Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

Do you? Do you know that for a fact? Like I said earlier, your "fact" is based on looking at the output configuration of a card and inferring the identity of the card from that. I can tell you folks right now, nobody got it right, for a number of reasons.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if it was an early prototype of the actual customised GPU that'll be in retail units.

 

Why are we believing this Chinese dude? Why are we believing Charlie?

I maintain my position the two people that had any legitimacy is the student that leaked the code names on Pastebin back in 2011, and Sweetvar26.

 

If you want to believe what hes saying it seems hes legit. Little hard to believe that he is not covered under the same nda as everyone else though or his information hasn't been removed like others.

My guess is it's not anyone who knows what's really going on

 

What makes sweetvar26 any more legitimate?
If we believe him, AMD delayed Sony's contract by putting MS project in priority. That's not really possible, as the two projects are supposed to be completely separate groups, one project cannot be put "on priority" unless a bunch of cash was given to sabotage a competitor. I doubt AMD would be allowed to do that, because it would be too easy, "here's a billion, delay our competitor's contract.. umm.. I mean put us in priority, we don't know who your other clients are *wink* *wink*".

 

Don't know what info is more legit if any.

I do think the two killer technologies floating around are Hybrid Memory Cube and Holographic Disc from GE. A IBM 3D CPU would blow the doors of an AMD CPU but I'm not sure that is possible.

 

Sweetvar26 is the first source of the code names Thebes, Jaguar and Kryptos, all three of which have been confirmed to be legitimate code names. All his post, posts in which he was quoted have been removed from both Gaf and Google Cache.

 

Why does that bit figure mean an HD 8900 as a GPU?

 

The student on pastebin, the one who said the Orbis would ship without an HDD?

That's not going to happen is it.

 

They may have some yield issues to start with but 20nm is right around the corner so I would expect them to try to quickly shrink in 12-18 months to that note then keep the same node for say 3 years then shrink to 14nm and release a Slim version in say 2017.

 

The yield issues and longer design time compared to PS4 makes sense now, if the big APU approach for 720 is true.

I think in the end the performance between the two will be a wash but it's interesting to see the differing approaches the two companies are taking this time, if the rumors are true.

 

I like conspiracy theories as much as anyone, but information removed like others? MS wishes they had that kind of power.

I think people put a little too much importance into nda's, they don't carry as much weight as some think or we'd never hear anything about anything.

 

If NDA's were of little use we should have far more concrete information by now. I'm still a bit shocked at how little known solid info is wandering around.

 

Though I do think Sweetvar does have legit info I wouldn't take the codename thing as proof. There is a linkedin profile that mentions both Thebe (No "s") and Kryptos.

How long they have been on the profile is anybody's guess. This person worked on Thebe and Kryptos between April 2011 and September 2012.

 

We didnt have solid info about 360 until early 2005 I think. Not much is different this time either.

 

NDA's are just contracts, you breach them, you risk having to pay the penalties.
In the case of larger companies, individual employees are usually covered by the companies confidentiality agreement, and the company signs an agreement with the platform provider.
My guess is that most deliberate leaks would probably result in a loss of employment for most people, and probably not a lot more. Though in most cases employees do open themselves to possible financial damages.

A lot of people talk to friends and family about work NDA or no NDA.

Most of the leaks I've seen over the years aren't from developers, but from people with secondary access to the information, as the set of disclosed people get larger, the leaks usually get more frequent.

Having said that usually leaks happen and then false leaks (people wanting attention) or misunderstanding of the data being reported as new information muddy the water to the point the information is lost.

 

Full 360 specs where leaked in 2004.

 

The technical diagram and specifications for 360 were leaked the day after it was disclosed to 3rd parties.
MS did briefings at a number of larger 3rd parties, to a lot of developers, I suspect that disclosure was more carefully controlled this time.

 

Oh was it? Thought it was early 2005.

 

There is this: http://spong.com/article/6994/Most-Detailed-Leaked-Xbox-2-Spec-Emerges-Must-Read

Which is a lot more, a lot earlier than what we have so far for Durango/Orbis....