I wouldn't bet on the new generation consoles repeating the high cost negative margin stuff we've come to expect. Nintendo has proved that it's not all about horsepower anymore.
You don't need to create a negative margin console next gen.
IF we take the $400 price range and use only off the shelf parts.
You can put together a
phenom x 6 2.8ghz
8 gigs of ddr 3 1666 (or whatever speed it is )
radeon 6870 with 1 gig v ram
mobo
case
and spend right about $400 on it . This is with multiple levels of market up involved and in 2011.
A next gen console after the 32/28nm shrink could be even more powerful
believe Bulldozer can make a great console CPU. just don't wish for eight cores or even eight modules - two bulldozer modules would seem just about enough, with a 64bit memory controller if it's a standalone chip and maybe no L3.
That provides huge single thread performance, destroying current consoles CPUs, and may be enough multi-threading - beyond that there are diminishing returns, more need for L3 and bandwith, ring bus etc.
why not just go with the standard 4/8 bulldozer config that hits desktops later this year. They will be on 32nm and should from what I understand be smaller than the current phenom II x6 parts currently on the market. Price would come down with thenext micron drop at 22nm and unlike cell or waternoose there will be at least a year of high production amounts to increase yields .
But at what price? Bulldozer is the newest and greatest AMD CPU, it won't be sold cheap.
I feel the best x86 deal they can get is an old, and therefore not so marketable quad core Athlon X4, which would be enough for a next gen console. Of course they'll need to be able to make them at 28nm, and who's going to sell cheap 28nm wafers when all the latest high margin CPU and GPU's are using up all of them?
AMD is hurting for money , their cpu busniess is not doing so great and its mostly the gpu side keeping them in the plus this year. If amd can forge a good deal with MS for millions of chips over a 5-10 year period it could greatly help their bottom line.
lets look at amd's line up .Their flagship phenom II x6 sits at just $240 . The sempron LE 1250 sits at just $30 .
Their average selling price of desktop cpus will be very low , in the $100 range .
So if amd can sell the bulldozer cpus at a profit to MS and keep fabs at capacity it may be a very good deal for amd .
You might say they can sell every chip they make and that remains to be seen , we don't know how well bulldozer will do against sandy bridge and future intel cpus.
So lets say it costs AMD $50 bucks to make a bulldozer on 32nm . They turn around and sell it to MS for $75. They are now getting $25 profit per cpu. The xbox 360 has sold 50m units. They are looking at 1.25 billion dollars which if i recall is pretty much the amount they settled with intel for . That is a good chunk of coin for them.
On the flip side as micron process move foward amd will be able to make chips per wafer as MS will never need faster chips or more cores . So every year as yields go up or micron processes shrink amd will devote less and less fab space to MS . On the same side the cost per chip will drop even with a $25 charge for liscensing.
