Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[archangelmorph]

Unlikely because not all countries (unfortunately) even have 1mbps internet speed.....lest even broadband connection at all for that matter (shitty dialup).

So yeah, until then, I can't see game consoles moving to internet downloads (or game streaming) for that matter.

Wireless Broadband is the key IMO..

With wireless speeds increasing & service providers introducing ever more options with respect to ubiquitous connections (USB broadband modems for example) there's a high chance that in the next several years inet penetration is going to skyrocket (particularly with respect to developing areas)..

Whether it'll be sufficient enough to validate a disc-free entertainment platform however is another matter (Phantom proved, however terribly, just how much the world isn't ready for it so far..)

 

[hoho]

Considering that duallayer DVD is a bit small by even todays standards I don't think downloading could be the main source of games. With 10Mbit constant downstream one can download 10GB of data in around 2.5h. In 3-4 years 10GB will likely be the lower limit of game size and 25+ is much more common.

Of course there is the possibility with some games that you download small part of the game that allows you to start playing it and keeps on downloading in background. Though considering the sizes of some game demos I don't think that helps that much.

Also there is that little problem that when you don't sell boxed games in the same shops as you sell your consoles then shop keepers will want to earn much more from the HW sales than they are doing now (<5%).

Of course it would be nice if it was offered as an alternative to disks, not as primary/only method. I wouldn't mind waiting for a few hours (one night) to get a game if it means I don't have to order it from another country (games in Estonia cost more than ordering them from UK).

 

[kyetech]

Can we get back on topic, or spin a new thread for storage.

Thanks.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Unlikely because not all countries (unfortunately) even have 1mbps internet speed.....lest even broadband connection at all for that matter (shitty dialup).

So yeah, until then, I can't see game consoles moving to internet downloads (or game streaming) for that matter.

Those countries don't provide enough revenue to cater to. Digital download will happen regardless of the internet infrastruction of poor nations.

 

[archangelmorph]

Those countries don't provide enough revenue to cater to. Digital download will happen regardless of the internet infrastruction of poor nations.

Who said they're all poor nations?

I know several parts of the UK even with pretty piss poor internet infrastructure..

I'm sure there are many more regions like these in most countries all over the world..

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Who said they're all poor nations?

I know several parts of the UK even with pretty piss poor internet infrastructure..

I'm sure there are many more regions like these in most countries all over the world..

Sure there are *parts* of countries that have poor internet infrastructure, usually these are rather rural (and/or poor) areas wherein the people aren't in the "gamer" demographic to begin with, and even they did want to play games they probably don't have the money to do so.

 

[AlNom]

So yeah, until then, I can't see game consoles moving to internet downloads (or game streaming) for that matter.

I wouldn't rule it out entirely; both will co-exist. Steam is a pretty good example for online digital distribution (ODD!). And Microsoft seems to be paving the way towards it with their Xbox Originals (in that they are multi-gigabyte downloads).

Regardless of networking infrastructure, ODD provides an alternative means of purchasing content and an opportunity to offer slightly lower prices or bundles of sorts that may encourage such purchasing.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sure there are *parts* of countries that have poor internet infrastructure, usually these are rather rural (and/or poor) areas...

Nope. I'm in Surrey, in one of the most affluent parts of Europe, in one of the most densely populated parts of the world, a bus journey away from the main South East train route into London, in a village with a lot of overpriced houses including millionaire jobbies (which is a 3 bed semi in this part of the world ). I'm on a 2 Mbit connection, no cable options, and we have to pay £11 per month to BT for the rental of the phone line because the exchange hasn't been updated (whatever that means) and BT's monopoly means they can demand whatever the heckers they like for us just to even get communications with the rest of the world. 5 miles down the road in a slightly more rural area, certainly less posh, they have the choice of cable companies, phone providers and faster broadband options, and have had this for at least five years. Infrastructure is basically a joke in the UK since they privatised it all and companies battle over some areas while ignoring others. There's no plan to roll out useful services nationwide. Mainstream download only will remain a pipe-dream in the UK as long as the comms companies can't get their act together.

The idea that countries have good infrastructure in the most places, ready for download services, would need a lot of substantiation for me to accept it. AFAICS you can rely on major cities to be well served, but they're still going to represent a limited portion of the market depending on nation and how much population is sprawl or metropolitan.

@ kyetech : I think at the moment storage discussion is valid debate as the topic is the next-gen hardware, which includes storage. Choice of storage device, HD disc, holographic storage, flash or downloads, is part of the question of what we'll see in the next round of hardwares.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Nope. I'm in Surrey, in one of the most affluent parts of Europe, in one of the most densely populated parts of the world, a bus journey away from the main South East train route into London, in a village with a lot of overpriced houses including millionaire jobbies (which is a 3 bed semi in this part of the world ). I'm on a 2 Mbit connection, no cable options, and we have to pay £11 per month to BT for the rental of the phone line because the exchange hasn't been updated (whatever that means) and BT's monopoly means they can demand whatever the heckers they like for us just to even get communications with the rest of the world. 5 miles down the road in a slightly more rural area, certainly less posh, they have the choice of cable companies, phone providers and faster broadband options, and have had this for at least five years. Infrastructure is basically a joke in the UK since they privatised it all and companies battle over some areas while ignoring others. There's no plan to roll out useful services nationwide. Mainstream download only will remain a pipe-dream in the UK as long as the comms companies can't get their act together.

The idea that countries have good infrastructure in the most places, ready for download services, would need a lot of substantiation for me to accept it. AFAICS you can rely on major cities to be well served, but they're still going to represent a limited portion of the market depending on nation and how much population is sprawl or metropolitan.

@ kyetech : I think at the moment storage discussion is valid debate as the topic is the next-gen hardware, which includes storage. Choice of storage device, HD disc, holographic storage, flash or downloads, is part of the question of what we'll see in the next round of hardwares.

Here's the thing: you're in the minority, and thus unimportant to any company wanting to develop a digital distribution system. Did Valve decide not to release Steam because there's no broadband in Africa? Did Steam fail for the same reason? Clearly the answer is no. DD is the future.

 

[sunscar]

Has anybody thought about the recoil a fully digital distribution method would cause throughout the current *hardware* distribution industry? Strikes me as pseudo-counterintuitive. Companies such as Gamestop, are a huge source of sales for hardware units, but they make a vasy portion of their revenue based on used games - Without that revenue, they'd go under or demand considerable recompense on peripherals, systems, guides, etcetera - far in excess of what they have to demand today. That's a dangerous gamble, but the alternative is worse, still. Without any form of recompense, a distributor of this type would be forced to keep a smaller stock of systems, or adobt a scan-base sales approach - Either way it means less systems on hand and less sold. It could strangle the entire industry, damn near to death.

 

[almighty]

IMO, i dont think there will be GPU's as we know it... software rendering is coming back baby

 

[Acert93]

Who said they're all poor nations?

I know several parts of the UK even with pretty piss poor internet infrastructure..

I'm sure there are many more regions like these in most countries all over the world..

Like the US. Quite contrary to what others may have opinioned, the reality in the US is that "last mile" infastructure is really poor. The US is very sprawling, more so than most other nations due to the population density. Further, in many metropolitan areas a segment of people with wealth gravitate to the edges of urban sprawl (i.e. the people in the sticks aren't poor smucks that can be ignored as someone deposited).

I have lived in areas on the West Coast, Midwest, and East Coast now where a about half of the population is outside the city proper and has had no broadband access. Broadband continues to grow in the US, but it is slowing down due to the very high cost of offering connectivity to the last mile consumers. Running cable/fiber for an area where you lay a half mile between each potential consumer is prohibative.

Here's the thing: you're in the minority, and thus unimportant to any company wanting to develop a digital distribution system. Did Valve decide not to release Steam because there's no broadband in Africa? Did Steam fail for the same reason? Clearly the answer is no. DD is the future.

The last thing a console market wants to do is castrate 40% of the market due to non-access. Not only have you shrunk your potential consumer pool, you have PR negativity as well as the negative "friend" element. If your friend(s) cannot even use a product that can have a negative cyclical effect as they are forced to pick up the competition.

I am all for ODD. Exclusive ODD with the "screw the non-broadband consumers" is a recipe for failure. To believe this is a small, unimportant market would be mistaken. Even the 360, with its high rate of online activity, is mostly populated with Silver users and a much, much smaller contingent of Gold users. The PS3 and Wii are even weaker here.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a system like this:

A two SKU platform, e.g. "Xbox 3 Broadband" with large HDD and "Xbox 3 Basic". The Broadband version would target ODD with games at $60, and both SKU could also use retail disk games at a premium $70. Motivating/enticing gamers to ODD, which is profitable for the companies as well, while not ignoring the traditional market (both retail power as well as consumers not receptive to ODD) would be the first step IMO.

 

[V3]

Any company going with optical media is going to have to address the transfer rate issues. On the hardware side a HDD (for content install) and a fairly large flash based intermediate cache seem like no brainers, although HDD costs will be a concern. On the software side the trend toward content generation created at loadtime as well as dynamic technologies may help alleviate some of the issues.

It is interesting seeing how some areas of technology progress at different paces. Addressing the correct issues to get the best end result for your buck is going to be interesting to watch as it unfolds.

What about doing what Nintendo did with Gamecube by having the cheap A-RAM pool to speed up loading. But I reckon HDD is no brainer, the cost of HDD will be worth it and recoup with the downloadable content market it generates.

 

[kyetech]

@ kyetech : I think at the moment storage discussion is valid debate as the topic is the next-gen hardware, which includes storage. Choice of storage device, HD disc, holographic storage, flash or downloads, is part of the question of what we'll see in the next round of hardwares.

True, the title has 'etc' in it which I missed... ha. sorry. thought it was just GPU's.

So when 4G rolls out in around 2011 - 2013 will that be quick enough for download services in games. Since that will eliminate the issue of needing the cable/fibre optic infrastructures. and will run at around 100 - 150mb per second?

Anyway, there is no way any ultra wide internet service will be around soon enough for next gen, so, Im sure we can rule that option out.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

I never said retail distribution was going to disappear. Just that DD is the future and will eventually account for the majority of game sales.

 

[....]

I just hope next-gen consoles(at least some of them) don't come in like 8-9 years. So that we get holographic media, and silicon close to the physical limits.

 

[hoho]

Since that will eliminate the issue of needing the cable/fibre optic infrastructures. and will run at around 100 - 150mb per second?

I highly doubt 4G would be usable in anywhere but big cities for a long time. 3G is pretty old and how good coverage does it have? Things like WiMax are nice and provide huge land coverage but lack severely in throughput. You can never put as much data "in air" as you can in a wire/fibre.


I wonder how much use would future consoles have from few gigs of SSD? They'll likely have HDD's and optical drives but not too much RAM I'd say 2-4GB max. Add in around 2-4GB SSD with low latency (compared to spinning disks) and half-decent throughput (100MB/s+) it should work quite well for caching. Much better than HDDs today. Would that work or would regular (dirt-cheap) DDR2/3 be better overall (cheaper, less wiring)?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I never said retail distribution was going to disappear. Just that DD is the future and will eventually account for the majority of game sales.

I can agree with that. It's just that I peg that future as many years off, and not just next gen. CDs still sell en masse despite downloadable music being around for ages. The option may be introduced next gen, but most game sales will be on media IMO.

 

[sunscar]

I just hope next-gen consoles(at least some of them) don't come in like 8-9 years. So that we get holographic media, and silicon close to the physical limits.

We could round that to ten years, when they'll likely have something comparable, anyway. It's pretty much set in stone that we'll see new systems around four and five years from now, and another five-ish years after that (By which time Holo-Optical Disks may be a mainstream reality). Hard to think that by the time that rolls around, a home gaming system may, in many ways, be roughly one-tenth as fast as the IBM RoadRunner system coming online at LANL.

 

[Oblivion]

Arghhhhh! Okay, I'll ask one more time, and maybe SOMEBODY will respond.

Regarding what Nintendo could possibly do in the future, is there a possibility that the advancement of hardware tech will make sure Nintendo doesn't do a Wii turbo next time around (similar to GC > Wii)? To clarify, what I mean is, I've heard that as time goes on, older components turn out to be more expensive to manufacture than newer ones (I heard something about GDDR3 RAM being cheaper than GDDR2 for example).

Is that really how it works? And if so, how big could the next upgrade be if one reasonably assumes that Nintendo goes for the cheapest possible?