Predict: Next gen console tech (10th generation edition) [2028+]

The rumor of Arm next xbox may be a hint that a handheld console like Switch may release.
Moving to ARM will not be a magic bullet in terms of power cwnutmpin if you expect the next Xbox to run all of the x64 games already released, whilst most CPUs having instructions designed to making emulating other architectures more efficient, an ARM chip that is capable of emulating 16 x64 threads for games running on Xbox Series is a big, big ask.
 
The jump from base Xbox One to Xbox Series x was pretty substantial. Teraflops increased from 1.31 to 12.15. The CPU also a large jump.
True! Unfortunately the amount of memory only doubled. Next gen will require more than doubling the size of memory. 32GB wont cut it.
 
Apple systems are designed around the optimal daily user experience, not for PC/console games or even high-end professional/productivity applications. Qualcomm already has a few products with Windows on ARM and much of the general public are sleeping on them. Microsoft customer =/= Apple customer

I can see how AMD would be perfectly content with just "standing around" since they already have a good thing on and their current CEO cancelled their only ARM CPU project. As for Nvidia, it's totally up to them if they want to risk losing their entire PC gaming market by tying in their GPUs to their in-house CPUs ...
Its going to be a no for me dawg. Apple products dominate Music and film production, Research, Software development, to mention but a few.

They're fine for artists, web development, and mobile apps but not so much for data scientists (AI/ML), programmers (visual studio), or other productivity apps (CAD/simulation software) ...
What?? I used to go to a weekly Python meet up at the Microsoft office in Times Square filled with data scientists. I could barely see anything other than a Mac. Same goes for when I was in school taking CS classes and same today with work. Apple products are also preferred by architects who use AUTOCAD and other similar software. Go to any major architectural firm and tell me what company provides most of their computers.
 
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I meant more for developing richer denser worlds. Developers are going to ask for a lot more memory for the next gen considering the ideas they have. 32GB is just not enough at all.
Again, better streaming should make that irrelevant. There's only so much you can see at a given moment. Perfect JIT loading moves the pressure off RAM and onto storage.
 
Again, better streaming should make that irrelevant. There's only so much you can see at a given moment. Perfect JIT loading moves the pressure off RAM and onto storage.
Ooooh okay I get you now. You're very right in the sense better texture streaming for example you can do more with the same amount of RAM. But again It depends on how dense and rich the environments are going to be or what kind of game or idea the developer will be pursuing. In consultations with developers for the next gen, obviously the required figure for the amount of memory for next gen will be ascertained. Off the top of my head I think 32GB isnt enough, but to be honest I dont have anything to back that up besides past years where we saw much larger jumps in memory(Going from 5MB on PS1 to 40MB PS2 games to 512MB on the Xbox 360 to 8GB on PS4). It will come down to consultations with developers.
 
I meant more for developing richer denser worlds. Developers are going to ask for a lot more memory for the next gen considering the ideas they have. 32GB is just not enough at all.
I think that next gen consoles will get no more than 32GB, memory isn't really a bottleneck anymore and textures are easily scalable.
Who knows, maybe we will get 16GB of GDDR memory + 4GB of DDR memory for the OS to contain costs.
Unless we want 600€ or more consoles at day one.
 
I think that next gen consoles will get no more than 32GB, memory isn't really a bottleneck anymore and textures are easily scalable.
Who knows, maybe we will get 16GB of GDDR memory + 4GB of DDR memory for the OS to contain costs.
Unless we want 600€ or more consoles at day one.
I think its safe to say 32GB is the minimum and it will be GDDR7 looking at Micron's roadmap. 32GB of GDDR7 on next gen wont be a significant cost at all in 2028, especially compared to the BOM of the PS5 and Series X where they had to pay over $100 for the SSDs initially. That cost's now half of that or even less, possibly paying $50 per console for 1TB storage. So I wonder what they'll invest the most amount in next time. Something that can see cost reductions over the lifetime of the console. And memory is something that comes to mind. Other thing is the APU of course.
 
Doubling of memory for next gen is reasonable. Tripling or quadrupling I don't see being economically feasible without severely degrading other areas. A large increase in bandwidth would also be lovely.

And as others have said streaming will continue playing its role. It's possible we could see next gen consoles with read speeds greater than 10 GB/s. I just hope by then streaming becomes far more prevalent so it can be taken advantage of in more ways. Hopefully by end of current gen.
 
I think its safe to say 32GB is the minimum and it will be GDDR7 looking at Micron's roadmap. 32GB of GDDR7 on next gen wont be a significant cost at all in 2028, especially compared to the BOM of the PS5 and Series X where they had to pay over $100 for the SSDs initially. That cost's now half of that or even less, possibly paying $50 per console for 1TB storage. So I wonder what they'll invest the most amount in next time. Something that can see cost reductions over the lifetime of the console. And memory is something that comes to mind. Other thing is the APU of course.
I'm kind of pessimistic on price reductions on silicon and memory going forward, so if 32gb of gddr7 aren't the same price as 16 gb of gddr6 were in 2020, I don't know if they can include it in a console. There's stuff like rt cores and ai cores which I think are a certainty, since they don't occupy too much area on the chip, but things that could be too costly are going to be axed in search of lower costs.


Articles like this scare me :runaway:
All this above applies to mid gen consoles as well \:
 
Its going to be a no for me dawg. Apple products dominate Music and film production, Research, Software development, to mention but a few.
My last response on the subject ...

Again Apple products are fine for the artists but limitations become apparent elsewhere ...
What?? I used to go to a weekly Python meet up at the Microsoft office in Times Square filled with data scientists. I could barely see anything other than a Mac. Same goes for when I was in school taking CS classes and same today with work. Apple products are also preferred by architects who use AUTOCAD and other similar software. Go to any major architectural firm and tell me what company provides most of their computers.
Some data scientists might be fine with using a cloud-based solution on their client machine which includes Apple devices but Apple customers don't have feature parity with other systems (Windows/Linux) when it comes to running frame works locally like PyTorch. While AutoCAD is supported on the latest Apple systems, you can't present the same case with SolidWorks or other Autodesk products/services ...

As for CS classes, good luck to anyone learning operating systems that requires them to run x86 virtual machines. They don't really teach this in academia but if you've seen how complex many C++ projects can become, visual studio IDE becomes the clear favourite IDE among professional developers working on large code bases. Software developers only tolerate abominations like Xcode so that they can release their applications on iOS ...
 
Quoting this just to acknowledge and preserve the most fabulous typo ever, which are becoming rarer thanks to autocorrect. :mrgreen:

Cwnutmpin (kwer-nut-em-pin) deserves its own technical definition.

Cwnutmpin (Kwer-nut-em-pin): A term developed by engineering physicist and pulitzer prize author DSoup, used to describe electronics having the munchies.
 
I'm kind of pessimistic on price reductions on silicon and memory going forward, so if 32gb of gddr7 aren't the same price as 16 gb of gddr6 were in 2020, I don't know if they can include it in a console. There's stuff like rt cores and ai cores which I think are a certainty, since they don't occupy too much area on the chip, but things that could be too costly are going to be axed in search of lower costs.


Articles like this scare me :runaway:
All this above applies to mid gen consoles as well \:
interesting read thanks for sharing!!
 
If I'm a console manufacturer, at this point I'm thinking of how I can separate my product from the competition in ways that has less to do with overall GPU power.

Power limits are going up
Efficiency is going down
Cooling will become an issue
Perf increase is shrinking
Game budgets are exploding

Ultimately it doesn't matter where consoles fall on the PC GPU level chart. What matters is how they differentiate themselves from the product which came before it.

I'd put more emphasis on CPU and Memory/bandwidth and console features...than trying to reach some arbitrary PC level equivalent. Focus on the user side aspect. Make things as seamless and convenient as possible for the player. I'd also try to differentiate my console through the controller and innovate in that area as much as possible. Try to find a way to create new experiences through what is made possible by the controller.

Nintendo, for as much as they've failed and succeeded in the past... always tried to innovate and separate themselves from the others in that way. They understood the importance of differentiating themselves from the rest of the competition. They didn't want to continue chasing the power crown, so they changed it up and focused on other aspects, and carved out their own path. I think that new consoles should focus more on what can make their individual boxes unique, rather than pushing for "just a bit more than the competition" of what they both share in common..

I really do truly think that mid-gen console updates greatly lessen the impact of a new generation.
 
Ooooh okay I get you now. You're very right in the sense better texture streaming for example you can do more with the same amount of RAM. But again It depends on how dense and rich the environments are going to be or what kind of game or idea the developer will be pursuing. In consultations with developers for the next gen, obviously the required figure for the amount of memory for next gen will be ascertained. Off the top of my head I think 32GB isnt enough, but to be honest I dont have anything to back that up besides past years where we saw much larger jumps in memory(Going from 5MB on PS1 to 40MB PS2 games to 512MB on the Xbox 360 to 8GB on PS4). It will come down to consultations with developers.

Those jumps were because bit/$ scaling was still very high back then but that's slowed down tremendously. There's a reason why memory only jumped x2 this generation, and barring some industry disrupting event I don't know what would reverse this trend. If anything even 32GB may not be a given. There's a reason why DRAM manufacturers (DDR5 shipping, GDDR7 road mapped) non powers of 2 DRAM, which wouldn't be needed if they felt just another straight doubling was easily possible.

202008180215571.jpg
 
However x86 CPUs are still the major processors of PCs in next 15 years. Why chooses ARM for the new home console?

Unless ms wants a handheld console, too.

There's a single point in ARMs favor when it comes to CPUs, in that all instructions are the same length, which makes it much easier to make a "wider" CPU (one that can execute more instructions at the same time) than with x86's variable length instructions, which start to become really complicated to handle at a point we arrived at for modern CPU designs just a few years ago.

However x86 to ARM translation is really complicated even for generic OS's like Windows or MacOS, for highly platform targeted games like consoles it may be impossible for practical (profitable) purposes at this point. And I'd suspect backwards compatibility is going to be even more important going into "next gen". Thus I'd severely doubt any switch to ARM on the part of Sony or Microsoft.
 
Those jumps were because bit/$ scaling was still very high back then but that's slowed down tremendously. There's a reason why memory only jumped x2 this generation, and barring some industry disrupting event I don't know what would reverse this trend. If anything even 32GB may not be a given. There's a reason why DRAM manufacturers (DDR5 shipping, GDDR7 road mapped) non powers of 2 DRAM, which wouldn't be needed if they felt just another straight doubling was easily possible.

202008180215571.jpg
At this point RAM only needs to hold the working set of data, and a relatively minimal one at that, the need to preload data you might need next frame or a few after that is getting lower and lower (thanks super fast SSDs!). I don't see a particular advantage to going beyond maybe, 20-24gb for any next gen console no matter how fast.
 
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