Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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Some TSV news. Production ramping in 2013, full capacity in 2014 at GloFo.

http://cdn.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4371752/GlobalFoundries-installs-gear-for-20nm-TSVs
It would be interesting to know what are the power characteristic of the chips they plan to stack.
I would bet on pretty low power profile chips.

If some of you ( I expect most of people here to have) read Ivy Bridge review they will have noticed the diminishing headroom wrt to overclocking and the comments about how the chip is hotter as it's tougher to dissipate the heat (the issue being the surface of the chip is tinier as the chip is tinier).

I can't see any benefit stacking say 2 35 watts chips to use conservative values. The thing will be way tougher to cool down than a bigger chip burning 70 Watts.

Shortly I don't see stacking to offer any advantage more the contrary in the power range next generation should be not matter I would use the most conservative or the most enthusiastic estimates.

Interposers would be provide neat advantages for sure but that's different. GF seems to say that this could be ready (too) for mass production in 2014.
Could be a bit too late or risky for a launch in 2013. W&S
 
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The iPad and tablets are becomming popular. They are encroaching on the consoles realm.

The wall socket is an ally for future consoles. Just like in the SF novel Dune where "the spice must flow", in future console world "the wattage must flow". Tablets have physical limits as a result of being mobile and slim, so if I'm Microsoft I'd exploit the advantages a console has over a tablet: power consumption and a gamepad with advanced haptic feedback.

Well it's been 6 and a half years since the 360 released, so to see tablets encroaching isn't exactly surprising, though like PCs, I think they will suffer from lowest common denominator syndrome, so it will probably be a couple years before we really see a tablet/phone game truly match a console game in terms of pure graphical realism and detail. Tegra 3 sits at about 1/3 the general performance of Xenos? SGX543MP4 MHz sits around 1/2 at best? That's the general impression I tend to get looking at tech demos.

Nice Dune reference BTW.
 
Hmmm after a flurry of rumors a couple months back everything has gotten quiet, which makes me think they were not very substantial. If there were some teeth to them I think there would be a more consistent trickle, back and forth, corrections, etc as we see with the WiiU.
 
Iwata just confirmed that all Wii U titles will also be available digitally from launch. Also, that they will not disclose the price of the system during the E3.

Does this means that:

- Wii U will ship with way more than 8GB of internal storage?
- The device isn't going to be cheap?
 
Add $30 and put in 32GB of storage instead of 8? Or maybe they'll just support USB keys and you can expand your storage.
 
have two SD ports, the cost is minimal and you let consumers figure out what stuff they can push into the little slot (including nintendo branded one they will buy, just like they could buy overpriced cables for their previous console of any vendor)
 
Well it's been 6 and a half years since the 360 released, so to see tablets encroaching isn't exactly surprising, though like PCs, I think they will suffer from lowest common denominator syndrome, so it will probably be a couple years before we really see a tablet/phone game truly match a console game in terms of pure graphical realism and detail. Tegra 3 sits at about 1/3 the general performance of Xenos? SGX543MP4 MHz sits around 1/2 at best? That's the general impression I tend to get looking at tech demos.

Nice Dune reference BTW.

I would like to add that just like PC they will also start hiting walls, on how small the new tech can becomme and the actuall benefits it will lead to. So the quick progress of the processing power we have seen lately in the mobile phone/tablet space will level of I think. The other is that much of this progress we have seen, at least to me, seems that it is mostly about adding cores. I wonder for how long people will actually care about power and when they will start thinking about battery life. In the end I doubt you will get 100W mobile devices, so true, PC and console space are not as limited when it comes to wattage, although even there I think we will not see that much of an increase though. In the end though I have hard time seeing a 2W chip competing with a 100W chip, even after a couple of die shrinks...
 
Besides the power advantage, consoles also have a rock solid copy protection. Phones and tables are rooted within 48 hours of every new hardware release. Consoles have a single hardware build, no fragmentation, allows to tweak the heck out if the game. Tablet demographics are currently $1 to $10 impulse buys, consoles are mostly $60 preorders. But will this shift in the future? Both ways?
 
Not even close. The only thing that makes sense is a large add on hard drive sold separately.

Well, how many games are going to take up that space immediately? Even BF3 PC is 16GB. Will Nintendo games even get that close? (It's clearly not economical for the consumer, but that's not the point *cough*;)).

It's just another revenue stream/option.
 
Not even close. The only thing that makes sense is a large add on hard drive sold separately.

Nintendo stated last E3 that the storage will be openly expandable to the end user (i.e. any ol USB hard drive is fine, large SD/SDxc/SDHC/etc is fine).

I'm guessing the internals will only include a small flash chip (8-16gb) and there may be an SD card of a similar size included in the box as with the 3DS.
 
Besides the power advantage, consoles also have a rock solid copy protection. Phones and tables are rooted within 48 hours of every new hardware release. Consoles have a single hardware build, no fragmentation, allows to tweak the heck out if the game. Tablet demographics are currently $1 to $10 impulse buys, consoles are mostly $60 preorders. But will this shift in the future? Both ways?

I don't think the volume will ever be there to justify the production value that goes into an AAA title going for $10.
 
Thought laptop parts are non starters in consoles? Since by nature they are binned and not ultra high volume...

I think you could get a GPU with similar if not much better power numbers than a laptop part by doing a custom production. Right now I believe the laptop parts are down clocked and screen for best power numbers from the same production runs (as the full 7870 for example). All those parts are on the same process variation (likely 28nm HP as Nvidia is using) and targeting ~1 GHz performance.

If for instance, they chose to build a part with the same number of shaders and targeting only 750 MHz with a custom layout, they should be able to achieve higher density (thus smaller die size) as the transistors don't need to be as large. Larger transistors give you stronger drive and faster swiching times. Reducing their size will also lower leakage.

Going to a slower clock may allow them to use a LP variation of the 28nm process. That should further help power consumption and leakage.

With customization and a lower clock (750 MHz), I think you could reach a GPU a size of around 175mm and about 2 Tflop performance (1280 shaders & 750 Mhz) in about 75W. At least I hope. Another 35-45 for the CPU, 20 for fast RAM, and 20 for the rest of the system and you have a system around a 150W power requirement. Not unreasonable.
 
From GAF. Grain of salt and all that (because he mistakenly said 32nm steamroller, where he likely meant Llano or Trinity). Now the post didn't come out of nowhere. It was pestered out after multiple posts detailing the origin of his information (he's in Markham, ONT, Canada and apparently lives with one of the engineers).

Alright guys, got some information for you guys.

The PS4 AMD project called as Thebe. Previously it used to be based on Themesto and Callisto based chips but now that has been revised. They moved on to a chip called Jaguar replacing the Streamroller. They moved on to TSMC 28nm solution from the 32, which the streamroller is.

The whole thing basically is APU solutuion, they made the changes considering the 10 year product life cycle and to keep the initial product costs at minimum.

As of now it is called as the Thebe Jaguar project or TH-J.
The implication here is that the CPU has been downgraded from its original target of an APU based on Steamroller to... yech... an APU based on Jaguar. He's also suggesting the same thing I've heard in that Microsoft has revised their console for the beefier and will essentially be the "OG Xbox" of the generation - with more of AMD's resources dedicated toward that particular console.
 
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