Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[clueless]

Usually the final specification are locked at least 6-8 months before launch. If MS is planning to launch in November 2011 (which seems likely to happen), the final specification will be locked during Spring 2011. By that time, Ati should have their new architecture out. So Xbox Next could have a tuned version of N.I or an improved RV870. If they launch in Nov. 2012, Xbox Next will have for sure a N.I derivate.


Let's put one thing clear. Next-gen console won't be enough powerfull to have realtime radiosity. But all the assets that will be developed for next-gen games, will be of CGI quality: high-resolution texture, models, shader. And one thing that next-gen must focus on is image quality: i rather have a slighly less complex engine, but without aliasing at all, and with awesome post-processing effects. So there are two aress were MS/Sony/etc engineers have to wrap their mind around are:

• Huge amount of bandwidth
• High amount of memory

I think both eDRAM and fast streaming are the proper way to resolve them. It will be nice to see how MS and Sony will use different technology and ideas. :smile:

thank you very much, now i have a mental image of what may come next gen (esp cgi quality).

 

[homerdog]

thank you very much, now i have a mental image of what may come next gen (esp cgi quality).

CGI quality assets maybe, but not lighting or image quality. CGI stuff is oversampled many times; it would not be practical to do that in realtime graphics.

Needless to say, you won't be seeing Avatar quality graphics on you Xbox 720.

 

[clueless]

CGI quality assets maybe, but not lighting or image quality. CGI stuff is oversampled many times; it would not be practical to do that in realtime graphics.

Needless to say, you won't be seeing Avatar quality graphics on you Xbox 720.

Yes. I know avatar quality is long off in the console realm and was not expecting that for any of the next gen consoles. I am guessing we will have tech that goes beyond crysis (maxed) with mod (lighting/tod).

 

[MarkoIt]

thank you very much, now i have a mental image of what may come next gen (esp cgi quality).

CGI quality assets doesn't mean CGI quality graphics. Animations,physics, and illumination will be still far from photorealistic: they require way too much computational power and a lot of know-how that still we don't have. We are around 10-15 years away from being capable of rendering a photorealistic world..

 

[clueless]

CGI quality assets doesn't mean CGI quality graphics. Animations,physics, and illumination will be still far from photorealistic: they require way too much computational power and a lot of know-how that still we don't have. We are around 10-15 years away from being capable of rendering a photorealistic world..

Ok thanks for clearing that up. I thought you meant cgi quality graphics (not Avatar quality but cgi of games this console gen).

 

[Carl B]

I don't think the term 'CGI quality' should be thrown around when talking about real-time graphics - every gen it bites back in the ass. Better to sub in an actual target film/etc to make the point than use CGI generally, as clearly CGI, just like computer graphics, is constantly advancing. Matching the CGI of 2006, for example, is different than matching the CGI of 2013.

 

[clueless]

I don't think the term 'CGI quality' should be thrown around when talking about real-time graphics - every gen it bites back in the ass. Better to sub in an actual target film/etc to make the point than use CGI generally, as clearly CGI, just like computer graphics, is constantly advancing. Matching the CGI of 2006, for example, is different than matching the CGI of 2013.

I agree with what you are saying but there are times in which In game does equal cgi (example the new spec ops game trailer was said to be all realtime yet i thought at first it was cgi).

 

[Carl B]

I agree with what you are saying but there are times in which In game does equal cgi (example the new spec ops game trailer was said to be all realtime yet i thought at first it was cgi).

I don't think you're catching my point.

 

[clueless]

I don't think you're catching my point.

I do understand your point because cgi is always advancing and it is near impossible to due everything in game.

 

[Carl B]

I do understand your point because cgi is always advancing and it is near impossible to due everything in game.

My point is that saying something looks 'CGI' doesn't mean anything, because what I consider that to be and what you consider that to be might be completely different - each of us having different criteria for what qualifies. Which is why I would prefer hard references, like: 'this matches Avatar,' or 'this matches low budget 3D anime.' Both CGI - both different and evoking different levels of visual fidelity and advancement.

 

[AlNom]

If MS is planning to launch in November 2011 (which seems likely to happen), the final specification will be locked during Spring 2011.

I have an issue with this statement because I don't know exactly to what you are referring with respect to 2011. Crytek and Epic have at least expressed 2012...

 

[clueless]

My point is that saying something looks 'CGI' doesn't mean anything, because what I consider that to be and what you consider that to be might be completely different - each of us having different criteria for what qualifies. Which is why I would prefer hard references, like: 'this matches Avatar,' or 'this matches low budget 3D anime.' Both CGI - both different and evoking different levels of visual fidelity and advancement.

Ok you have a point. I would have not considered 3d anime cgi.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Why not? In that case pixar movies etc also wouldnt be cgi while I think if you ask people about cgi the first thing that would spring to mind is probably pixar like movies.

 

[Carl B]

I would have not considered 3d anime cgi.

There's no need to - I was simply highlighting extremes. But to keep Avatar on the high end, sub in Toy Story on the low. They are worlds apart in terms of sophistication and fidelity - if you say CGI, do you mean Toy Story, or do you mean Avatar? And has a game 'achieved CGI' it if it surpasses that level on some criteria, but falls short on others?

I've always hated the term as being overly vague and loaded. If CGI to you means Avatar, I would ask that you say - "Will games match Avatar level CGI in real time?"

EDIT: Tongue_of_colicab beat me to the Toy Story inclusion!

 

[clueless]

There's no need to - I was simply highlighting extremes. But to keep Avatar on the high end, sub in Toy Story on the low. They are worlds apart in terms of sophistication and fidelity - if you say CGI, do you mean Toy Story, or do you mean Avatar? And has a game 'achieved CGI' it if it surpasses that level on some criteria, but falls short on others?

I've always hated the term as being overly vague and loaded. If CGI to you means Avatar, I would ask that you say - "Will games match Avatar level CGI in real time?"

EDIT: Tongue_of_colicab beat me to the Toy Story inclusion!

when you describe it in terms of high, med, low levels of cgi it truly makes it difficult to get someone excited in cgi level graphics.

BTW cgi to me means current gen (consoles games ex FF13 character detail in cgi videos).

As for toy story i guess for myself and some gamers it is overlooked (due to its art style).

 

[V3]

I would like to know if the next box will be equal to an ati 5970 or 2x that ?

also what kind of graphics can i expect from a $400 console in 2012?

Just look at 5970 power usage. Even if the shrunk it to 32 nm It's going to be very high still. For 2012, 5970 like performance is probably as much as you can hope for your typical console form factor.

Also can we even expect $400 console in 2012, considering inflation and all other sort of gadgets that need to be made standard next-gen ? like Natal for example or whatever is popular next gen. My feeling is to prepare for another $600 to $800 console SKUs at launch.

 

[clueless]

Why not? In that case pixar movies etc also wouldnt be cgi while I think if you ask people about cgi the first thing that would spring to mind is probably pixar like movies.

It is because i am a gamer(games > film, for myself), and the toy story characters do not seem very detailed vs the Nvidia Human head demo thing.

 

[clueless]

Just look at 5970 power usage. Even if the shrunk it to 32 nm It's going to be very high still. For 2012, 5970 like performance is probably as much as you can hope for your typical console form factor.

Also can we even expect $400 console in 2012, considering inflation and all other sort of gadgets that need to be made standard next-gen ? like Natal for example or whatever is popular next gen. My feeling is to prepare for another $600 to $800 console SKUs at launch.

Damn i was expecting 4x 5970 for next box in terms of late 2011 or early hidden/rumored 2012 console tech.

I forgot about the gpu size, heat, watt usage.

 

[AlNom]

Yeah.... die size... little big problem (LBP) :]

 

[clueless]

Yeah.... die size... little big problem (LBP) :]

that sucks but if it is big as the first xbox then i would have no problem.