MS launching a new gen in 2010 would be ludicrous. They are already three years into their second console, but at some point they need to stay in long enough to reap the rewards of the tail end of the generation. If they keep dropping a few billion to develop and market a new machine before the last one ever recoups it's own losses, you have to ask what the hell are they even in the market for?
Robbie Bach says this generation will last longer
- Thread starter wco81
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RadioFr33Europe
Newcomer
I think the decision to keep this generation going has more to do with economic conditions than necessarily the strength of current consoles. If MS or Sony were to release a brand new console at current market conditions at the price point that the PS3 or 360 began, I believe it would fail massively. Jaguar proportions.
Nintendo on the other hand could change the color of the Wii and people would throw themselves out windows to get it.
Nintendo on the other hand could change the color of the Wii and people would throw themselves out windows to get it.
Not just current economic conditions. If MS weren't losing money hand-over-fist with the XB, everyone would have happily sat on that gen a bit longer. Sony would have benefited greatly from a couple more years of $billions profits from their gaming division. MS wanted a change ASAP which pushed the others forwards. Now no-one wants a change ASAP, so they'll sit it out as long as they can. Each year of hardware cost-reductions and profits is a Good Year. No need to cut it short.
P on the rocks
Newcomer
A friend of mine bought a new 360 a month ago and it broke down within a day. My own 360 broke down for the second time and got replaced by Microsoft. As long as this is happening Microsoft needs about double the attachment rate they would normally need to break even for the losses they have by selling hardware and Microsoft has an additional motivator to rush to a new generation.
From a personal selfish point of view, I want the next generation to come as soon as possible. Right now, developers feel the need to deliver for the HD promise of the console makers but don't seem to be able to do it without framerates regularily dropping below 30fps. If this doesn't get fixed when the next generation comes, I ...will cry or something.
From a personal selfish point of view, I want the next generation to come as soon as possible. Right now, developers feel the need to deliver for the HD promise of the console makers but don't seem to be able to do it without framerates regularily dropping below 30fps. If this doesn't get fixed when the next generation comes, I ...will cry or something.
The big risk is if 3rd party publishers actually decide to retool for the Wii. If this generation goes on long enough, and if 3rd parties actually find something to sell on Wii besides low-budget minigame collections, naturally.
Microsoft repairs all of those broken consoles (whether they send you back the original or not). They manufacture a whole line of motherboards that are designed to fit into the old console shells. They would only do this if it was cheaper than throwing out the old consoles. Clearly they have some cost mitigation plan in place, and the remaining costs were already booked against 2006 fiscal year and do not have to be paid again. MS would only do this if they had a business case for seeing the generation through. I doubt we will see any rush by MS.
I'm fine sticking with the current generation for a while still. PS1 and PS2 felt very long in the tooth a few years into their life cycles, but with PS3 I have broadband, an HDD, HDMI, Blu-ray, HD resolution, and good enough graphics. I will clamor for the next generation when I play a game and think, man, this could have been so much better with [insert new HW-enabled technology].
I normaly get very excited for a new generation when they start showing off those games. Its very easy to enjoy the current graphics when there is nothing better to compare them too. As a pc gamer though that time frame is very small and i've been happy enough with my 360/ps3 but since playing crysis i've wanted another upgrade at home.
5/6 years is long enough for a flagship console. there is no reason why they can't release a new console and keep the old ones going. For MS if they wait to long the ps3 will continue to drop in price and start edging in on their install base , however if they can keep a year or two ahead of sony with new systems they can cause sony to never gain a foot hold again .
Mintmaster
Veteran
I think having a lead next time around will be important because it will be tough for the lagger to be able to make an appreciable difference in the console experience. Sony tried to make PS3 a clearly superior machine and failed, and XB1 succeeded in making a better machine but it was countered by PS2's lead, brand, and exclusives.
I think the next generation may last for an extremely long time. The PS5 generation is going to be a tough sell over PS4/XBoxNext because gameplay and art will absolutely dwarf the marginal improvements we see from hardware-dependent features.
I think the next generation may last for an extremely long time. The PS5 generation is going to be a tough sell over PS4/XBoxNext because gameplay and art will absolutely dwarf the marginal improvements we see from hardware-dependent features.
Agreed, next gen graphics are going to start to approach such a level that few people will care about further advances
...right, until Sony releas's a new system after the PS3 that is [hopefully] backwards compatible with a low price point.
I can ensure you that if Sony releases a new Playstation bundled with a camera, and some advanced motion sensing stuff (similar to what they have shown in tech demo's on the PS Blog and in patents) they will most certainly pose a serious threat to Microsoft unless Microsoft makes some big changes in the way they approach gaming.
As much as you may crave another upgrade, the companies that do minimal upgrades will be the ones that will be most successful next generation.
Obviously motion sensing technology was the big thing this generation that brought people in, and next generation it's going to be the combination of motion sensing and video. A controller and camera that can detect motion and general position together will over that next level of interactivity (as well as simplicity). The biggest hurdle will be accuracy.
That said, Sony has been working with both for some time, and I think it will be pretty easy for them next generation. I entirely predict a low spec PS4 to be slightly more powerful than the PS3 (basically a beefed up PS3) with a bundled HD camera and a new controller type (possibly the breakaway controller we've all seen).
But to say if MS get's a "headstart" on them, that they can cause Sony to never gain a foothold again? That's really really...ridiculous.
user542745831
Veteran
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Yep
as I mentioned earlier *unless the economy completely crashes and in 2-3 years we're in chaos* ealry 2011 we will see plans for a new system(s) and Nov 2012 I'm betting on seeing a new generation starting.
that's 3 years 10 months til release day ... plenty of time (7 years form when MS launched this current gen) Possibly 2011 if sony wants a do-over to get profitable agian and get the advantages that a head start bring.
Of course I expect Ms are planning on having themselves in a position to release a machine day and date with anything sony does if they come out early.
Well, I think Ubisoft is headed in a good direction, but I don't know if hiring people is going to seriously be necessary.
I think the next generation of consoles is going to be considerably 'weaker' than people are anticipating. At this point, the focus of the console hardware race should be entirely on CPU and Memory, IMO. I think we'll see some architecture similar to what we already have available, only in a more powerful (slightly) capacity.
I don't think we'll see the leap we've seen from last generatino to this generation.
I think the next generation of consoles is going to be considerably 'weaker' than people are anticipating. At this point, the focus of the console hardware race should be entirely on CPU and Memory, IMO. I think we'll see some architecture similar to what we already have available, only in a more powerful (slightly) capacity.
I don't think we'll see the leap we've seen from last generatino to this generation.
Dominik D
Regular
Jump will be much smaller than for this gen, I agree. But I don't really understand the reasoning behind the CPU part. CPUs today stall hungry for data. It's bus and storage that needs improvement. Memory will be faster, larger, sure. CPUs will probably regain OoOE, GPUs will be better tailored for stuff like shadows, AA or tessellation.
But except for storage, all these things are "obvious". Where race will really happen is the "added value", software and services. I agree with predictions of things like alternative constrols, motion sensing, cameras, etc. Most of the complexity still is in the software and the battleground are libraries aiding development.
As for UBI - R&D done now around the HW that's clearly on the horizon and prototyping pie-in-the-sky software technologies with newly formed teams makes perfect sense. IMO.
marcus_rocks
Newcomer
I remember the feeling when I first played Final Fantasy 10. I thought do they really need to release a PS3? because the game looks so good already.
Well, here we are, FFX is so outdated comparing to the current-gen games. This gen will last longer but we will definitely have a PS4 and Xbox720.
Well, here we are, FFX is so outdated comparing to the current-gen games. This gen will last longer but we will definitely have a PS4 and Xbox720.
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