Robbie Bach says this generation will last longer

[liolio]

Well, I think Ubisoft is headed in a good direction, but I don't know if hiring people is going to seriously be necessary.

I think the next generation of consoles is going to be considerably 'weaker' than people are anticipating. At this point, the focus of the console hardware race should be entirely on CPU and Memory, IMO. I think we'll see some architecture similar to what we already have available, only in a more powerful (slightly) capacity.

I don't think we'll see the leap we've seen from last generatino to this generation.

Well I think that system will be weaker than what could have been made but 2012 scream 32nm which will allow for bunch of transistors even if manufacturers use tinier chip than their equivalents this gen.
I think next gen will deliver great performances.

 

[BadTB25]

Can either company really run the risk of being seen as significantly weaker on the hardware front?

Nintendo is probably the only company that can go that route and still have a very high install base.

 

[obonicus]

Can either company really run the risk of being seen as significantly weaker on the hardware front?

Nintendo is probably the only company that can go that route and still have a very high install base.

It depends. Do you think the current state of things (with devs' serious efforts on the 'high-end' consoles) will continue to the next generation? If third parties decide to bet on Nintendo like they bet on Sony this gen, then whatever extra power they have over Nintendo's hardware will be wasted.

 

[liolio]

My response would be yes but I think we are going out of thread
Better discuss this in the tech section "next gen systems etc."

I think that both 360 and the ps3 can live till 2012 especially as persons would will buy the systems for cheap might very well not be that demanding in regard to performances.
But I think that by 2012 most hardcore gamers will be literally starving for something new. At least such a late launch make sure that we won't be offered "2x" systems.
But 2012... damned it's a long time from now... I'm unlikely to buy at release (/affordable price 300 euros +/-50)... it will be long...

 

[RobertR1]

Agreed, next gen graphics are going to start to approach such a level that few people will care about further advances

That's assuming either MS or Sony go after the high end instead of doing the Nintendo approach. I hope atleast one of them do.

 

[Nano]

Can either company really run the risk of being seen as significantly weaker on the hardware front?

Nintendo is probably the only company that can go that route and still have a very high install base.

Dare I say, graphics may reach some level of 'saturation point' in time, this does not negate moore's law, but suggests consumer's expectations may change (i.e. how much they care). Nintendo (or more specifically Iwata) called it too early for this generation in my opinion, but next generation as long as the majority of effects & technologies that we expect from 2012 type hardware are possible, I don't think it will matter as much whether your system is THE most powerful or not, as long as its producing these visuals that rival pre-rendered cinematics. I don't think MS or Sony could risk having an PS2/Gamecube/Xbox like gap between them however or it would make the h/w look too inferior, somehow I really don't see that happening again considering the likelihood consoles will be released within similar time scales.

 

[PARANOiA]

That's assuming either MS or Sony go after the high end instead of doing the Nintendo approach. I hope atleast one of them do.

Oh of course that will happen - has to happen, really. There's no point in saying "Nintendo went after another market, let's jump on that one since it's big". They'll just end up directly competing in another segment and lose their current market.

 

[eastmen]

...right, until Sony releas's a new system after the PS3 that is [hopefully] backwards compatible with a low price point.

I can ensure you that if Sony releases a new Playstation bundled with a camera, and some advanced motion sensing stuff (similar to what they have shown in tech demo's on the PS Blog and in patents) they will most certainly pose a serious threat to Microsoft unless Microsoft makes some big changes in the way they approach gaming.

As much as you may crave another upgrade, the companies that do minimal upgrades will be the ones that will be most successful next generation.

Obviously motion sensing technology was the big thing this generation that brought people in, and next generation it's going to be the combination of motion sensing and video. A controller and camera that can detect motion and general position together will over that next level of interactivity (as well as simplicity). The biggest hurdle will be accuracy.

That said, Sony has been working with both for some time, and I think it will be pretty easy for them next generation. I entirely predict a low spec PS4 to be slightly more powerful than the PS3 (basically a beefed up PS3) with a bundled HD camera and a new controller type (possibly the breakaway controller we've all seen).

But to say if MS get's a "headstart" on them, that they can cause Sony to never gain a foothold again? That's really really...ridiculous.

IF ms does it right it could go like this

ps3 2009 - $300
ps3 2010- $250
ps3 2011 $200 xbox next $300/$400 xbox 360 $100

It can certianly hurt sony alot.

Also if as you predict and the ps4 is a low spec system only slightly more powerfull and the xbox next is a large upgrade the xbox next can launch first with more of a grpahical punch. I don't see why the companys that do a minimal upgrade will win out. This generation nintendo got lucky , it doesn't mean that next generation if everyone goes with a small leap there will be a break away console. MS could actually get a year head start and the graphical advantage if your correct in what oyu think sony will do. It may not win the console war but i'm sure that the core gamer will flock to the system early on .

 

[Rangers]

...right, until Sony releas's a new system after the PS3 that is [hopefully] backwards compatible with a low price point.

I can ensure you that if Sony releases a new Playstation bundled with a camera, and some advanced motion sensing stuff (similar to what they have shown in tech demo's on the PS Blog and in patents) they will most certainly pose a serious threat to Microsoft unless Microsoft makes some big changes in the way they approach gaming.

As much as you may crave another upgrade, the companies that do minimal upgrades will be the ones that will be most successful next generation.

Obviously motion sensing technology was the big thing this generation that brought people in, and next generation it's going to be the combination of motion sensing and video. A controller and camera that can detect motion and general position together will over that next level of interactivity (as well as simplicity). The biggest hurdle will be accuracy.

That said, Sony has been working with both for some time, and I think it will be pretty easy for them next generation. I entirely predict a low spec PS4 to be slightly more powerful than the PS3 (basically a beefed up PS3) with a bundled HD camera and a new controller type (possibly the breakaway controller we've all seen).

But to say if MS get's a "headstart" on them, that they can cause Sony to never gain a foothold again? That's really really...ridiculous.

I think you're totally mistaken, because like so many do I think you're not understanding the two markets. The two markets are hardcore, and casual. Wii the latter, PS360 the former.

Hardcore is a huge market, it made videogames a gigantic business and sold 140 million PS2's before the Wii came along, even today the software and hardware split if you add Ps3 and 360 together versus Wii is close to 50-50, not Wii domination. Lets look at vgchartz, we all know their numbers are suspect, but for overall WW sales theyll closely track reported shipping, and they currently have Wii 46m, 360 28m, and PS3 20m. So theoretically there are slightly more hi-def hardcore consoles in the world than there are Wii's (granted that the Wii has been supply constrained in several territories).

Anyways, graphics are very important to the hardcore gamer crowd. And any company that wishes to target that market ignores graphics at their own peril. If they wish to cede that market, fine, but that market isnt going away, probably ever, and somebody will tap it.

I have my doubts that Sony or Ms could succeed in the Wii's market. There was an interview I read with some MS figure, probably Bach, and he laid it out, they dont have the IP to do what Nntendo does. They have Halo, they dont have Mario. I dont see that having changed since then.

Like I say, if MS or Sony wants to try to do what Nintendo is doing, I suspect a big flop is in the offing. At the very least even if they did succeed, like Wii is currently, they'll be irrelevant to me. Wii can sell a trillion and it just doesnt matter to me.

That is why I think for example, Sony is exactly right when they say Wii isnt competition to them (and MS has made similar statements as well I'm sure). People want to laugh and hurr hurr, but they get it. 360 is their competition, not Wii. We on forums seem to intuitively understand this of course, the big "rivalry" is between Ps3 and 360. And of course on forums, we are the (relatively) young, the male, the hardcore.

 

[obonicus]

Oh of course that will happen - has to happen, really. There's no point in saying "Nintendo went after another market, let's jump on that one since it's big". They'll just end up directly competing in another segment and lose their current market.

Unless there's effectively only one market, like there was with the PS2. This split market doesn't help anybody.

 

[Arwin]

I disagree there are two markets. There's one big market. There's a tonne of different factors that determine who in that market buys what machine.

That is why I think for example, Sony is exactly right when they say Wii isnt competition to them (and MS has made similar statements as well I'm sure). People want to laugh and hurr hurr, but they get it. 360 is their competition, not Wii. We on forums seem to intuitively understand this of course, the big "rivalry" is between Ps3 and 360. And of course on forums, we are the (relatively) young, the male, the hardcore.

But actually I think this is false. The Wii is definitely taking away the PS3s market. But we can't know a 100% certain how much until the PS3 also reaches the equivalent price point. At this point in time, I think the Wii is probably even more taking away from the PS2s market than the PS3s. The 360 is also eating away from the PS3s market.

Of course both the Wii and the 360 are also expanding the market - the 360 I think not as much as the Wii partly at the cost of PC, partly expanding to media consumers. The Wii however definitely is selling consoles to families that previously only owned handhelds (Nintendo also) or no consoles at all, but also to a much older generation who never gamed before (as did the DS).

The PS2 was a big success precisely because it could address almost the entire market with just one machine. As the market gets bigger, this is going to be increasingly difficult. Already during the PS2 era, in the U.S. the Xbox was taking away part of the crowd over time mostly thanks to Live. The Wii is reaching out to kids long before the PS3 hits that price point and form factor (right now it looks and feels way too high-end for parents to feel its suitable to be put unsupervised into the kids room on the SDtv). It could still get there, but it will have to cost less than 299 first, look less expensive probably also, and have a better image in terms of games that represent known quantities.

 

[BadTB25]

I'd have to agree with Rangers assessment about 2 markets, the HD hardcore and the casuals. There are gamers that are tweeners that will play in both those markets, but I think in large part, the hardcore is invested in the PS3 and X360. The casuals in the Wii and in a small part the X360, that is where I think the Arcade family oriented bundles come into play.

The problem with the PS3 is its inherently hardcore. Even LBP, although casual friendly appearing, is somewhat hardcore on the gameplay and creation side. They are trying to make in roads, but those games are primarily PSN titles, that arguably is not well advertised in the XMB. On NXE, its very apparent whenever a new release Arcade friendly game that may appeal to the casuals are released.

The hardcore are willing to pay a premium for their consoles, the casuals will not. The PS3 needs a price drop ASAP to attract these gamers as I think they've got a large chunk of those gamers willing to jump in at the current price point. Additionally, they need to figure out a way to advertise their unique titles that appear to the masses. About the only way I hear about anything new on PSN is through these forums or Neogaf. The little feed on the XMB is hardly ever noticed.

I think based on the economy that this generation will last at least until 2011. As others have already pointed out, neither MS, Nintendo or Sony is any hurry. Nintendo is making money hands over fist, MS is leading its Sony rival in both sales and revenue, and Sony needs to recover it R&D investment and cost.

 

[Acert93]

That's assuming either MS or Sony go after the high end instead of doing the Nintendo approach. I hope atleast one of them do.

People tend to forget there are almost 50M HD consoles on the market and that these consumers buy a lot of games, peripherals, and services.

Lets says MS and Sony are some random company names.

Lets say Company A goes the Wii route ad Company B targets the $300/400 split with an equal investment in hardware as this gen they gain that entire market for themselves. This will mean a lot more momentum and mindshare due to the market situation. I know people are concerned with game dev costs but one thing to consider is a game like Gears of War 2 has sections in maps with 200M poly source assets. It wouldn't seem like they are going to need 2B poly source assets for the same scene next gen.

The thing with the Wii is also only Nintendo can really do it--neither company has the software or reputation to pull it off. They need to tread their own path.

Actually, Nintendo may have their own hurdle selling the Wii2. HD isn't going to be a big enough selling poin. They need games/input that justify ditching the Wii. And we all know MS and Sony wil have their own motion stuff to compete so like every other gen the slate starts clean.

 

[eastmen]

I'd have to agree with Rangers assessment about 2 markets, the HD hardcore and the casuals. There are gamers that are tweeners that will play in both those markets, but I think in large part, the hardcore is invested in the PS3 and X360. The casuals in the Wii and in a small part the X360, that is where I think the Arcade family oriented bundles come into play.

The problem with the PS3 is its inherently hardcore. Even LBP, although casual friendly appearing, is somewhat hardcore on the gameplay and creation side. They are trying to make in roads, but those games are primarily PSN titles, that arguably is not well advertised in the XMB. On NXE, its very apparent whenever a new release Arcade friendly game that may appeal to the casuals are released.

The hardcore are willing to pay a premium for their consoles, the casuals will not. The PS3 needs a price drop ASAP to attract these gamers as I think they've got a large chunk of those gamers willing to jump in at the current price point. Additionally, they need to figure out a way to advertise their unique titles that appear to the masses. About the only way I hear about anything new on PSN is through these forums or Neogaf. The little feed on the XMB is hardly ever noticed.

I think based on the economy that this generation will last at least until 2011. As others have already pointed out, neither MS, Nintendo or Sony is any hurry. Nintendo is making money hands over fist, MS is leading its Sony rival in both sales and revenue, and Sony needs to recover it R&D investment and cost.

Sony droping price wont help if it doesn't have titles to apeal to those gamers. It seems to me that ms has more titles that target outside the hardcore and while none of them are really system sellers it opens the system up for more people ot buy them , those hardcore gamers that now have familys and need games that little johny can play. Right now sony's first/second party devs are really pushing hardcore games. They need to start supporting them in equal measure.

People tend to forget there are almost 50M HD consoles on the market and that these consumers buy a lot of games, peripherals, and services.

Lets says MS and Sony are some random company names.

Lets say Company A goes the Wii route ad Company B targets the $300/400 split with an equal investment in hardware as this gen they gain that entire market for themselves. This will mean a lot more momentum and mindshare due to the market situation. I know people are concerned with game dev costs but one thing to consider is a game like Gears of War 2 has sections in maps with 200M poly source assets. It wouldn't seem like they are going to need 2B poly source assets for the same scene next gen.

The thing with the Wii is also only Nintendo can really do it--neither company has the software or reputation to pull it off. They need to tread their own path.

Actually, Nintendo may have their own hurdle selling the Wii2. HD isn't going to be a big enough selling poin. They need games/input that justify ditching the Wii. And we all know MS and Sony wil have their own motion stuff to compete so like every other gen the slate starts clean.

Exactly , MS hit gold with the hardcore gamers they got at the start of this gen , they have some of the highest attach ratios ever seen. If ms waits to long this gen sony will start to catch up with them in user base , but a 2011 time frame for ms would be perfect , thats 6 years for them and the 360 can still exist. a $300-$400 console that perhaps doesn't loose as much per console as the original 360 can move quite a few units esp if they arne't as supply constraint as they were this gen. The core gamers will feel the generation is over due and if MS can launch with high profile titles (another elder scrolls , another gears ) they can get alot of attention and as i said in another post they could really get a squeeze on sony price wise.

 

[tha_con]

Sony droping price wont help if it doesn't have titles to apeal to those gamers. It seems to me that ms has more titles that target outside the hardcore and while none of them are really system sellers it opens the system up for more people ot buy them , those hardcore gamers that now have familys and need games that little johny can play. Right now sony's first/second party devs are really pushing hardcore games. They need to start supporting them in equal measure.




Exactly , MS hit gold with the hardcore gamers they got at the start of this gen , they have some of the highest attach ratios ever seen. If ms waits to long this gen sony will start to catch up with them in user base , but a 2011 time frame for ms would be perfect , thats 6 years for them and the 360 can still exist. a $300-$400 console that perhaps doesn't loose as much per console as the original 360 can move quite a few units esp if they arne't as supply constraint as they were this gen. The core gamers will feel the generation is over due and if MS can launch with high profile titles (another elder scrolls , another gears ) they can get alot of attention and as i said in another post they could really get a squeeze on sony price wise.

I politely disagree on both points.

First, Sony must cater to 'hardcore' (really? Since when is a shooter hardcore? shooters are the new casual games for teens dude). That is their demographic right now. Folks who own PS3's aren't folks looking for Petz games or Pokemon. They're looking for someone to shoot, something to blow up, something to kill. Sony makes money on software, and if they want to sell it, they have to appeal to that group of individuals. The reason those "casual" titles are PSN titles is because they are low risk low cost, and can still bring in a few dollars.

Second, even if MS pushes out a new console in 2011, if it's $300-$400, it won't sell well. Not if Nintendo and Sony are selling significantly cheapter consoles, and the 360 is still on the market.

Even right now, the 360 isn't "selling" well, by comparison to older-gen consoles like the PS1/PS2. I can see this becoming more of a problem next generation if they once again go for the multi-sku multi-demographic business model.

If MS wants to win big, they'll keep the specs and price down, and run out of the gate with a new breed of "casual" (I prefer the term accessible) games, and maybe on of their "core" games like Gears of War (provided they continue to buy publishing rights, as Epic may see fit to make more money across multiple platforms in the future).

 

[RudeCurve]

$300 is the magic pricepoint IMO. If X720 is launched in 2011, costs $300, backwards compatible and at least two times as powerful as X360 and have Halo 4/5 ready, I think it would do quite well.

 

[Nano]

There is no doubt that a price drop will help. When PS3 was launched, Sony priced themselves out of the market. Now, a similar console can still be bought on average £100 cheaper and even for as little as half the price. Even hardcore gamers have a certain price they are prepared to pay for things. Its been well over a year since PS3 was launched and its price (after a £125 drop) is on par with the original Xbox at launch, which is as astronomical now as it was then.

Problem is, Sony can't be expected to compete as easily on price considering the other consoles are cheaper to manufacture and are already producing profits. As a sum of all parts, PS3 has just about everything, and arguably the highest number of big platform exclusives for the near future, yet price is the true feature here.

 

[Acert93]

$300 is the magic pricepoint IMO. If X720 is launched in 2011, costs $300, backwards compatible and at least two times as powerful as X360 and have Halo 4/5 ready, I think it would do quite well.

If the goal was an aggressive price point and a pathetic 2x performance increase they could launch under $200.

Same question I posed earlier: Why would anyone even WANT that console?

From a consumer perspective you are shelling out $300 for essentially the same hardware with software that would look nearly identical to your current library.

From a publisher perspective you are supporting an install base that is much smaller than the released Xbox AND the hardware allows very little differentiation.

From MS's standpoint BC would rip into profits--especially if the game offer little distinction in quality--and would have little to differentiate the products and to move customers over.

People have to have a reason to shell out $300 for a "box." What I see mimicked in a lot of posts is the lemming mentality: copy the last gen leader. The problem is the Wii is doing what it is doing because it DIDN'T follow the PS2. Each generation poses its own challenges. Obviously Nintendo hit a nerve with the casual market (re: parents buy a huge percentage of consoles) with their marketing, family friendly gaming, and importantly accessible hardware both financially and from a user standpoint. Of course there are cheaper consoles on the market now and it still sells better (hint: maybe a console maker should go for a lower launch cost compensated by fewer long term price drops). User input will have to progress beyong waggle if people want to motivate new sales.

Btw, if I am a publisher selling HD games I am rooting for Sony or MS to ditch the HD market or see some compromises on hardware that result in fairly seemless porting. There is a huge market for graphically & gameplay advanced games. They idea that this market should be vacated or stagnated as many ideas call for would be a direct assault on a lot of the dev houses and publishers as well as an insult on the consumers. There is no doubt if MS released a 2x console and Sony did a proper next gen device MS's install base would be devistated. Consumers are fickle... asked Nintendo and Sony.

 

[BadTB25]

I agree that Sony and MS will not be following the Nintendo model with a "2xGamecube" type situation. In my opinion, Nintendo is probably the only company that could pull that off and not get heavily criticized for it.

A lot of their titles are not about pushing the hardware, but appear to be staying true to the its previous series iterations. They also space them out enough to where you actually want a new Zelda, Mario, etc.

Sony and MS, first and foremost appeal to the hardcore and rely on word of mouth and positive reviews to appeal to the mainstream and casuals.

Having a love of technology, I would hate for either company to abandon this philosophy. I hope they continue to push each other hard for that crown and hopefully because of the competition it'll be affordable as well.

 

[fearsomepirate]

I think consumers don't value graphics as much as you give them credit for. There is a large number of consumers that demands better graphics than the Wii puts out, but the number of consumers that demands the best graphics available is actually quite small, as evidenced by low sales of high-end PC cards. Also, note that there is not exactly a huge demand for social games in HD.

I think that what you're really seeing is that "testosterone gaming" is mostly limited to the PS3 and 360. Since there will always be lots of young men in the world, there will always be a big market for testosterone-driven gameplay. 20 years ago, it was Contra and Tecmo Bowl. Today, it's Gears of War and Madden NFL. The success of such game types are probably more correlated with system power than other genres, since youngish males like to boast about having the best stuff. However, its lack on Wii probably has more to do with Nintendo's marketing strategy than system power.

Cinematic gaming, which does depend heavily on the latest graphics and technology, as the games are more about imbibing production values, is never going to be big on a low-power machine. However, I think that this may be simply a trend, much like the special effects-based sci-fi film was a trend in the 80s. If it is, when its time passes, having the most powerful console won't be as big a deal.