Post Xbox One Two Scorpio, what should Sony do next? *spawn* (oh, and Nintendo?)

[davygee]

There is no way we can predict sales of the Neo or Scorpio seeing as first and foremost, we do not know fully what they can do and how much they will cost. But if we go by rumoured specs, then we can guesstimate that the Neo will be the 4.2tf/Jaguar version of the PS4 and will probably come in at $399. The Scorpio will be the 6tf/Zen version of the One and will come in at anywhere from $499-$599.

Again, going on assumptions here and best case scenario, the Neo will release in November 2016 @ $399 while the Scorpio will release in November 2017 @ $499.

Sales of these news units, IMHO will not be high. Both are supposedly being slated as mid-term refreshes, although I disagree with the Scorpio being that, I reckon the Scorpio is the Xbox Two with backwards compatibility. Once the Scorpio releases in Nov 2017, I fully expect the Xbox One S to start @ $249, the PS4 @ $249 and the Neo @ $349. The PS4/Neo market share will be much bigger than the Xbox share. I fully expect the PS4/Neo share to be 70-80m units WW while the Xbox One will be maybe 30-35m.

If like has been mentioned that the Neo and Scorpio are mid-term refreshes, then they will be superceded by a full generation release in 2019 (Sony) & 2020 (Microsoft). Most of the Playstation sales will still be the PS4 rather than the Neo, but reckon we will see sales ratio's change over the Neo's lifespan, initially 75/25 in PS4's favour in 2017, changing to 50/50 in late 2018. Both the Neo & Scorpio will be on the market for 3-4 years before they see their successor and I would be surprised to see more than 20m units each.

All of the above is assumptions based on rumoured specs and pricing.

In short, Sony is playing it safe by releasing the lower specced Neo this year and helping the Playstation brand exponentially increase in sales over the 1 year head start they have over the Scorpio. Microsoft on the other hand don't want to be the underdog next time and have announced the Scorpio, I think intentially to unsettle Sony. The Scorpio in the short term will be held back by the need to run the same games as the One, unless MS pull a fast one and start announcing Scorpio exclusive versions of their games.

 

[temesgen]

So like I said , the ps4 will be an under performing product because it will never sell a 150m units like the ps2 did.

Its already getting a replacement in the ps4 Neo and after that a PS5.

Don't see the point of the comment ? The ps2 existed at a different time and market conditions. Just like the xbox one exists at a different time and market conditions than the xbox 360. Scorpio will be an even bigger change than the xbox one or 360 generation. comparing them wont work. If MS can sell 10s of millions of Scorpio its not a problem.

Also we haven't seen the full path of Xbox one family. I truly believe they will get it down to Compute Stick levels.

Please stop calling NEO a PS4 replacement, that's a false narrative....

As you say PS2 existed in a different time, I doubt any of of these platforms move that many units unless we see a small streaming box that is cheap, provides a very low lag experience and offers other services like Netflix and access to a good library of games.

I think Scorpio is better positioned than NEO to some extent for upgraded visuals bc developers can leverage the work they already need to do for the PC version to justify improved visuals for Scorpio so even if Scorpio has a relatively low adoption rate it's work they'd already be doing. NEO OTOH adds to developer work load and if Sony only ends up moving 5 to 10 million units there very well could be some blow back. In any case I'd be surprised if either competes with PS4 for raw numbers this generation even if Scorpio's numbers matter less bc of the cross platform situation.

 

[Jubei]

For Sony its not just a more powerful console. Its also a more powerful console + psvr and if we believe them then a PS5 is coming around the corner too.


Anyway , I am a big pc gamer and I love it. But you can look at my gf. She loves civ but her pc is years old , she doesn't want to drop $450 on a 1070 or $600 on a 1080. We are going to get her a RX 480 to replace her r 6950 (which was mine at one point) . For her , she loves to play on the xbox one , she plays garden war fare 2 a ton , she also just got into star wars battle front.

Take my nephew . He is 7 and just starting to get into real gaming. He isn't going game on a desktop pc, he sits on the couch in his parents den and plays on his xbox one .

Then I have a cousin who has an xbox one and a decent pc (radeon 7850) but he still does 90% of his gaming on his console.


We would all love to play with each other , my cousin wants me to build him a new pc next year. So he will play on pc , but his gf will use his xbox one , my gf on her xbox one and my nephew on his xbox one with me along on my pc. We will all be playing Sea of Theives together.

That is the magic of what MS is doing. You can play with any set up you want.


Yes sony has some exclusive games that are popular. But even if MS sells 40 or 50m Scorpios their first party developers will have an even larger platform to target so we can see MS expand their development. Even 3rd parties will be happy since they can target Scorpio and expand upwards for pc gaming and a 6Tflop card from AMD is right around the corner at the $300 price mark at this point .

They wont sell you an xbox live subscription. Not now but at some point they may be able to offer free games for the pc with subscriptions. But that isn't the point. The reason your going to get third party game on the ms store instead of steam is so that you can play them with your xbox live friend s who may have scorpio or an xbox one. They want you to build that friend list and expand on it and stay in their eco system.

I have a 122 games right now on steam. I have 14 on Origin and 32 on GOG. my steam friend list is only 14 people. My xbox live friends list is at 43 right now. These are mostly people I know in real life and people who are on multiple times a day. The steam friends are random people that I've palyed different games with , some I haven't played with in years.


Sony has some good looking exclusies coming out in the next few years. But if neo is 4.4tflops or 5.5 and the xbox scorpio is 6 + tflops then multiplatform games will perform better. If its noticeable enough then consumers will buy that system. They will be part of xbox live which makes my enjoyment on my pc or my xbox one / scorpio that much better.

None of your arguments refute any of my points. You are not the target demographic MS needs to convince since you and your family/friends are already heavily into their ecosystem in every way, IIRC you are/were a big windows phone user aswell?

I dont think many big PC gamers have 3x the amount of friends on Xbox live compared to Steam. I mean Steam has 3x the amount of active users and Xbox One total numbers of units are like what? 20 million at the most?

If i love Nintendo and have convinced all my friends to buy WiiU and we all only use Nintendo, that doesnt actually mean Nintendo is just as popular with everyone else

You claim i will buy a third party title on MS store because my friends will be playing on Xbox, yet statistically they are more likely to be playing on PS4 based on sales. You believe Scorpio will change that but it would need to sell like hot cakes to change the demographics of the current landscape. It took Sony 3 years to hit 40 million units, you think Scorpio will reach that faster even though we are still in the middle of a console generation? The last generation was different, now a lot of people dont want to jump ship because they have a lot of games on PSN or Xbox live that they would lose if they switched

And again.. price! If MS is asking for 400 dollars for a smaller Xbox One then i would be shocked if Scorpio launches at 399

 

[Jay]

@davygee why is neo a ps4.5, but Scorpio is half assed next gen with backwards compatibility?(half assed as it can't have exclusives like you said)

as far as i can tell at the moment there pretty similar apart from power in terms of what there being marketed as.

if neo has very restrictive Dev requirements, then the neo version of games could be substantially worse than Scorpio, much more then it needs to be.
yet Scorpio is held back but neo isn't?

 

[Transponster]

If i absolutely had to say a number of New PS4 sales right now, it would be 40m LT.

I can't do something like that with Scorpio, because the biggest irony about it, is that it can easily end up being exactly what New PS4 is(not talking about gpu(-related), as it's not defining, at all), yet, MS had already positioned it differently.

 

[temesgen]

@davygee why is neo a ps4.5, but Scorpio is half assed next gen with backwards compatibility?(half assed as it can't have exclusives like you said)

as far as i can tell at the moment there pretty similar apart from power in terms of what there being marketed as.

if neo has very restrictive Dev requirements, then the neo version of games could be substantially worse than Scorpio, much more then it needs to be.
yet Scorpio is held back but neo isn't?

I'm not so sure about this, again if developers can use the work for the Windows 10 version of the game for the Scorpio version of the game we might very well see a tangible difference between Neo and Scorpio. In fact I'd be surprised if we didn't, there is little reason for MS to wait an extra year and incur a riskier higher price if games don't noticeably look better. VR does come to mind as a possible explanation but I believe MS has said VR was thought about after the fact (paraphrasing heavily).

 

[goonergaz]

@davygee why is neo a ps4.5, but Scorpio is half assed next gen with backwards compatibility?(half assed as it can't have exclusives like you said)

as far as i can tell at the moment there pretty similar apart from power in terms of what there being marketed as.

if neo has very restrictive Dev requirements, then the neo version of games could be substantially worse than Scorpio, much more then it needs to be.
yet Scorpio is held back but neo isn't?

IMHO it's the jump in power and likely cost difference, one seems more 'next gen jump' than the other.

 

[Jay]

I'm not so sure about this, again if developers can use the work for the Windows 10 version of the game for the Scorpio version of the game we might very well see a tangible difference between Neo and Scorpio.

Sounds like your agreeing with me, not disagreeing?

 

[temesgen]

Sounds like your agreeing with me, not disagreeing?

sorry I misunderstood that part of your post...

 

[Jay]

IMHO it's the jump in power and likely cost difference, one seems more 'next gen jump' than the other.

But if it's not allowed to have exclusives, then how it it next gen?
If going by power as the defining factor then has Nintendo only had a couple different gen consoles?
Going by cost? if Scorpio is say more than $100 more, does that really make it next gen?
Even put together doesn't make sense to me.

Shouldn't a gen be, when games on that gen can't run on the previous gen? At the moment, neither neo or Scorpio will have that.

If neo plays the same multi plats as Scorpio but at a lower res, why is one next gen but the other isn't?
All it is is a more expensive, power full machine in the same gen as each other.

 

[davygee]

@davygee why is neo a ps4.5, but Scorpio is half assed next gen with backwards compatibility?(half assed as it can't have exclusives like you said)

as far as i can tell at the moment there pretty similar apart from power in terms of what there being marketed as.

if neo has very restrictive Dev requirements, then the neo version of games could be substantially worse than Scorpio, much more then it needs to be.
yet Scorpio is held back but neo isn't?

Okay, my stance is this:

The Neo is basically a souped up PS4, yes it's a PS4.5, PS4K, PS4S or whatever you want to call it. Goung by rumours and reports, it's basically the same CPU , but at a higher clock speed, a new GPU that works out at 2.4 times the power of the current GPU in the PS4.

Why the Neo? Well I basically think this is being released to allow for primarily better looking/playing PSVR titles, and secondary it is being released to give the PS4 ecosystem more longevity.

I see nothing wrong with PS4 titles, I think they look and play great currently and will continue to do so for a good few years yet. What the Neo will do, is will make the VR titles look much better and will give the PS4 a better chance as lasting a little longer while titles still look great on it.

Now my stance on the Scorpio:

The Scorpio IMHO is a new generation. Microsoft, will leave the One behind at some point. Not sure when, but it won't be long. The One S, is Microsofts last throw of the dice to make the One work, if it doesn't sell really well and if they dont make up ground lost between them and PS4, then they will phase it out quicker than people expect.

Scorpio on paper is 4+ times the power of the One, it is being banded as a true 4k gaming console, which it probably wont be TBH. What it may do is 4K versions of One games at 30fps and thats it. The games won't have much more graphical fidelity other than resolution. My fear is that all this power for graphics and extra features will be lost if they have to link it to the lowest common denominator which is the Xbox One. This is the same with the PS4 and Neo, but the Neo is effectively just a PS4 with a bit more grunt.

Yes on paper, the Scorpio is considerably faster compared to the Neo, and it should look so much better.

 

[Jay]

Okay, my stance is this:

The Neo is basically a souped up PS4, yes it's a PS4.5, PS4K, PS4S or whatever you want to call it. Goung by rumours and reports, it's basically the same CPU , but at a higher clock speed, a new GPU that works out at 2.4 times the power of the current GPU in the PS4.

Why the Neo? Well I basically think this is being released to allow for primarily better looking/playing PSVR titles, and secondary it is being released to give the PS4 ecosystem more longevity.

I see nothing wrong with PS4 titles, I think they look and play great currently and will continue to do so for a good few years yet. What the Neo will do, is will make the VR titles look much better and will give the PS4 a better chance as lasting a little longer while titles still look great on it.

Now my stance on the Scorpio:

The Scorpio IMHO is a new generation. Microsoft, will leave the One behind at some point. Not sure when, but it won't be long. The One S, is Microsofts last throw of the dice to make the One work, if it doesn't sell really well and if they dont make up ground lost between them and PS4, then they will phase it out quicker than people expect.

Scorpio on paper is 4+ times the power of the One, it is being banded as a true 4k gaming console, which it probably wont be TBH. What it may do is 4K versions of One games at 30fps and thats it. The games won't have much more graphical fidelity other than resolution. My fear is that all this power for graphics and extra features will be lost if they have to link it to the lowest common denominator which is the Xbox One. This is the same with the PS4 and Neo, but the Neo is effectively just a PS4 with a bit more grunt.

Yes on paper, the Scorpio is considerably faster compared to the Neo, and it should look so much better.

It's just that most of what you said, seems to apply to both Imo.
e.g. in your list of neo names, ps4k is in it, as that was what it was being called during the initial rumor stage. I.e. a console that can do 4k, same as Scorpio. Basically both are higher end products putting out better visuals.

Scorpio is also being made and marketed for vr, but they never developed their own hmd so need enough power to support the ones available.

neo is twice the power of the ps4, so could also do a lot more if it's not hamstrung by having to support ps4 games.

The main difference for me is that Sony has a bigger share of people invested in their ecosystem and that Ms is playing catch up.And Sony getting their higher end product out first.

I also think down the line we will get Scorpio only games, but I also think that will also be the same for neo. Otherwise, neo could be missing out on multi plats that it could run (just at lower fidelity, maybe only have to blow up screen shots by 300% instead of 500% to see it), but won't because of dev restriction's.

I don't see either Sony or Ms forgoing bc (also expect a rolling forward compat), and they both seem to be moving in simular direction. When/if there is a next gen they will probably release at the same time or year difference at most.

 

[goonergaz]

I also think down the line we will get Scorpio only games, but I also think that will also be the same for neo. Otherwise, neo could be missing out on multi plats that it could run (just at lower fidelity, maybe only have to blow up screen shots by 300% instead of 500% to see it), but won't because of dev restriction's.

This is where the water muddies and why PS4&Neo work better as a team than XBO&Scorpio. Essentially one is held back more than the other (~2x vs ~4x).

I personally agree with PS4 & XBO games being dropped (slowly) when PS5/XB4 come out as I think Sony (and maybe MS) are going for an iPhone type model where 2 consoles will always be supported (with the 3rd console getting a withdrawal) - however I expect BC 'next gen' because of the whole digital purchasing eccosystem.

 

[davygee]

It's just that most of what you said, seems to apply to both Imo.
e.g. in your list of neo names, ps4k is in it, as that was what it was being called during the initial rumor stage. I.e. a console that can do 4k, same as Scorpio. Basically both are higher end products putting out better visuals.

Scorpio is also being made and marketed for vr, but they never developed their own hmd so need enough power to support the ones available.

neo is twice the power of the ps4, so could also do a lot more if it's not hamstrung by having to support ps4 games.

The main difference for me is that Sony has a bigger share of people invested in their ecosystem and that Ms is playing catch up.And Sony getting their higher end product out first.

I also think down the line we will get Scorpio only games, but I also think that will also be the same for neo. Otherwise, neo could be missing out on multi plats that it could run (just at lower fidelity, maybe only have to blow up screen shots by 300% instead of 500% to see it), but won't because of dev restriction's.

I don't see either Sony or Ms forgoing bc (also expect a rolling forward compat), and they both seem to be moving in simular direction. When/if there is a next gen they will probably release at the same time or year difference at most.

Yes, both the Neo and Scorpio are higher end products and both are limited due to all titles having to work on the original PS4 and One.

Its cross-compatibility within the same eco-system that will be the problem longterm.

Once every console is out (One, PS4, Neo & Scorpio) we will see that the One is at the bottom, performance-wise, while the Scorpio is at the top. The PS4 and Neo sit in the middle. The jump in power and potential to do more from the PS4 to the Neo is so much smaller compared to the jump from the One to the Scorpio. This is why I am saying that it will be more noticeable that the Scorpio will be held back because of the need to stay compatible with the One than the Neo will with the PS4.

 

[Jay]

This is where the water muddies and why PS4&Neo work better as a team than XBO&Scorpio. Essentially one is held back more than the other (~2x vs ~4x)

Or Scorpio has a better chance at being able to run xo games at 4k, or at a higher fidelity than neo does.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

So like I said , the ps4 will be an under performing product because it will never sell a 150m units like the ps2 did.

Only if you set the performance expectaions at the highest level. If you adopt this rationale then you are under performing if you are not performing as well as the best empoyee who ever worked for your company.

But fanboy expecations are not the measure of success of failure of a product, the measure will be whatever internal sales/revenue/profit target the manufacturer has.

 

[Jay]

Yes, both the Neo and Scorpio are higher end products and both are limited due to all titles having to work on the original PS4 and One.

Its cross-compatibility within the same eco-system that will be the problem longterm.

Once every console is out (One, PS4, Neo & Scorpio) we will see that the One is at the bottom, performance-wise, while the Scorpio is at the top. The PS4 and Neo sit in the middle. The jump in power and potential to do more from the PS4 to the Neo is so much smaller compared to the jump from the One to the Scorpio. This is why I am saying that it will be more noticeable that the Scorpio will be held back because of the need to stay compatible with the One than the Neo will with the PS4.

Ok, can see where you coming from here.
But if your talking multi plats, then someone has to have the lower and higher end products, just so happens Ms has both.
So games compared to the same family yes, you'll see a bigger difference between xo -> Scorpio compared to ps4 -> neo, but that might actually be a good thing.
But how much difference is there between xo & ps4, and neo & Scorpio?
Scorpio will be getting w10 games, where assets and settings are higher from the start.
People buy gpu's, knowing that games aren't really making full use of them, apart from the sort of differences you'll see between xo and Scorpio, framerate, res, effects.

 

[iroboto]

Anecdotes like this are statistical aberrations.

You claim again that a power advantage will make gamers switch platform... Did your family switch to PS4? Did you buy a PS4 because it was more powerful?

I imagine the goal for MS here is to reclaim Xbox users that left for PS4 because of more power (this number should be a great deal). Not sure how well they'll be able to pull long time PS users (probably not likely)




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[goonergaz]

Or Scorpio has a better chance at being able to run xo games at 4k, or at a higher fidelity than neo does.

Of course, I think you took my comment out of context...I just meant why people are thinking Scorpio is more of a 'next gen' and therefore held back more if it can't have exclusives whereas with PS4&Neo due to the smaller jump it's clearer the games are linked and it's not a next gen machine.

Only if you set the performance expectaions at the highest level. If you adopt this rationale then you are under performing if you are not performing as well as the best empoyee who ever worked for your company.

But fanboy expecations are not the measure of success of failure of a product, the measure will be whatever internal sales/revenue/profit target the manufacturer has.

I think he's comment must be taken out of context - the PS4 is Sonys fastest ever selling console so therefore whenever Sony decide to make their next move (and therefore impact the lifetimes sales of PS4) it can only be considered a success.

 

[GrimThorne]

But if it's not allowed to have exclusives, then how it it next gen?
If going by power as the defining factor then has Nintendo only had a couple different gen consoles?
Going by cost? if Scorpio is say more than $100 more, does that really make it next gen?
Even put together doesn't make sense to me.

Shouldn't a gen be, when games on that gen can't run on the previous gen? At the moment, neither neo or Scorpio will have that.

If neo plays the same multi plats as Scorpio but at a lower res, why is one next gen but the other isn't?
All it is is a more expensive, power full machine in the same gen as each other.

All it is? Quite honestly for the last two and half years this is all we've heard. Power! Frames! Resolution! Did all of those things suddenly become unimportant? Isn't this what gamers are constantly complaining about? Isn't better performance is what gamers asked for? All it is? Unless I've missed something gamers made it seem like these points were all that mattered. Even to the point of sacrificing everything else about gaming.

As for exclusives, adoption will have the greatest impact on this policy. Plain and Simple. This entire argument will be decided upon this one defining point.

Neo could take somewhat longer, naturally because the PS4 has the larger install base and still enjoys robust sales that quite honestly have it locking in close to 60% marketshare of the console gaming space. And aside from being the market leader they also have a very satisfied user base. It's not the same with Xbox One users, for them the Scorpio can't get here soon enough.

Scorpio could more easily eclipse the X1's install base. And that's probably because a considerable percentage of the X1 install base will very likely make a mass exodus to Scorpio when it becomes available. The X1' s community reaction to Scorpio was almost rabid and will probably fiercely adopt the better console if priced for serious market penetration. It may also as iroboto stated, bring back some of the Xbox base that fell by the way side after the backlash of 2013.

So exclusives will happen when the conditions are right for them.