Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[DieH@rd]

Good news, at least we can bury majority of the crazy rumors that called for 20nm gpu chips and 8xxx/9xxx gpu designs. Hopefully he will dig up few more infos about exact GPUs and how is MS planing to create "supercomputer". Im still hoping for dedicated GPUs in addition to APUs.

Sony coming out first [even with the AMD delays] is also a good news, this years E3 will be insane. Cant wait.

 

[MrFox]

Something I don't understand... if it's actually the same chip with some alterations, what could explain AMD being 6 months behind schedule on the PS4 chip, but right on time for the 720 chip?

Still, I'm glad we won't have to wait until 2014, that was a scary thought!

 

[McHuj]

Something I don't understand... if it's actually the same chip with some alterations, what could explain AMD being 6 months behind schedule on the PS4 chip, but right on time for the 720 chip?

Still, I'm glad we won't have to wait until 2014, that was a scary thought!

I believe he's the first guy who said that PS4 made a change from Steamroller cores to Jaguar cores. Swapping cores is not trivial and would cause a substantial delay.

 

[Ruskie]

Going from Steamroller to Jaguar is a big step down and I would guess they would do it only if they want to cut costs or they want to have a more headroom with GPU. If GPU target stayed the same and they went for Jaguar that means they have clear aims for cost of the system.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I believe he's the first guy who said that PS4 made a change from Steamroller cores to Jaguar cores. Swapping cores is not trivial and would cause a substantial delay.

Plus if Sony picked an architecture for an earlier release whereas MS wanted the same architecture for a later release, Sony could be set back whereas MS wouldn't be. That is, let's say Sony wanted Jaguar cores and were told they'd be ready by Dec 2012, and MS asked for Jaguar cores for Dec 2013. Sony get delayed 6 months, but MS have their chips available on time.

 

[almighty]

Would be interesting to see what changes each of them have made to the 'same GPU'

Wonder if Microsoft would push for another EDRAM implementation? But this time round actually make it big enough to actually make it useful.

 

[MrFox]

Is it plausible that Jaguar is more efficient than Steamroller, per watt and/or die area, and they have chosen to step down but add more cores?

I'm still hoping there will be something different between the two consoles. Could be on the memory side (720 with edram, PS4 with wideIO2 or whatever), but I can't stop thinking AMD is in the best position to know what memory scheme would be the best to keep that chip busy, and logically both console would end up with the same thing anyway. Unless one company specifically ask for something wild, or compromised to lower cost.

 

[almighty]

But I can't stop thinking AMD is in the best position to know what memory scheme would be the best to keep that chip busy.

Keeping a chip always busy has never been an issue in a closed box system.

If in your example Sony went with a larger bus width and Microsoft wen't with EDRAM while shader wise the machine would pretty much be neck and neck they would offer benefits over each other.

 

[ERP]

... but I can't stop thinking AMD is in the best position to know what memory scheme would be the best to keep that chip busy, and logically both console would end up with the same thing anyway. Unless one company specifically ask for something wild, or compromised to lower cost.

The problem with PC video card manufacturers is that they are forced to look backwards not forwards. i.e. the latest and greatest are optimized to run what's out as well as possible.

Sony and MS have a lot of flexibility in the GPU design even with the same basic architecture, even without esoteric additions like EDRAM.

How do you balance ALU's, ROP's, TMU's, tessellation performance, register pool sizes, cache sizes, and Bandwidth. Flops is a number people tend to think equates to performance, but it's only one part of the puzzle.

You could build two very different GPU's with the same basic building blocks, a lot depends on what the system designers think is going to be important going forwards.

Now I don't think anyone will really care about 4K displays but if one side did and the other didn't you'd build very different parts.

 

[Love_In_Rio]

Hot new post from "sweetvar26" at GAF. BG seems to think his info is legit in the past.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=43335723#post43335723

How can be one be a super computer and have similar chip -i presume he talks here about an Apu- to the other that is not so super?.

 

[COPS N RAPPERS]

Hot new post from "sweetvar26" at GAF. BG seems to think his info is legit in the past.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=43335723#post43335723

So sony is buying from AMD, if true that's very good. we can expect a very rejuvenating future for sony. A "7700 and a 7800" series eh, was hoping for the next generation over of cards but, they can be refined and probably be just as efficient. I hope they Up the memory to at least 8 gigabytes for both consoles though, more memory is always in need.

Him and the team at AMD feels the Xbox is going to be more 'powerful'.

If these stats are true, It would only seem that way on paper. The difference between the two series would be almost negligible, you can't really expect better from one an other interns of texture sizes and polygon counts. frame rate would be the only measurement ( 3 or 4 fps difference.) which is grate to hear.

 

[steviep]

How can be one be a super computer and have similar chip -i presume he talks here about an Apu- to the other that is not so super?.

More memory (albeit regular DDR), more CPU resources?

 

[MrFox]

How can be one be a super computer and have similar chip

I guess the same way WiiU has a Power7.
But seriously, maybe "like a super computer" is about the topology, not the performance aspect... meaning it has a lot of small cores.

 

[3dilettante]

So there's an internet poster claiming that they have a contact in AMD who is privvy to some notable chip and plaftorm details for two competing customers, and that contact speaks as if the various groups in AMD have been comparing and ranking two separate projects for two competing customers.

The very similar CPU core elements to Xenon and the PPU coming about because they stem from a common project aside, I was under the impression that IBM had much better compartmentalization than this. I don't recall anyone in IBM blabbing to that level of detail and to the detriment of a paying customer in the leadup to the current gen.

It may or may not be true. It doesn't look good to me when two separate projects and the organization itself leak like that, and leak together.
I'm not sure that's a positive factor if there is to be a next next gen and if AMD still exists at that time.
Similarly, AMD is trying sell itself as a design company that can help many customers build their custom SoCs and include their own IP and design ideas, but when working with two massively important customers it can't keep its cards to its vest and there are gossips trading information between them.

 

[Rangers]

How can be one be a super computer and have similar chip -i presume he talks here about an Apu- to the other that is not so super?.

he doesnt seem to know much at all about tech and can only talk about it in the crudest terms. i wouldn't put much stock in his use of the singular.

 

[ERP]

So there's an internet poster claiming that they have a contact in AMD who is privvy to some notable chip and plaftorm details for two competing customers, and that contact speaks as if the various groups in AMD have been comparing and ranking two separate projects for two competing customers.

The very similar CPU core elements to Xenon and the PPU coming about because they stem from a common project aside, I was under the impression that IBM had much better compartmentalization than this. I don't recall anyone in IBM blabbing to that level of detail and to the detriment of a paying customer in the leadup to the current gen.

It may or may not be true. It doesn't look good to me when two separate projects and the organization itself leak like that, and leak together.
I'm not sure that's a positive factor if there is to be a next next gen and if AMD still exists at that time.
Similarly, AMD is trying sell itself as a design company that can help many customers build their custom SoCs and include their own IP and design ideas, but when working with two massively important customers it can't keep its cards to its vest and there are gossips trading information between them.

Could be true, people talk. Companies are only as leak proof as the people who work there, If it's a real leak and AMD can track down the source, I'm sure they will make an example out of the person involved.
But in a big company there is a limit to how much of a lid you can keep on things, you start by disclosing as few people as possible, but invariably the list of disclosed people grow as you get closer to completion.
It's not just technical people either, finance has to be aware of it, HR, Test, .....
People have friends they talk, regardless of NDA's or corporate policy.

As to this "leak", it doesn't seem outlandish to me, but it contains almost no new information, if either MS or Sony is shipping in 2013, they need to be sampling chips very soon.

 

[3dilettante]

The point on ARM security is something more pertinent, since AMD has already indicated that the next designs start out with an additional ARM coprocesser to tap into ARM's security layer.
If Sony and Microsoft are using any future designs, that ARM would have come along by default, save if one of them made certain specific choices in their platform or design spec to exclude the security layer.
Since security is so important to both as device and media companies, it would give a good amount of insight as to where Sony is going.

The idea that team members that know such details for each project that are trading this information is something pretty dangerous for a company trying to sell itself as being trustworthy in designing your SoC at the same time it is workign on someone else's.
The fabs try very hard to keep even the hint of such a thing from going around, and IBM did not evidence such a cavalier attitude, and it was involved in 3 console designs in the same general time period.
If the leak is true, it points to the picture of an unsecure and unreliable design partner.

Now, AMD seems poised to lay off another big chunk of its employees. Perhaps the severe morale problem plays into that, or we know at least one kind of employee that should be in that layoff.

 

[tunafish]

Is it plausible that Jaguar is more efficient than Steamroller, per watt and/or die area, and they have chosen to step down but add more cores?

Jaguar would almost certainly be more efficient both in terms of die size and power, however at the cost of lower peak single-threaded performance.

I am not very confident at all in the veracity of this leak. I do not know how well they are compartmentalized this time around, but last time, the teams working on Hollywood and Xenos were separated to the point where talking to someone working in the other group over lunch was an infraction that you could be punished for. I really don't think there are many people at AMD who have any kinds of real details about both of the consoles.

 

[Gipsel]

I really don't think there are many people at AMD who have any kinds of real details about both of the consoles.

Game developers could have. There are definitely DevKits around (albeit not final) and I am quite sure MS and/or Sony briefed some devs about the specs to expect for the final version. Putting the pieces together can't be that hard.

 

[COPS N RAPPERS]

So there's an internet poster claiming that they have a contact in AMD who is privvy to some notable chip and plaftorm details for two competing customers, and that contact speaks as if the various groups in AMD have been comparing and ranking two separate projects for two competing customers.

The very similar CPU core elements to Xenon and the PPU coming about because they stem from a common project aside, I was under the impression that IBM had much better compartmentalization than this. I don't recall anyone in IBM blabbing to that level of detail and to the detriment of a paying customer in the leadup to the current gen.

It may or may not be true. It doesn't look good to me when two separate projects and the organization itself leak like that, and leak together.
I'm not sure that's a positive factor if there is to be a next next gen and if AMD still exists at that time.
Similarly, AMD is trying sell itself as a design company that can help many customers build their custom SoCs and include their own IP and design ideas, but when working with two massively important customers it can't keep its cards to its vest and there are gossips trading information between them.

Even if it's not real, the next consoles will be in the same league of contenders. It comes down to two things, the budget and the manufacturers. they do have a grater chance of being close in terms of specs, if they're working with the same manufactures. (On the side, if true, a leak from sharing manufactures would be possible.)

But most Importantly the budget, who could be inflicted the most? If it's a waiting game for sony to use similar tactics they could end up in throwing all chips on the table again. There's no point in mimicking other's plays if it ends in you folding or on the verge of bankruptcy. They should be at their own pace, looking out for their own safety.

I was hoping for the ATI-8800 series to be in the next consoles, still am, it's got plenty more bang for the buck.