You forget how quickly we stop caring about the non cutting edge when there are other shinies to distract us.
I can see them being at around 50% of hardware sales right now because why...? We've seen it before. The Playstation sold about 50 million units after four years, and is now at over 100 million--half of that increase from the redesigned units. (Though it has also now pretty much given up the ghost on sales.)
So while Reeves has a point, it does not mean they haven't hit a peak in momentum. "Number of hardware units sold" does not show how healthy that market segment is--profit does. How much hardware profit will they be giving up as they go? Will software plug along at the same rate? Will Sony's profit on software sales continue to be as high, since they too will be experiencing price drops?
There is profit momentum, interest momentum, and plenty of other "momentum" to look at other than just from the point of unit sales. Sales will not be increasing like we've seen before, and many year-on-year examinations will show levelling/decline.
How much has Sony made off the past four years of PS2 hardware/software and related peripherals, and how much have they made from the PS1 in that same span? We don't get the numbers, and I don't KNOW the numbers, but that is the overall trend you look at.
jvd is, of course, completely off his rocker.