Prediction Poll: How many PS3's will be sold?

[TheChefO]

Considering PS2 dominated the generation and sold (continues to sell) over 100million, how many PS3s do you think Sony will move this gen?

Just trying to get a general pulse of our forum at this point in time.


From my perspective, I think they will come on strong next year with a solid lineup and a projected $300 price. I don't think they will get anywhere near ps2 levels though. I feel Wii and xb360 will firmly entrench themselves this year and Sony will have to make up for lost time/momentum.

They still have a solid internal dev group though and a strong name with great technology.

40-60million

While last gen, most every gamer had a ps2, this gen I think there will be a division and many of the past ps2 gamers will migrate to Wii or xb360.

 

[Natoma]

It totally depends on price. If Sony decided to slit their wrists and lower the PS3 price to $250, matching Wii, they'd sell PS1/PS2 #s. At the current prices, they'll be lucky to get to 20 million.

That said, I answered as if they're not lowering their prices anytime soon.

 

[TheChefO]

It totally depends on price. If Sony decided to slit their wrists and lower the PS3 price to $250, matching Wii, they'd sell PS1/PS2 #s. At the current prices, they'll be lucky to get to 20 million.

That said, I answered as if they're not lowering their prices anytime soon.

One has to assume they will do everything in their power to sell as many as possible without risking their financial stability, nor pissing off investors too much by sacrificing profit over long periods of time.

I'm banking on:
$400 this year 2007
$300 next year 2008
$230 2009
$180 2010
$150 2011
$130 2012

Quite aggressive, but I think at this point they have to be.

 

[Natoma]

$400 this year? Pfft. They barfed at $500 for the 20GB by phasing it out, and again for the 60GB by not making it a permanant SKU during the so-called price drop in July.

I don't see that pricing happening anytime soon, though they definitely need to do it.

I'd wager, at best:

2007: $500
2008: $400

Who knows beyond that.

 

[aselto]

I voted <40M. I think it will be slightly below that number actually, but it will not be a smashing hit. Thay will gain some momentum due to price drops and better games library than now, but I think Microsoft and especially Nintendo will always be ahead this gen.

 

[TheChefO]

If Sony decided to slit their wrists and lower the PS3 price to $250...

Interestingly, I'd wager even if they managed to hit that pricepoint this year, they still wouldn't hit ps2-like numbers.

Their software library is still weak in comparison, and their competition is quite price flexible themselves.

MS would obviously answer by having a price cut, but I don't think they would match feature for feature. I think they would push the core down to the $200-250 mark and drop the premium to the $300 range with a few games packed in.

N could do nothing and see if it affects their sales at all. If it does, price drop to $200 and they'd still rake in the profits.


While such a drastic and aggressive move by Sony would significantly boost sales, I still don't see it pushing their userbase to the same level as ps2. PS2 last gen was THE standard. This gen, there really isn't a standard, but the closest thing to it is the Wii. I think price plays a role, but I also think the interface plays an even bigger role. The price just doesn't inhibit those curious about Wii from purchasing one.

 

[AlphaWolf]

If they keep selling it for 10 years they might see 60 million, even a triple AAA (halo killer) title at their current price point won't move too many more boxes.

They really need to get the price down on the system if they want sales to ramp up.

 

[TheChefO]

If they keep selling it for 10 years...

I think that's another factor that's taken for granted. Just because ps1 and ps2 sold for 10 years doesn't mean ps3 will. Both ps1 and ps2 were wildly popular and clearly lead their generations.

If ps3 is sitting in third place come ps4, they will likely kill the product off as the standard features keep it from being "cheap" to manufacture, thus limiting profitibility. Especially compared to its competition.

I don't see ps3 having a short lifespan like xb1, but I don't see them hanging around for 10 years either. I'd say 6 or 7 years would be about right for ps3.

The cheaper markets where countries can't afford the more expensive consoles that were just recently buying psone, they will be buying Wii's years from now or maybe xb360 cores with no HDD ability.

 

[liolio]

I mess up my vote I wanted vote 40/60 because I still thin Sony can regain audience in Japan, and the situation in Europe is still quiet open, but I chose 60/80...

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Wii will obviously grab a large percentage of Sony's market share from the previous generation. X360 will do so, although not as much. Considering that last gen was about 150-160 million units, 105-110 million of them PS2s, I'd say Sony can be happy if they manage to keep ~60 million, so about 33% of the (somewhat expanding) market in the end.
And Nintendo will probably get more from the other 67% then Microsoft.

 

[borowki]

I voted for 100 mil+, simply because I expect the market for video game will at least double in the next decade. First and foremost, the emergence of China. People there are starting to be rich enough to afford consoles. Given that Chinese tend to have similiar taste to Japanese in games, Sony will do well there. In contrast, popular Xbox titles will likely face outright bans. Second, the new members of the EU. Sony has a near stranglehold on these countries now, as the PS2 is the only console the average person can afford. When people finally move to the next gen a few years down the road, the PS3 would be the likeliest choice.

 

[TheChefO]

Wii will obviously grab a large percentage of Sony's market share from the previous generation. X360 will do so, although not as much. Considering that last gen was about 150-160 million units, 105-110 million of them PS2s, I'd say Sony can be happy if they manage to keep ~60 million, so about 33% of the (somewhat expanding) market in the end.
And Nintendo will probably get more from the other 67% then Microsoft.

In thinking about how many potential sales are out there though, one has to consider a couple things:

1) replacement/duplicate consoles purchased (other rooms or broken units)

2) multi-console gamers


I don't have solid figures or research, but it seems to me, the vast majority (90%+?) of gamers out there had a ps2 last gen. Rarely would you find a gamer that had only an xbox or only a GC and didn't have a ps2. Conversely, many gamers had only a ps2 and didn't have a XB or GC.

Also, I'm sure many of the ps2 sales (especially recently in the past few years) were replacements for broken units or additional units bought for kids bedrooms etc.



For these reasons, I think the actual number of gamers out there buying consoles is somewhere in the neighborhood of 100million, not 160m.

If anyone has hard figures on this that can contribute, please do so.

 

[TheChefO]

I voted for 100 mil+, simply because I expect the market for video game will at least double in the next decade. First and foremost, the emergence of China. People there are starting to be rich enough to afford consoles. Given that Chinese tend to have similiar taste to Japanese in games, Sony will do well there. In contrast, popular Xbox titles will likely face outright bans.

Interesting. I don't agree on the rate of expansion, but I think you have a strong point with China likely leaning toward ps3. It will likely get 'cracked' before Wii or xb360.

Second, the new members of the EU. Sony has a near stranglehold on these countries now, as the PS2 is the only console the average person can afford. When people finally move to the next gen a few years down the road, the PS3 would be the likeliest choice.

These poorer countries I'd argue will likely not adopt ps3 and would much more likely adopt a cheaper Wii years down the road. Wii will be dirt cheap to manufacture in 5-10 years and will be a solid candidate for these ps2 gamers of today to "upgrade" to. XB360 will also be cheaper to manufacture than ps3 so again, I'd say it is more likely than ps3 to be their next console.

X-factor for these poor countries could again be pirated games though.

 

[Archgamer]

Sony seems happy with mediocre sales. So 20 million when everything is said and done.

Sony welcome to the third place.

 

[assen]

40-60. That's what the simExchange predicts currently

Interesting. I don't agree on the rate of expansion, but I think you have a strong point with China likely leaning toward ps3. It will likely get 'cracked' before Wii or xb360.

Hm, that's interesting - why do you think so? The PS3 has an interesting hardware security feature where you can get one of the SPUs to execute only encrypted code, and control what's happening on the entire Cell. It will take a combination of several very stupid bugs to overcome this, and even then it won't be easy to exploit commercially - see the current situation with the 360 exploit, for example, which requires swapping firmwares, soldering, FPGA-based devices etc.

 

[one]

Interesting. I don't agree on the rate of expansion, but I think you have a strong point with China likely leaning toward ps3. It will likely get 'cracked' before Wii or xb360.

Modded 360 and Wii are already common in China thanks to DVD.

 

[Schaden]

40-60 assuming we're projecting at least a 6 year lifespan.

 

[LunchBox]

it really depends on their pricing and games.
They could potentially surpass ps2 since the videogame industry is still expanding.
But I'm not sure if they'll be number 1 this time around.

 

[slider]

I get the impression that Sony themselves are pretty confident (what they're basing that on is anyone's guess!).

I went for 40-60. I get the impression (all very informally) that there's a significant demographic that is waiting for the PS3 to be cheaper.

I think 40-60 could count for say... 40%ish percent of the market(?). Not great but not as disastrous as things might have appeared in the 1st year of the PS3's life.

 

[borowki]

Interesting. I don't agree on the rate of expansion, but I think you have a strong point with China likely leaning toward ps3.

That's annual growth of 7% over 10 years. It's not that aggressive.

These poorer countries I'd argue will likely not adopt ps3 and would much more likely adopt a cheaper Wii years down the road. Wii will be dirt cheap to manufacture in 5-10 years and will be a solid candidate for these ps2 gamers of today to "upgrade" to. XB360 will also be cheaper to manufacture than ps3 so again, I'd say it is more likely than ps3 to be their next console.

It'll hard for Nintendo to compete in these emerging markets. Whereas Sony and Microsoft have local operations in place already, pushing their extensive lines of products, Nintendo will need to build all the infrastructure just to support a couple. I also don't see an audience for the Wii. We're talking about societies where gaming hasn't entered the mainstream culture.