Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[homerdog]

Gears of war looked fantastic on my 480p set. The artificial super sampling effect did some nice FSAA. In fact the game looked some what worse to me when I played it on my 720p set.

I ended up playing Eternal Sonata on my 32" 480i tube because I was madly distracted by teh jaggies my 720p LCD.

I personally can't stand the look of 1280x720 expanded past 32 inches. And I won't be able to bare another generation of it.

To be fair, you can't stand the look of a horribly aliased 720p image past 32 inches. With high quality FSAA (MSAA + some form of transparency AA, and something to take care of nasty shader aliasing) 720p can look really good.

But I still think 1080p should be the target next gen. I see the reasoning behind the 720p + loads of AA argument but it's easier to enforce a resolution standard than to require a bunch of AA techniques that may not be compatible across the board.

 

[AzBat]

Force the AA at the hardware level... pretty much solved then.

Tommy McClain

 

[Squilliam]

What do you guys think copenhagen is going to do for hardware specifications next generation? Is it likely we're going to see the first consoles with powerplay installed? Also I wonder how it might effect decisions for the overall power useage and performance of the console?

 

[3dilettante]

Even if Copenhagen lead to some kind of direct legislative action, I don't think it would be that important.

Consoles already have a power consumption cap due to size, price, noise, and reliability concerns. Power management and some deep idle states are already present in some form. The Wii has a very low idle state, and I think Cell and Xenon have some amount of power management already.

 

[eastmen]

It's 2x not 3.

Okay point still stands. Your going to need twice the shading power and twice the fillrate and so on to get to the same visuals as we have today but at 1080p.

Thats already a cut into what a future console can do visualy. sticking to 720p and you are already able to create a better image with just 2times the shader power.

The way fsaa is moving along on the pc I would expect some form of 8x fsaa to be viable on a console at 720p. perhaps 4x rotated grid with 2x aaa included.

 

[phenix]

By the time next generation consoles come up you will not be able to buy a 720p set which is larger than 40" maybe even 32". 1080p is a moniker that sells tv sets now and it may be a selling point for the games by the time the new consoles show up. It is a check-box feature that no console manufacturer would want to ignore. All the next generation consoles will support it and most of the developers will embrace it IMO.

 

[AzBat]

By the time next generation consoles come up you will not be able to buy a 720p set which is larger than 40" maybe even 32". 1080p is a moniker that sells tv sets now and it may be a selling point for the games by the time the new consoles show up. It is a check-box feature that no console manufacturer would want to ignore. All the next generation consoles will support it and most of the developers will embrace it IMO.

Twas the same argument before the 360 & PS3 were released about 720p being standard, but what we got was something between SDTV & 720p. Plus the realization that most people playing games don't even have an HDTV. I see the same thing happening next gen. 720p will probably be the sweet spot with 1080p getting a little more action.

Tommy McClain

 

[Sound_Card]

Aren't you going to be rendering almost 3x the pixels again. That would require a 3x leap in hardware power just to stay where we are at right now.

No I think 720p will be the standard with loads of fsaa .

It it really that much processing power to render 1080p over 720p. I highly think you are overstating it. Besides, look at xenos. It's 48 Alu's. We now have ATi GPU's with 320 ALU's. GPU's worlds above xenos in every regard. And who knows what kind of power we are talking about come 2011. Possibly 640 ALU part.

The hardware next generation is not going to be the problem. I think we should start focusing discussion on what advancements are going to be made in software as well as what standards could possibly be set or should set.

You can't just say 720p standard + say 4xAA or 8xAA(should be 8xAA considering the amount of people with big TV's with a small little 720p resolution be pulled to death). Not all devs implement AA in the same manner, nor do all devs support AA. Some even consider it artistic.

 

[corduroygt]

It it really that much processing power to render 1080p over 720p. I highly think you are overstating it. Besides, look at xenos. It's 48 Alu's. We now have ATi GPU's with 320 ALU's. GPU's worlds above xenos in every regard. And who knows what kind of power we are talking about come 2011. Possibly 640 ALU part.

And how do you plan on feeding and then dissipating 300W of power only from the GPU, in a cheap console, while still being quiet and reliable? Modern GPU's are fat bastards, and semiconductor technology isn't evolving as rapidly as it did in the turn of the millenium.

 

[Squilliam]

Even if Copenhagen lead to some kind of direct legislative action, I don't think it would be that important.

Consoles already have a power consumption cap due to size, price, noise, and reliability concerns. Power management and some deep idle states are already present in some form. The Wii has a very low idle state, and I think Cell and Xenon have some amount of power management already.

As far as the Wii is concerned, yes. However I haven't seen any real power management from either the PS3 or Xbox 360 and the load vs idle consumption figures are roughly 10-20% different. Europe I believe are already legislating against power hog TVs and it isn't really that much of a stretch for them to include other home electronics under an efficiency/power useage umbrella.

 

[Sound_Card]

And how do you plan on feeding and then dissipating 300W of power only from the GPU, in a cheap console, while still being quiet and reliable? Modern GPU's are fat bastards, and semiconductor technology isn't evolving as rapidly as it did in the turn of the millenium.

I don't expect more then 100w(20w idle) from the GPU alone in the next consoles(PS4, xbox 1080), but I do expect 8-10x the processing power.

 

[Xenus]

You are forgetting the consoles aren't coming out now. Earliest likely is probably a year and a half to 2 years from now that's plenty of time to get similar performance without being as power hungry especially if they decide to cut DP for the consoles.

 

[corduroygt]

Just saying...from 2000-2004, ps2 slim went from 250nm to 90nm, from 2005-2009, consoles went from 90nm to just 65nm, with only the cell being at 45nm.

 

[eastmen]

It it really that much processing power to render 1080p over 720p. I highly think you are overstating it. Besides, look at xenos. It's 48 Alu's. We now have ATi GPU's with 320 ALU's. GPU's worlds above xenos in every regard. And who knows what kind of power we are talking about come 2011. Possibly 640 ALU part.

Well to render a game with the same fidelity as an xbox 360 game but at 1080p you'd need to double the xenos. You'd need 8rops , 96 alus and 20megs of edram. Thats just the parts i know about So you'd already need that just to stay at the same fidelity. Now we know that the most popular game this gen actually runs at a lower res than 720p. So to do cod mw 2 you'd need even more power just to render at 1080p

But next gen assuming they go with 720p again. Even a simple trippling of edram would give them a much nicer pad for Fsaa. I'm not sure of the math but a 4x fsaa with an fp 10 format. 8x should fit into two tiles in that case. A larger edram pool and you can fit higher amounts of fsaa

The hardware next generation is not going to be the problem. I think we should start focusing discussion on what advancements are going to be made in software as well as what standards could possibly be set or should set.

depends . I don't think we are going to get a radeon 5890 in the case. I think next gen they may balance things out alot more and start smaller instead of where they are at now

You can't just say 720p standard + say 4xAA or 8xAA(should be 8xAA considering the amount of people with big TV's with a small little 720p resolution be pulled to death). Not all devs implement AA in the same manner, nor do all devs support AA. Some even consider it artistic.

Whats the big deal with them investing some hardware space for another scaler chip what do they have now hana or something ? I'm sure a next gen hana would easily be able to take a nice 720p 8x fsaa and upconvert it to 1080p .

The problem is while the next 2 years we will see tvs that have 1080p with 240fps and this and that , there are still a slew of hd tvs sold in the last 10 years that are 720p. They are still selling 720p tvs and considering there are still many people playing on sd tv it may be a bit soon to go up to 1080p .

 

[eastmen]

As far as the Wii is concerned, yes. However I haven't seen any real power management from either the PS3 or Xbox 360 and the load vs idle consumption figures are roughly 10-20% different. Europe I believe are already legislating against power hog TVs and it isn't really that much of a stretch for them to include other home electronics under an efficiency/power useage umbrella.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=49447&highlight=gen+console+power+draw

you can see big diffrences from playing a game to watching a movie.

Anyway I'm sure next gen video playback and other things will be so trival that alot of cores and portions of the gpu can be shut down while doing it.

But thats neither here nor there

You are forgetting the consoles aren't coming out now. Earliest likely is probably a year and a half to 2 years from now that's plenty of time to get similar performance without being as power hungry especially if they decide to cut DP for the consoles.

ati card are already on 40nm . Whats next 32nm ... 22nm ? 11nm ? If they launch at 32nm where do they go.

As someone pointed out the 360 and ps3 are still largely 65nm chips except hte cell. They have dropped 1 micron process in 3 years.

I suspect a console in 2011 from ms so I'd put them at 32nm. So figure they get a drop to 22nm and then mabye 11nm. Not much improvement there just from droping micron sizes. Also from the radeon 58x0 series to ms's and sonys next gen part may only be one process shrink away from each other.

 

[Prophecy2k]

With Sony's big push for 3D Blu-Ray and 3D gaming beginning next, and presumably carrying on through into the forseeable future, I can see Sony gunning for something big HW-wise for PS4.

Sony should really target 1080p60fps gaming for PS4, which will comfortably allows devs to do 1080p 30fps 3D games and 1080p60fps 2D games. I also don't expect MS to sit down idle in this regard and so I'd say that we might be pleasantly surprised by how far the envelope is pushed next gen

 

[Phil]

I agree - there should be a policy that forces devs to target 60 fps in all games, irregardless of what kind of games they are (avoid any grey areas or loop holes). If each and every developer has to concentrate on delivering a smooth and constant 60 fps experience, there will be no reason for them to go for lower framerates in order to achieve parity on the visuals. And if everyone goes for the same framerate, the visuals should be comparable to a degree.

I have high hopes for next generation in regards to this. This generation has been a huge disappointment in regards to framerate, but I somewhat understand that the step to HD resolutions has been a challenge and additional strain on the hardware. Since Full-HD (1080p) resolution is here to stay with us for a while, I hope that we can expect better framerates in future generation consoles.

 

[corduroygt]

60 hz is wasted on rpg's and strategy games. However they could force it for shooters, sims and fighters maybe even platformers

 

[msia2k75]

I agree - there should be a policy that forces devs to target 60 fps in all games, irregardless of what kind of games they are (avoid any grey areas or loop holes). If each and every developer has to concentrate on delivering a smooth and constant 60 fps experience, there will be no reason for them to go for lower framerates in order to achieve parity on the visuals. And if everyone goes for the same framerate, the visuals should be comparable to a degree.

I have high hopes for next generation in regards to this. This generation has been a huge disappointment in regards to framerate, but I somewhat understand that the step to HD resolutions has been a challenge and additional strain on the hardware. Since Full-HD (1080p) resolution is here to stay with us for a while, I hope that we can expect better framerates in future generation consoles.

Is this a joke?
Well prepare yourself to be even more disappoinited because i expect to get less and less 60fps games.

 

[dobwal]

Is this a joke?
Well prepare yourself to be even more disappoinited because i expect to get less and less 60fps games.

If next gen goes 3D stereoscopic then by necessity aren't all games going to have to target close to 60fps?

If the average game today is 720p at an average of 30fps, then wouldn't it take ~4X the processing to push the same scene at 1080p at 60fps? Seems like you don't get much for the power required.