I've been mostly a casual observer to this thread... However...
Well I'd be inclined to say the point where the masses start buying is the US $200 price, the 360 is already at the $300-400 range, often with bundled software.
Either the Wii or the 360 core will get to $200 first, possibly within the next 18 months too. The problem for Sony is that having a technically more complex and expensive product that loses more money on the hardware, combined with losing a year for cost reduction, you end up in a very similar situation to the Xbox1 vs PS2 price war - which would have bled any other company dry.
What makes this equation even more concerning is the comparative lack of profitable side business, there is no live subscription, no proprietary hard drive, video cables, no $100 wii controller combo, even batteries, headsets, wheel, themes, DLC etc... Also the software attach rate has, so far, proven to be alarmingly low - when even disk printing no doubt commands a premium. All this is a problem for Sony's ability to make money - which after all is the entire point.
In all likely hood, Sony will have a similar release count to Microsoft up to this price cut period too, which means a possibly sustained difference of ~100+ titles, not to mention a more expensive back catalog simply because it's younger.
And by keeping their stand alone bluray players priced higher than the game system, they also encourage users desiring bluray playback to purchase the system that not only arguably generates the least profit but dilutes the attach rate too. If you want an HD DVD drive, but not a games machine, the logical choice is a toshiba stand alone player not the 360+drive.
All these things influence mindshare, which inevitably influences marketshare.
All the while microsoft are busy virally extending the 360 beyond the core gamer market, pushing into areas like IPTV, video marketplace, XNA and education (and no doubt other areas yet to be announced - say the zune music store?). The natural response to this, of course, is 'well Sony will have IPTV too, and DVR, etc'.. Yet even this is an area I wouldn't see Sony being easily able to enter: any distributor will have serious problems with the overhead associated with bluray and the standard hard drive... Not to mention the software, which, funnily enough, is mostly microsoft software.
Microsoft has more at stake than the 360 with the IPTV move - it's the needle not the virus. Sony's equivalent is bluray, which has the problem of significantly increasing costs to both Sony and end users, delaying the system - and biggest of all - has significantly more competition, both old and new. If you were to place a bet: in 10+ years, which will be more common? 20? etc
There are loads of other parallels, I haven't even mentioned Live's ability to sell titles through your friends, gamerscore etc - which can't really be measured, but I feel is very significant - or even said much about that other (smaller) white box. At the end of the day, Sony has a serious problem on their hands.
Well I'd be inclined to say the point where the masses start buying is the US $200 price, the 360 is already at the $300-400 range, often with bundled software.
Either the Wii or the 360 core will get to $200 first, possibly within the next 18 months too. The problem for Sony is that having a technically more complex and expensive product that loses more money on the hardware, combined with losing a year for cost reduction, you end up in a very similar situation to the Xbox1 vs PS2 price war - which would have bled any other company dry.
What makes this equation even more concerning is the comparative lack of profitable side business, there is no live subscription, no proprietary hard drive, video cables, no $100 wii controller combo, even batteries, headsets, wheel, themes, DLC etc... Also the software attach rate has, so far, proven to be alarmingly low - when even disk printing no doubt commands a premium. All this is a problem for Sony's ability to make money - which after all is the entire point.
In all likely hood, Sony will have a similar release count to Microsoft up to this price cut period too, which means a possibly sustained difference of ~100+ titles, not to mention a more expensive back catalog simply because it's younger.
And by keeping their stand alone bluray players priced higher than the game system, they also encourage users desiring bluray playback to purchase the system that not only arguably generates the least profit but dilutes the attach rate too. If you want an HD DVD drive, but not a games machine, the logical choice is a toshiba stand alone player not the 360+drive.
All these things influence mindshare, which inevitably influences marketshare.
All the while microsoft are busy virally extending the 360 beyond the core gamer market, pushing into areas like IPTV, video marketplace, XNA and education (and no doubt other areas yet to be announced - say the zune music store?). The natural response to this, of course, is 'well Sony will have IPTV too, and DVR, etc'.. Yet even this is an area I wouldn't see Sony being easily able to enter: any distributor will have serious problems with the overhead associated with bluray and the standard hard drive... Not to mention the software, which, funnily enough, is mostly microsoft software.
Microsoft has more at stake than the 360 with the IPTV move - it's the needle not the virus. Sony's equivalent is bluray, which has the problem of significantly increasing costs to both Sony and end users, delaying the system - and biggest of all - has significantly more competition, both old and new. If you were to place a bet: in 10+ years, which will be more common? 20? etc
There are loads of other parallels, I haven't even mentioned Live's ability to sell titles through your friends, gamerscore etc - which can't really be measured, but I feel is very significant - or even said much about that other (smaller) white box. At the end of the day, Sony has a serious problem on their hands.
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