India and China as well as the rest of the world
2) Sony add very desirable non-gaming features so those not interested in gaming, those hundreds of millions who haven;t bought PS2, buy PS3
3) PS3 breaks down frequently and Sony sell at least two consoles to every customer
 
I can see lots of people buying next gen console here provided they are marketed (well) and most importantly game title prices are lowered (for markets like India/China).
 
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