PS3 sales

[inefficient]

I hope the PS3 will make it to at least equal position (outside japan) with X360, it is good for the market to have two leaders neither with a huge edge. HOWEVER, I find it very difficult to believe there are 1m PS3s out there in the sales channels. Why? because GTHD, a FREE downloadable demo, gives ranks for your track times and even a loser can get a rank. I haven't checked for a week, but even so, the first car if you drive like a granny and then wait at the start/finish line, then come in just below the 2 minute cutoff, your rank is, um, something like 2x,xxx .. so that means, unless I'm missing something here, there are probably only 3x,xxx to 4x,xxx PS3s in the hands of consumers (who seriously would buy one and not use wifi or wired to check out the store?). (Btw, 4x,xxx is I think is a pretty good figure, given the late launch, the bundling that went on, and the difficulty getting one).

So I'm wondering why the other 950,000 PS3s (or, say, just 450,000) are not yet online, and have run the GTHD demo...

It's a millisecond timer and a very limited number of slots - That means a lot people are going to tie for equal rankings.

Since you have to come in under 2 seconds to rank at all. The largest possible value minus 1 would be: 1:59:999 that means there are only 120,000 possible positions on the score board.

And considering they will not be evenly distributed, a rank of 20,000 sounds pretty much in line with what should be expected.

Other games like the Lemmings score board is like this too. Lemmings does not even have a millisecond timer. So your rank is easily in the "hundreds" even if there are 10's of thousands of people playing.

 

[patsu]

Sorry I can't edit my previous post, but another indicator .. the forum membership at myresistance.net is about 11,000 people. So maybe 1/3rd the people who buy resistance bother to register there (it is kind of useful as they have online stats linking). Maybe 1/2 the people who bought a PS3 bought the best launch title.
So that still gives us 5x,xxx to 6x,xxx max in the hands of the consumers, and maybe 100k shipped at best?

Heh heh, doesn't work that way too. You need the *actual* numbers (or properly modelled estimates) to conclude anything. Those percentages you used have little grounding.

I have not registered with myresistance.net even though I have clocked hundreds of hours in it. The GTHD ranking is restarted every week.

 

[Fox5]

Sorry I can't edit my previous post, but another indicator .. the forum membership at myresistance.net is about 11,000 people. So maybe 1/3rd the people who buy resistance bother to register there (it is kind of useful as they have online stats linking). Maybe 1/2 the people who bought a PS3 bought the best launch title.
So that still gives us 5x,xxx to 6x,xxx max in the hands of the consumers, and maybe 100k shipped at best?

How many PS3's were just bought to resell or to have the latest, greatest thing? Unless the resistance thing automatically registers you in game just by clicking a button (no data entry) I doubt even 1/3rd of the people would do it.

Likewise, the number of people who go online with their console, even on the 360, doesn't even approach the number of systems out there.

I have not registered with myresistance.net even though I have clocked hundreds of hours in it.

HUNDREDS OF HOURS! How much free time do you have? Even back in my teenage days when I really only played video games in my free time, I can't think of very many games I even broke the 100 hour mark on. Maybe goldeneye, starcraft, and a small possibility of a few others. BTW, this is post number 666 in this thread. I'm not sure how to put devil smileys in text though, and just in case :devil doesn't work, I'll just put an Xbox (and thus Microsoft) logo as the icon for this post.

 

[inefficient]

Sorry I can't edit my previous post, but another indicator .. the forum membership at myresistance.net is about 11,000 people. So maybe 1/3rd the people who buy resistance bother to register there (it is kind of useful as they have online stats linking). Maybe 1/2 the people who bought a PS3 bought the best launch title.
So that still gives us 5x,xxx to 6x,xxx max in the hands of the consumers, and maybe 100k shipped at best?

No. You are grasping at straws.

 

[patsu]

http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/07/live-from-the-sony-ces-keynote/

The actual claim is they sold 1 million faster than the PS1 or PS2 so I misinterpreted the benchmark.

That could mean they're counting Japanese sales.

Ok, thanks for the link. Has anyone seen the Bravia Internet Video Link ? How does the Grouper, Yahoo and AOL video platform tie in with it ? (Using a built-in web browser ?).

Since XMB is the base interface, this is likely to be available to PS3 as well... in addition to the standard movies and TV download service later.

 

[22psi]

IIRC, Sony uses shipped numbers as units that has left the factory for warehouses (distribution centers) and MS uses shipped numbers as units that has left the warehouses and en route to retailers. I think it was Robbie Bach that mentioned there is a 6-8 week difference in what Sony and MS calls as shipped numbers.

 

[wco81]

IIRC, Sony uses shipped numbers as units that has left the factory for warehouses (distribution centers) and MS uses shipped numbers as units that has left the warehouses and en route to retailers. I think it was Robbie Bach that mentioned there is a 6-8 week difference in what Sony and MS calls as shipped numbers.

what would Robbie Bach know about Sony's operations?

That's probably pretty proprietary data.

 

[inefficient]

IIRC, Sony uses shipped numbers as units that has left the factory for warehouses (distribution centers) and MS uses shipped numbers as units that has left the warehouses and en route to retailers. I think it was Robbie Bach that mentioned there is a 6-8 week difference in what Sony and MS calls as shipped numbers.

He means there is a 6-8 week difference between when an xbox comes from the factory and when it leaves the warehouse. He does not know what Sony's logistics are like.

Do you really think Sony is going to keep PS3's in a warehouse for 6-8 weeks at this stage in the game? They probably get put on a plane or boat mere days after they leave the factory.

For MS it is totally a different story since they are at a much later stage from their launch cycle.

 

[inefficient]

http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/07/live-from-the-sony-ces-keynote/

The actual claim is they sold 1 million faster than the PS1 or PS2 so I misinterpreted the benchmark.

That could mean they're counting Japanese sales.

The headline from CNN is: Sony Ships 1 Million PS3s in N. America
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/pro...107&ID=6320540

 

[a688]

He means there is a 6-8 week difference between when an xbox comes from the factory and when it leaves the warehouse. He does not know what Sony's logistics are like.

Do you really think Sony is going to keep PS3's in a warehouse for 6-8 weeks at this stage in the game? They probably get put on a plane or boat mere days after they leave the factory.

For MS it is totally a different story since they are at a much later stage from their launch cycle.

I'd imagine what Sony calls shipped would be known since they are a public company and have investors. Shipping time depends on things like where the warehouses are and where the market is located. It takes time to ship stuff and have it pass through customs.

 

[Acert93]

Hmm, arguing that BR was the wrong move is a bit too much IMO at this point.

A little to early to be making such a statement, don't you think?

That's more than what MS shipped in NA last year.

True.

But kind of selective in that MS hit like 900M in NA, and then also shipped a substantial number to Japan & Europe with a grand total about 1.5M. IF MS had delivered 1M units to NA last year they would have sold that many as well.

And don't tempt me to dig up all the, "Worse launch ever" type threads about how MS totally botched delivery, how a WW launch was a mistake, and so forth. They were perceived to have substantially undeliver units.

Also more than what PS1 and PS2 shipped.

Selective again, and not quite sure if totally accurate. The PS2, for example, was EXTREMELY supply limited in the US in 2000. Yet they launched on October 26th, 2000 and this is what their sales looked like in 2000 in NA according to NPD numbers:

Oct: 391,245
Nov: 187,554
Dec: 522,239

So in the launch year of the PS2 they shipped 1.1M PS2s NA in 2000. And that isn't counting another 5.3M in Japan in 2000.

Anyhow, I think the general consensus was Sony could easily sell the first 6M they were aiming by March 31st, 2007 which they had aimed to ship. With over 100M clients and offering HD media capabilities hundreds of dollars cheaper than other BDR units there is a large enthusiest market to tap.

If Sony sells those 6M units, I don't think we can extrapolate what innovators (early adopters if your are not London-Boy) buy as an indication of the general market. Just look at the couple hundred thousand HD DVD sales. Few movies, divided studio support, wobbly market foundation, and tearse market competition and yet people were paying a LOT of money for HD DVD players. But just because an enthusiest with cash to burn will do such doesn't mean that we can project such trends for an entire industry--especially when history tells us that hitting key price points is important to penetrate to various market levels. Not the ONLY important thing, but a relevant factor. In many ways Sony is charting new ground with the PS3 pricing model. If anyone can push such a platform though it is Sony (with over 200M PS sold in the last 10 years).

 

[Dave Baumann]

So in the launch year of the PS2 they shipped 1.1M PS2s NA in 2000. And that isn't counting another 5.3M in Japan in 2000.

Actually, if they are NPD numbers that whould actually say "sold through at least 1.1M".

 

[wco81]

A little to early to be making such a statement, don't you think?



True.

But kind of selective in that MS hit like 900M in NA, and then also shipped a substantial number to Japan & Europe with a grand total about 1.5M. IF MS had delivered 1M units to NA last year they would have sold that many as well.

And don't tempt me to dig up all the, "Worse launch ever" type threads about how MS totally botched delivery, how a WW launch was a mistake, and so forth. They were perceived to have substantially undeliver units.



Selective again, and not quite sure if totally accurate. The PS2, for example, was EXTREMELY supply limited in the US in 2000. Yet they launched on October 26th, 2000 and this is what their sales looked like in 2000 in NA according to NPD numbers:

Oct: 391,245
Nov: 187,554
Dec: 522,239

So in the launch year of the PS2 they shipped 1.1M PS2s NA in 2000. And that isn't counting another 5.3M in Japan in 2000.

...

My first statement was a parody of an earlier statement by someone else about BR already being a mistake.

As for the sell-through numbers, there are reports Sony shipped almost 500k in Japan. So who knows, Sony may have matched or even exceeded the X360 performance last year. A more impressive achievement considering the higher price and the competition which X360 didn't face last year.

Oh and I misinterpreted Sony's claim about PS1 and P2 vs. PS3. Sony actually claimed the PS3 reached 1 million faster than their previous 2 consoles.

 

[Acert93]

My first statement was a parody of an earlier statement by someone else about BR already being a mistake.

Ignore the noise by not creating more noise :smile:

As for the sell-through numbers, there are reports Sony shipped almost 500k in Japan. So who knows, Sony may have matched or even exceeded the X360 performance last year.

As of December 17th they shipped 308,949 units. The week ending Dec 24th they shipped another 76,882. That would put them at 385,831 sales with 1 week left in the year and with supply only jumping from ~70k to ~76K in the last 2 weeks before. Sony COULD have hit 500k in Japan, but it doesn't seem very likely. While I don't mind "reports" it would be nice if there was some sort of consensus on when it is fair to count such. At this point it doesn't appear they cracked 500K units sold to consumers, but they may have well had 500K units in the Japanese distribution channels.

I think in general that this is all a flawed exercize because all these launches are supply, not demand, limited.

A more impressive achievement considering the higher price and the competition which X360 didn't face last year.

See above comment about supply limits. You are ignoring the fact that both sold every unit they could at launch. As for impressive, it all depends on perspective and what parts you want to emphasize. Personally due to supply limits it is difficult to gauge the real demand--a wash in that respect. But relatively I would say that I would expect to be more impressed with PS3 sales because they are the market leader and outsold MS and Nintendo combined last gen by OVER 2:1.

Ultimately it depends on the metric you use (the 4M 2006 one Sony initially set? The PS2 2000 sales in Japan and the US? What?); but I think comparing 1 supply limited launch to another supply limited launch and concluding the appearantly smaller launch is more impressive is kind of odd way of doing things

But it is all kind of irrelevant. Launches are not in vacuums. And while current marketshare circumstances do affect the market, it would also be hasty to make conclusions like, "MS leads 10:1 so Sony is doomed" or early conclusions after software attach rate for Sony or trending of 360 console demand, and so forth. There is a lot of time to figure this stuff out, although there are signs worthy of discussion if people are interested in it. But what really matters, imo, from a business perspective at this time is total number of units in customer hands and how many they can have within the forseable future, the software being sold (amount, 3rd party, and quality/consumer satisfaction), and momentum (sales, production, mindshare, etc). The emphasis on "We outsold your supply limited launch with our supply limited launch" doesn't mean much. Even less when, well, it doesn't appear true Because by my count it is looking like MS may have delivered about 100k more units... but it doesn't really matter because even if they did their launch was different (world wide) and was limited as well. What has caught my eyes more is seeing PS3s sitting on the shelf here in town for over a week now. Not something I expected as I have been predicting those first 6M units flying off shelves. But this could be the nature of a non-impulse buy: They move briskly, but not "bought on sight" due to it being a significant purchase. The next couple months will answer these questions, or at least clarify them.

 

[Onlooker1]

No. You are grasping at straws.

Wow you guys are hypersensitive to ******ism. I'm not an xbox freak "grasping at straws" to justify his investment. I don't have an xbox! I actually have 2 PS3s right now (one japanese one NA). As I said in my first post, I'd love for the PS3 to be a roaring success! But I also have a good feel for how many people are out there, owning and playing a game, and the resistance community does not feel anywhere near six digits. Everything (forum members, topic views, peak hour online matches, gamefaq topics) feels like a 5 digit distribution (so far).

As for the guy who pointed out GT time slots must have many dup's this isn't supported by racing: if I improve an average time by a small fraction, often I do not improve my rank at all, indicating I am alone at the time I recorded - which is, after all, reported to the 1000th of a second.
Therefore, there are almost no dups. In fact, there are no dups in the top 50 either, even in the japanese market where there are a lot more players:
http://www.gran-turismo.com/jp/gthdc/ranking/list/?board=1&weeks=104924
So my GT rank is what it is, and the worst time roughly indicates recorded trials that week.

I stick by my prediction that within the first week or so of GTHD release, there were only about 25,000 NA PS3s plugged in and online with an owner interested in downloading the demo. You can predict what you want about NA sell-through from that. From 50k to 200k, but it sure isn't 1m!!

(I really can't see many buying a PS3 without a broadband connection, there are too many broadband connections now, and it is too interesting not to leverage that functionality).

 

[Bobbler]

Wow you guys are hypersensitive to ******ism. I'm not an xbox freak "grasping at straws" to justify his investment. I don't have an xbox! I actually have 2 PS3s right now (one japanese one NA). As I said in my first post, I'd love for the PS3 to be a roaring success! But I also have a good feel for how many people are out there, owning and playing a game, and the resistance community does not feel anywhere near six digits. Everything (forum members, topic views, peak hour online matches, gamefaq topics) feels like a 5 digit distribution (so far).

As for the guy who pointed out GT time slots must have many dup's this isn't supported by racing: if I improve an average time by a small fraction, often I do not improve my rank at all, indicating I am alone at the time I recorded - which is, after all, reported to the 1000th of a second.
Therefore, there are almost no dups. In fact, there are no dups in the top 50 either, even in the japanese market where there are a lot more players:
http://www.gran-turismo.com/jp/gthdc/ranking/list/?board=1&weeks=104924
So my GT rank is what it is, and the worst time roughly indicates recorded trials that week.

I stick by my prediction that within the first week or so of GTHD release, there were only about 25,000 NA PS3s plugged in and online with an owner interested in downloading the demo. You can predict what you want about NA sell-through from that. From 50k to 200k, but it sure isn't 1m!!

(I really can't see many buying a PS3 without a broadband connection, there are too many broadband connections now, and it is too interesting not to leverage that functionality).

Your making assumptions about the market based on your own anecdotes, that's the problem. Overreaction may not have been warranted, as you seemed to have genuinely just been mistaken and not maliciously predicting crazy numbers, but it's not often people predict numbers like that without some mischievous intent.

What percentage of PS3 owners have their PS3s plugged in? How many of them are inclined to play games online even? How many of them are inclined to buy Resistance (and play it online, after buying it and then sign up for that myresistance site) or DL the GTHD game? The amount playing and putting themselves on a scoreboard in GTHD and resistance are fractions of fractions. Even those with broadband connections may not be inclined to DL much stuff or play online.

50-200k units is an absurdly low estimation... NPD should show PS3 in the NA closer to 800k for 06 (maybe even before the required 10-20% NPD roundup).

 

[scooby_dooby]

Sony announced this eve. that they shipped 1 million in NA.

That's more than what MS shipped in NA last year.

Also more than what PS1 and PS2 shipped.

Ya after an 8month delay! Don't forget that! I don't really see how this is relevant other than PR and braggin rights, the fact remains that they are now 8million units behind, and that's a direct result of BR.

It's also a really weak PR number, talk about spin. They had targeted 2million by years end, and now they're 'delighted' about having shipped 1million, ya I'm sure they're really happy right now.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Anyhow, I think the general consensus was Sony could easily sell the first 6M they were aiming by March 31st, 2007 which they had aimed to ship.

Given what we've seen with Supply already beginning to outstrip demand I'm starting to think this is no longer the case. I would be impressed if they can manage 4million by that time, but even that I think is a little much.

Last year proved that holiday demand does not carry through to the spring months, and that it's integral that the supply be there on the holidays and not 1 or 2 months late. 360's sales of 200-250k in the spring months bear this out. Ps3's should do better than xbox, but 400k-500k/month is the best I think can reasonably be expected. And at that pace, they're not selling 6million units by march...

be hasty to make conclusions like, "MS leads 10:1 so Sony is doomed"

Not just hasty, but plain dumb. Obviously the strength of Sony's brand will carry it to at least an even share of the market with 360. However, I don't think it's too early to say that Sony's chances of market domination have flew out the window, that's just not going to happen. With the inclusion of BR and them missing the boat on the first holiday season, only getting 1million out the door, they've effectively shot themselves in the foot.

 

[scooby_dooby]

As for the sell-through numbers, there are reports Sony shipped almost 500k in Japan. So who knows, Sony may have matched or even exceeded the X360 performance last year. A more impressive achievement considering the higher price and the competition which X360 didn't face last year.

Not really considering Sony's overwhelmingly strong brand name. You keep painting them as the underdog, but the fact is if they didn't sell the first 2million they shipped it would be an utter disaster. Also, the fact that PS3 is just barely able to match PS2 or x360 shipments after an 8 month delay is not a positive thing!

 

[compres]

Ya after an 8month delay! Don't forget that! I don't really see how this is relevant other than PR and braggin rights, the fact remains that they are now 8million units behind, and that's a direct result of BR.

It's also a really weak PR number, talk about spin. They had targeted 2million by years end, and now they're 'delighted' about having shipped 1million, ya I'm sure they're really happy right now.

As you said on the other thread, yes they are getting desperate.