Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Heinrich4]

I've seen tests that showed 187 watts for x360 and 199 watts for ps3 60gb, but these numbers are interesting and may be expressed in the maximum TDP supplied by the manufacturer.

http://www.sust-it.net/energy_saving.php?id=71

Just a thoughts...

Anyway it is interesting that the generation ps2/GC/Xbox to ps360 we saw an increase of over 100% TDP. Probably we will not see same level of increase in energy/watt/TDP,but may be that manufacturers could exceed the limits a little bit( from ps360 launch early 200 watts to 250watts) of the previous generation at least to send their consoles and launch "high TDP" and pass to review processes and reduce MOBO/PCB/ICs and others in the second year?

An improved system cooling could manage a console with equivalent sizes of the PS3 launch with 250 watts TDP?

 

[AlphaWolf]

But AMD CPU&GPU combo may be cheaper then IBM CPU&AMD GPU, wouldn't MS/Sony choose price/perf over perf/watt?..

They need to consider both. A higher power use will increase costs as they would need better cooling and a more robust PSU.

 

[Arwin]

I think PS4/360 may well be at a similar distance from WiiU as PS360 are currently from Wii. There may be a smaller difference in terms of memory, but you have to wonder about the overhead of that tablet both in terms of adding to the retail price and in terms of processing overhead. I'm certainly expecting that more than a ps2 to gc/xbox type deal.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think PS4/360 may well be at a similar distance from WiiU as PS360 are currently from Wii.

No way. Wii was built around 6+ year old tech when it launched. Wuu will be all of 2 years behind the tech curve unless Nintendo are supremely cheap, using outdated tech. Where Wii is maybe 1/10th PS360, Wuu should be more like a quarter of PS4/XB3 according to my gut feelings based on current rumours.

 

[IllusionistK]

I've seen tests that showed 187 watts for x360 and 199 watts for ps3 60gb, but these numbers are interesting and may be expressed in the maximum TDP supplied by the manufacturer.

http://www.sust-it.net/energy_saving.php?id=71

Just a thoughts...

Anyway it is interesting that the generation ps2/GC/Xbox to ps360 we saw an increase of over 100% TDP. Probably we will not see same level of increase in energy/watt/TDP,but may be that manufacturers could exceed the limits a little bit( from ps360 launch early 200 watts to 250watts) of the previous generation at least to send their consoles and launch "high TDP" and pass to review processes and reduce MOBO/PCB/ICs and others in the second year?

An improved system cooling could manage a console with equivalent sizes of the PS3 launch with 250 watts TDP?

And keep in mind that the 190w is total board power, and not CPU/GPU power.

I'm hoping the TDP increases linearly. I was surmising a middle-of-the-road 250w TDP for next gen instead of a 200w & 300w box.

 

[ban25]

What are the chances of they [Sony/MS] both going with AMD CPU&GPU ?..

Decent.

 

[Heinrich4]

I think PS4/360 may well be at a similar distance from WiiU as PS360 are currently from Wii. There may be a smaller difference in terms of memory, but you have to wonder about the overhead of that tablet both in terms of adding to the retail price and in terms of processing overhead. I'm certainly expecting that more than a ps2 to gc/xbox type deal.

I'm agree with Shifty.

I think "ps4/x720" should be at least in graphics power 2 times higher than Wii U, and sorry unfortunately it is a great IMO,2 cents etc,but I imagine something like a GPU 1 TFLOP/800 Alus for the Wii U(rumours -> RV770 pro at 40nm) and at least 1120/1408/Alus/2tflops (Barts XT to Cayman pro like refresh to 28nm) range for next gen console MS and Sony ie, nothing like the extreme difference from the wii (tech ArtX 1998/2000) to ps360 (2004/2006).

 

[BRiT]

No way. Wii was built around 6+ year old tech when it launched. Wuu will be all of 2 years behind the tech curve unless Nintendo are supremely cheap, using outdated tech. Where Wii is maybe 1/10th PS360, Wuu should be more like a quarter of PS4/XB3 according to my gut feelings based on current rumours.

Not really. Remember the Wuu is targetting just a notch above the 6+ year old tech [PS360].

Unless MS/Sony set their sights low, it could be just as sizable a difference between the Wuu and the PS4/X80. Fortunately for Nintendo, the difference between them likely wont seem that large since average consumers don't know what to look for. What they will notice is the graphic style differences between different games, but when looking at the same third-part games ported over, it'll seem close-enough. Afterall, they're the same consumer space who don't notice enough of a difference between SD and HD TVs.

 

[bgassassin]

The gap won't be the same because Wii U will be using "competent" hardware as opposed to Wii.

I'm agree with Shifty.

I think "ps4/x720" should be at least in graphics power 2 times higher than Wii U, and sorry unfortunately it is a great IMO,2 cents etc,but I imagine something like a GPU 1 TFLOP/800 Alus for the Wii U(rumours -> RV770 pro at 40nm) and at least 1120/1408/Alus/2tflops (Barts XT to Cayman pro like refresh to 28nm) range for next gen console MS and Sony ie, nothing like the extreme difference from the wii (tech ArtX 1998/2000) to ps360 (2004/2006).

I see it similar to this, but I think Nintendo will target either 32nm or 28nm for the GPU and probably closer to 640 ALUs. I see Sony/MS targeting GCN CUs. No more than 20 (1280 ALUs).

 

[IllusionistK]

TSMC has already taped out 20nm parts and are expected to have production silicon Q4'12.

I think it is plausible to have a 2048-4096SPs/ALUs (assuming at 250w TDP) part for a 2013 console when 20nm manufacturing will be under way by then.

 

[sebbbi]

GCN has hardware virtual texturing (http://www.anandtech.com/show/5261/amd-radeon-hd-7970-review/6). I wonder if Carmack has had any input on their decision to include it

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Not really. Remember the Wuu is targetting just a notch above the 6+ year old tech [PS360].

But, unless Nintendo go rummaging in the bargain bins for old tech, their GPU will be reasonably up-to-date. There'll be a DX10.1/11 GPU in Wuu, which will enable a lot of graphical features resulting in feature parity if not fidelity. So I guess Wuu games could look like PS4 games but with rougher polygons, lower IQ, maybe no dynamic GI. The difference won't be as perceptible as PS360 vs Wii again. Unless, as I say, Nintendo massively cheap out. If they greatly underclock their components and/or slap in an anaemic bus, that'd be possible, but I see no reason to expect that.

 

[TheWretched]

This might be true for earlier PS4 games, but later on in the cycle, devs might use stuff, which Wuu might not handle at all. I can't really say what that might be, but the situation you describe is very similar to the beginning of this generation. Tomb Raider Legend for example was more or less a PS2 game, but had upgraded shaders and whatnot for 360 and PC. But as the generation went on, stuff was piled onto the engines. And you can't just "disable it" like that anymore. At least not, if you don't want to put a lot of man hours into refactoring all the stuff for Wuu.

But I still can't really imagine that Wuu will be as awesome as some people make it out to be. It's unlike Nintendo if they go with a big console, and thus their are already hamstrung by the TDP before all else. And that alone will disallow any high-end performance parts. The newer generation parts will do their part, yes, but the lower clocks and size will do their part, too.

It's a bit like comparing an HTPC to mid-to-higher-end gaming PCs, if we look down the line between Wuu and PS420. Yes, you can game on an HTPC, but the built in GPU (as in Llano or similar) won't hold up well with newer games and high settings. The gaming PC will breeze through these games at lower settings and might produce acceptable performance on higher settings (depending on how the player wants the game to play, as I prefer stable 60Hz, I usually disable 4xMSAA in favor of higher framerate for example, as I am already playing at 1080P on my TV).

 

[bgassassin]

But, unless Nintendo go rummaging in the bargain bins for old tech, their GPU will be reasonably up-to-date. There'll be a DX10.1/11 GPU in Wuu, which will enable a lot of graphical features resulting in feature parity if not fidelity. So I guess Wuu games could look like PS4 games but with rougher polygons, lower IQ, maybe no dynamic GI. The difference won't be as perceptible as PS360 vs Wii again. Unless, as I say, Nintendo massively cheap out. If they greatly underclock their components and/or slap in an anaemic bus, that'd be possible, but I see no reason to expect that.

Pretty much this. The fact that it's supporting Eyefinity which was introduced after the R700 line should have been an early indication that it will be much more modern. And speaking of the bus, I have heard that it's pretty solid.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And speaking of the bus, I have heard that it's pretty solid.

I can't see any reason to think it wouldn't be. I think it fair to say Nintendo have generally designed well balanced systems without an obvious gimpage. N64 had stupid memory limits, I guess, and perhaps one could say GC was a bit short on RAM too, but they've not done anything really stupid like stick a massive GPU on a tiddly little bus before now and have it BW starved. Where their hardware has been lacking is choice of components, not design. As such, if they put in a decent CPU and GPU this time around, I expect all the extras to be up the task. If we use such gross measures as multiples of a previous generation, if MS and Sony have a typical 10x increase from this gen to next, and Wuu only has a 2x increase over PS360, then Wuu will be 5x behind PS4*. If Nintendo go with 3x this gen (not implausible, with next-gen GPU and more RAM) then that places them ~3x behind PS4. The difference between PS4 and Wuu really can't be like the 10x difference between PS360 and Wii.

*Note I only use PS4 and not PS4 + XB3 for convenience. I clearly mean 'next gen consoles from MS and Sony' in that comparison.

 

[bgassassin]

I can't see any reason to think it wouldn't be. I think it fair to say Nintendo have generally designed well balanced systems without an obvious gimpage. N64 had stupid memory limits, I guess, and perhaps one could say GC was a bit short on RAM too, but they've not done anything really stupid like stick a massive GPU on a tiddly little bus before now and have it BW starved. Where their hardware has been lacking is choice of components, not design. As such, if they put in a decent CPU and GPU this time around, I expect all the extras to be up the task. If we use such gross measures as multiples of a previous generation, if MS and Sony have a typical 10x increase from this gen to next, and Wuu only has a 2x increase over PS360, then Wuu will be 5x behind PS4*. If Nintendo go with 3x this gen (not implausible, with next-gen GPU and more RAM) then that places them ~3x behind PS4. The difference between PS4 and Wuu really can't be like the 10x difference between PS360 and Wii.

*Note I only use PS4 and not PS4 + XB3 for convenience. I clearly mean 'next gen consoles from MS and Sony' in that comparison.

I don't see any reason either, but with the level of pessimism we see at times you'd think Wii U was running on a mouse in a little squeaky hamster wheel.

But yeah my assessment would be the same as yours. What Nintendo does with the GPU and memory will determine how close or how far they end up.

 

[Arwin]

I don't know. Not once have I seen something from Nintendo that lived up to performance expectations even remotely but who knows. And I'm curious about the overhead for the controller. Even then, 25% performance would mean I was more right than wrong.

I think personally that a much more uncertain factor will be how far ms and sony are willing to take performance vs cost. Sony won't be able to go as far as last time, but may not have to. Microsoft may be more focussed on Kinect 2.0 than anything else.

 

[bgassassin]

I don't know. Not once have I seen something from Nintendo that lived up to performance expectations even remotely but who knows. And I'm curious about the overhead for the controller. Even then, 25% performance would mean I was more right than wrong.

I think personally that a much more uncertain factor will be how far ms and sony are willing to take performance vs cost. Sony won't be able to go as far as last time, but may not have to. Microsoft may be more focussed on Kinect 2.0 than anything else.

Well Wii U also has an ARM processor to help with the controller so there won't be much of a burden on the CPU/GPU.

And with the latter I've heard that amongst devs its debatable which one of the two is more powerful.

 

[manux]

For me it might be enough if nintendo has timed exclusivity for gtV and slightly better game compared to ps3/xbox360. I'm on the fence if I want to buy back into current gen or wait for whatever ms/sony has in store for next gen.

I'm not money constrained to get consoles. For me it's time, I DO NOT want to waste time to redundancy or same old, same old. Whatever gives me fresh stuff, I'm in for.

 

[TheWretched]

A timed exclusive of GTA will not happen. Not unless Nintendo basically buys Rockstar. That game is set out to sell 20 million units in an instant and Nintendo just cannot sell these many units of a new, expensive (supposedly?) console that fast. Some rumors even state that this time around the PC version might launch on time, too, which I'd appreciate... at least if the port is a bit better this time around than 4.