Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Blazkowicz]

I was just responding to your statement about flash performance vs HDD. Flash is faster. HDD's cannot compete vs SSD's on peformance.

Going by samsungs statements, SSD's could very well competee with HDD's on a large scale by 2011-12. They will not be cheaper than HDD's (eventually it will) per gigabyte, but they will be cheap enough for your average joe to buy one.

Considering how tremedously fast flash memory has gone down in price, (and we are not nowhere near the limits of cost reducting flash memory), it doesn't have to be to expensive in 4 years.

when will it get as cheap per gigabyte? that could only be on the long term, too far away to predict what the storage techs will be. for the foreseeable future magnetic will keep going on its parallel exponential curb, like it has been for decades with boths techs.
We're at 70€ for a 640GB drive

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Try 17 billion and over for this current year.

He is talking about the amount of Machines out there.

 

[archangelmorph]

He is talking about the amount of Machines out there.

The quantity of hardware is irrelevant if in general software sales continue to rise..

At the end of the day we're seeing much more software than ever before in so many shapes and forms (DD, retail-disc etc..) & added to that the overall increase in development costs being passe on to the consumer in the form of increased prices, there's far more money coming into this industry than ever before. That's what counts in the end.

Also don't forget that there are new platforms which, in terms of hardware aren't traditionally associated with this industry (cell phones etc..) but still bring in a ton of revenue for the same publishers who use it to make your Crysis's and your Final Fantasies.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

No argument from me there, I was just putting Proelite and Ostepop to the same "page"

 

[Rangers]

So, throwing out a memorysize, is 8GB RAM feasible in next gen machines?

I've been thinking the manufacturers will be conservative, and even though these machines will not be out for years, was looking at 2GB. But someone on another board tossed out 8GB and I have to admit it makes some sense.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I really don't see them going to 8GB with memory. I think the cost to benefit ratio will taper off past 2GB, so I'm hoping for 4, but still don't expect even that.

 

[Megadrive1988]

8 GB is probably the upper end of what's likely.

4 GB should be the minimum, though I wonder if we'll see one console with an odd amount like 3 GB or 5 GB.

Wii is odd since it's inbetween 64 and 128 MB, at 88 MB.



If next-gen Xbox/PlayStation come in at 2-3 GB and next-gen Nintendo comes in at more or less, 1 GB, that would also be interesting.

 

[eastmen]

He is talking about the amount of Machines out there.

well last generation weren't there over a 150m units ? Thats far more than the nes generation which i think didn't even hit 80m . this generation is already at close to 70m world wide right ? Xbox 360 is at 20m , wii is at 34m and ps3 is at 12m ? This holiday season will see at least 15m units sold between the 3 companys . As the ps3 and xbox 360 drop in price and the wii continues to sell like crazy the generation is only going to grow the market .

 

[wco81]

How would Nintendo differentiate a follow-up to the Wii?

Better graphics? There was always better graphics available.

A lot of people who bought the Wii believe their motions are being rendered onscreen.

Are they going to tell them, "No, you have to buy the Wii2 to get more accurate or 1:1 motion rendering?"

 

[thambos]

How would Nintendo differentiate a follow-up to the Wii?

Better graphics? There was always better graphics available.

A lot of people who bought the Wii believe their motions are being rendered onscreen.

Are they going to tell them, "No, you have to buy the Wii2 to get more accurate or 1:1 motion rendering?"

I think the next Nintendo console will be a little less powerful than the next Xbox. They certainly have enough $ now to put in some decent R&D.

I'd like the Wii2 to be capable of 1080p, at least for relatively simple renders. I dont see Nintendo going in the photorealistic extreme of future Xboxs or Playstations.

I'm probably wrong & Nintendo will stay one generation behind in graphics capability & continue to focus on more phsyical inputs. maybe eye tracking or full arm movement, possibly individual finger tracking w/ a new power glove.

 

[obonicus]

How would Nintendo differentiate a follow-up to the Wii?

Better graphics? There was always better graphics available.

A lot of people who bought the Wii believe their motions are being rendered onscreen.

Are they going to tell them, "No, you have to buy the Wii2 to get more accurate or 1:1 motion rendering?"

They already did that, with the motion plus.

But I don't think Nintendo will do it that way. The new audience they've reached aren't like us, obsessing over getting 'the best possible experience' from gaming. In fact, I wonder if they'll be able to milk their new franchises, like Wii Sports or Wii Fit like they do, say, Mario Kart.

If there's a new Wii, I do think it'll have things like an HDMI port (though not just HDMI, naturally), just because all new TVs are coming with them, and HDMI just simplifies things a lot. It may render at 720p, though I'm not sure that Nintendo will even have that as a selling point. I think it depends on the penetration of HDTV and terms like 'Full HD' in the mainstream. I don't think they'll want to have an architecture that's difficult to program for; they probably would want to do what they did this gen, and flood the market with games for their system. Not sure how they'd accomplish this, though, short of making their next system be another slight boost to the GC.

 

[Megadrive1988]

Forbes column on next-gen systems

Game machines typically are on the shelves for five or six years before a console manufacturer rolls out the next one. With the expense and success of this crop of systems--which have been out two to three years--it could be closer to eight years before we see the PlayStation 4, Xbox 720 and Nintendo "Us"--or whatever they end up being called.

"One of the things I like about this generation is we are still very early and there's still a lot of room for growth … as we move down those price curves," says Brian Farrell, CEO of THQ. "Those engines have a lot of steam left in them. We think it could be seven or eight years before new machines start to roll out."

Epic Games, maker of the hit "Gears of War" series, agrees. President Mike Capps recently said the company estimates new systems will not hit shelves until somewhere between 2012 and 2018.

On the hardware side, the battle seems to be focusing on graphics. Nvidia, which powers the PlayStation 3 and fueled the original Xbox, is showing its plans for the next generation to the console makers in an attempt to woo them. Intel, meanwhile, is pushing its Larrabee graphics processing unit, which it believes will unseat Nvidia from its leadership position.

Nvidia has the advantage of a proven history, but developers are curious about Larrabee--and eager to see if it can live up to Intel's boasts. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices, which bought graphics company ATI, is actively talking up its next-gen products with all three console makers as well.

 

[eastmen]

they will just make a wii hd. Perhaps take the current wii put it on 45nm and overclock it and add more ram. Then sell it at $250 with wii sports 3 .


For ms and sony i hope they have at least 4 gigs of ram. At 1080p i want alot of high res textures

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Epic Games, maker of the hit "Gears of War" series, agrees. President Mike Capps recently said the company estimates new systems will not hit shelves until somewhere between 2012 and 2018

He said that the next generation would exist between those years, expecting it to start around 2012.

 

[archangelmorph]

they will just make a wii hd. Perhaps take the current wii put it on 45nm and overclock it and add more ram. Then sell it at $250 with wii sports 3 .


For ms and sony i hope they have at least 4 gigs of ram. At 1080p i want alot of high res textures

From the looks of Uncharted & MGS4, you *really* don't need 8 gigs to get hi-res textures..

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What they really need is the tech to get variety of textures. Repeating texture patterns are still something of a bane this gen. Also gobs of RAM will enable every developer to get fabulous textures. If PS3 had 2 GBs of RAM, MGS4 probably wouldn't have so many blocky surfaces!

 

[AlNom]

Megatexture is supposed to solve the RAM problem though...

 

[DuckThor Evil]

well last generation weren't there over a 150m units ? Thats far more than the nes generation which i think didn't even hit 80m . this generation is already at close to 70m world wide right ? Xbox 360 is at 20m , wii is at 34m and ps3 is at 12m ? This holiday season will see at least 15m units sold between the 3 companys . As the ps3 and xbox 360 drop in price and the wii continues to sell like crazy the generation is only going to grow the market .

yep, I don't think his numbers were very accurate. Last gen is kind of hard to put on a exact number, as PS2 is still selling quite well and getting into some new markets, while at the same time many of the old PS2 consoles are inactive these days, but definately the number of consoles have increased as generation after generation, partly with new previously untapped markets becoming available and the old ones getting bigger.

 

[eastmen]

My friends adn I were talking about the hardrive installs for the 360. We've come to the conclusion that as long as MS puts in a huge hardrive (500 + gigs) it could stick with dvds .

I was wondering though , back in the cd rom days there was a drive called true x i believe. It would use two lasers to read the disc for faster speeds. The 52x verison could rip a cd rather quickly

wait here it is http://arstechnica.com/reviews/1q99/truex52-2.html

TrueX uses multiple beams (seven) to read multiple tracks of data at once. The result is a drive that spins at a much lower speed (1840-4800 RPM, according to Kenwood) while maintaining a high data transfer rate over the entire surface of the disc. Here's a nifty diagram:

If they could use this with dvds you could get a silent drive that will read discs faster than a 16 speed drive. Perhaps you can higher the rpms or use more beams and get even greater read speeds. Thus reducing install time greatly.


Or either company can use this on bluray drives.

 

[eastmen]

From the looks of Uncharted & MGS4, you *really* don't need 8 gigs to get hi-res textures..

You missed the part about alot of high res textures.

This current gen has alot of repeat textures . I haven't played enough of mgs4(hated it) but from the few hours i spent with uncharted you can see this in the game.

I'd love to see a next gen oblivion that has 8 gigs of textures.... well i guess they'd use a 1 gig of memory for other stuff but still even say 6 gigs of textures would be amazing to me .

2 gigs is only a 4x increase in ram capactiy. The xbox to xbox 360 was over an 8 times jump . The ps2- ps3 was even more. I believe 16 times ( 32 vs 512mbs) I mean we will most likely have 50 gigs of storage space on the disc. Why not use it for more than video . Why only displace 2 gigs of it at once