Post Xbox One Two Scorpio, what should Sony do next? *spawn* (oh, and Nintendo?)

[AlNom]

8 core jaguar at 1.6/1.75 ghz to an 8 core zen + hyper threading (16 thread) at 2ghz or 2.5ghz would be a huge jump forward

It remains to be seen if Scorpio will be Zen (it's already going to be a big chip from the GPU-side alone).

Neo was effectively outed as an overclocked Jaguar, and only an extra ~31% clk increase.

What about Rops / Tmus doesn't the x1 have 8 ? So going to 64 or more would be a huge difference

XO is 4 RBE's (16 ROPs) and 48 (12*4) tex filter units
PS4 is 8 RBE's (32 ROPs) and 72 (18*4) tex filter units

GCN1 doesn't have it

Consoles are considered GCN2 ("1.1"), fyi.

 

[Rikimaru]

In all likelyhood Scorpio is equipped with an 8 core zen + hyperthreading, like you suggested but this is obvious.

It's obvious that just a dream. APU would be very large.

 

[Rangers]

The problem is, One and PS4 are now the base hardware - the minimum requirement with massive user bases. Ubisoft are not going to target Neo/Scorpio hardware for games because that game can't run the console that most people have. At least not until Scorpio/Neo overtake One/PS4 by which time the next-next-gen variants will emerge and the cycle will renew.

This is very much the downside of iterative evolving hardware platforms. You'll always have potential to do great things, but will still be held by by the lowest common denominator. At least with traditional console models there was a clean break.

The way they're talking though, I thought the idea was many consider there will never be another clean break "next gen"? I saw this news story recently how a news reporter asked Yoshida about PS5 and he kind of corrected the guy that there's no guarantee there will be a PS5 (though, execs have been threatening this for about 40 years to be fair, basically since games were invented).

It'll just be"Play station" and "Xbox" and I assume a new backwards/forwards compatible model maybe, every 2-3 years. The smartphone model.

Also, you dont need the userbase to surpass the old userbase, or even close, because there's a much smaller base of extremely active core gamers at any time. This is why XBO/PS4 ports were outselling their 360/PS3 counterparts when they were at a hugely smaller base. even now, XBO is probably at ~20 million and 360 at 84 million, yet XBO versions dominate sales for a while. You probably only need, 2-6 million consoles to move the "zetgeist" to the new box, if past console gen transitions are any indication. Then there's developers, they're going to love power and you're going to see Scorpio/Neo only versions sooner than later, if it's up to any devs. What better way to make your game stand out in a sea than making it look way better than all the other stuff, by breaking ties with the past (of course that cant work for every game).

Anyways, will be fascinating to see it all play out.

 

[function]

A multi chip module is a possibility I suppose: a Zen CPU connected to the GPU by that fast interconnect thing they're cooking up for servers. But then you have additional packaging costs and you gain latency and power requirements from the off chip connection. Might be faster to bring to market though ...?

Still hoping for simply a massive Zen APU personally, as 90 fps high fidelity VR on mainstream AAA titles with those itty bitty little Jaguar cores seems like a bit of a strain.

 

[Rangers]

Not going to get Zen kids...I believe the reasoning is sound in DF article.

 

[davygee]

For the moment, all Sony need to do is make sure that all PS4 games work on the Neo and that it doesn't require a small patch for it to work. They need to make sure that if consumers buy the Neo they can play all their PS4 games on the console. If they can do that, then Sony are fine.

Microsoft have effectively announced their Next Generation of Console, yes it works with all Xbox One games, but in short it's such a large leap that it has to be considered to be Next Gen. In addition to that, in 18 months time when Scorpio comes out they will want games that sell the system. There needs to be Exclusive Scorpio games to make people sit up and buy the device. Microsoft have also stated that in 18 months time, the Xbox One is dead. There is no other way to look at it.

Sony on the other hand is releasing a 2X powered PS4 that will allow for enhanced visuals. They have already stated that all games need to be developed for the PS4 first and foremost and developers can add extra effects and higher resoutions for the Neo version.

The big difference between Playstation and Xbox is that there are no real Exclusives for the Xbox now. It's all Xbox & Windows 10 Exclusive. So gamers that own a PC, will see no need to buy and Xbox as all the games will be cross platform. Playstation still has exclusives for the device. So you will have to buy a PS4 to play the game.

The way things are moving, it seems that over the next few years we will see numbers of Xbox Console owners going down, what we may see is those consumers that normally have both consoles will go for the Playstation and invest in a PC instead of getting an Xbox. So will the Scorpio be the last Xbox home console?

 

[function]

Not going to get Zen kids...I believe the reasoning is sound in DF article.

If 8 Zen cores on 14nm are around the size of 8 Jag cores on 28nm, it might.

Microsoft have also stated that in 18 months time, the Xbox One is dead. There is no other way to look at it.

There are other ways to look at it.

 

[temesgen]

For the moment, all Sony need to do is make sure that all PS4 games work on the Neo and that it doesn't require a small patch for it to work. They need to make sure that if consumers buy the Neo they can play all their PS4 games on the console. If they can do that, then Sony are fine.

Microsoft have effectively announced their Next Generation of Console, yes it works with all Xbox One games, but in short it's such a large leap that it has to be considered to be Next Gen. In addition to that, in 18 months time when Scorpio comes out they will want games that sell the system. There needs to be Exclusive Scorpio games to make people sit up and buy the device. Microsoft have also stated that in 18 months time, the Xbox One is dead. There is no other way to look at it.

Sony on the other hand is releasing a 2X powered PS4 that will allow for enhanced visuals. They have already stated that all games need to be developed for the PS4 first and foremost and developers can add extra effects and higher resoutions for the Neo version.

The big difference between Playstation and Xbox is that there are no real Exclusives for the Xbox now. It's all Xbox & Windows 10 Exclusive. So gamers that own a PC, will see no need to buy and Xbox as all the games will be cross platform. Playstation still has exclusives for the device. So you will have to buy a PS4 to play the game.

The way things are moving, it seems that over the next few years we will see numbers of Xbox Console owners going down, what we may see is those consumers that normally have both consoles will go for the Playstation and invest in a PC instead of getting an Xbox. So will the Scorpio be the last Xbox home console?

MS is bluring the meaning of console moving forward so I'm not sure exclusive means what it used to besides with the exception of a few tent pole titles has the Xbox platform truly been defined by exclusives? I'd argue that quality third party support - both in terms of DLC launching on XBox first and additional features and graphic superiority historically are what Xbox stood for prior to the XB1.

Sony can't really compete in that regard (becoming platform agnostic) unless we see Sony leverage Playstation Now to include AAA PS4 titles being streamed to tablets, TVs, Blu Ray players and the like.

Frankly there are pros to both opportunities, many PC gamers will like having access to Xbox titles cross platform and many prefer to game from the couch so tablets, TVs and so on could really help Sony increase the size of their market. That said MS is much further along if comments and announcements mean anything. Frankly if Sony isn't careful they could find themselves fighting a battle on multiple fronts where the metrics we've all look to, namely install base are increasing less easy to define much less count for their biggest rival and the sheer size of MS overall footprint overwhelms them.

 

[Jubei]

AMDs leaked roadmap showed the successor to Beema APU (Basilisk) uses only two Zen cores at 14nm. Its highly unlikely MS manages to fit in 4 of those plus a beefy GPU and GDDR5X clocked high in a console format

Im not even sure how that would work with uarch compatibility. My guess is both MS and Sony go with Puma, it draws less power than Jaguar at 28nm

 

[Rikimaru]

I think MS calculated Scorpio flops as Polaris 10 at 1266MHz (RX480 boost clock) + 8x Jaguar CPU flops. It's over 6TF a little.

 

[Michellstar]

I think MS calculated Scorpio flops as Polaris 10 at 1266MHz (RX480 boost clock) + 8x Jaguar CPU flops. It's a little over 6TF.

I don´t think it is like this for two reasons, first those clocks are for dGPUs not apus with limited TDP and of course the integrated cores. (480 is rated at 150w max), yes I know they could raise the TDP of the system, going back to ps360 era. And the second reason, why holidays 2017? if its based on Polaris, It could be here much sooner

That´s how I see it.

On a side note, they didn´t disclose CPU family or RAM amount, just in case, the cpu could be another reason of the delay

 

[turkey]

A multi chip module is a possibility I suppose: a Zen CPU connected to the GPU by that fast interconnect thing they're cooking up for servers. But then you have additional packaging costs and you gain latency and power requirements from the off chip connection. Might be faster to bring to market though ...?

Still hoping for simply a massive Zen APU personally, as 90 fps high fidelity VR on mainstream AAA titles with those itty bitty little Jaguar cores seems like a bit of a strain.

This may be crazy but what about a mix of cores similar to arm big little.

4 Zen and 4 jaguar?

Why do all cores have to be equal.

Better single thread performance option, along with a lower die size and keeping parallel options and easier mapping to old Xbox one titles.

 

[Globalisateur]

I don´t think it is like this for two reasons, first those clocks are for dGPUs not apus with limited TDP and of course the integrated cores. (480 is rated at 150w max), yes I know they could raise the TDP of the system, going back to ps360 era. And the second reason, why holidays 2017? if its based on Polaris, It could be here much sooner

That´s how I see it.

On a side note, they didn´t disclose CPU family or RAM amount, just in case, the cpu could be another reason of the delay

If Scorpio is a last minute decision taken the beginning of this year (reaction from Neo leaks or a bit before) then it could explain the holidays 2017 date even using old Polaris tech.

But why target only 6tflops for such release date? They are releasing Scorpio maybe one year after Neo and it's only going to be ~40% faster? It's either too early or too late IMO. they should have taken the opportunity to release a new better console the year 16nm was available, like Neo, or wait another year or two to wait for much better specs, more so considering it's their real next gen not like the PS4.5 that is Neo.

To me It really looks like they were surprised by the Neo leaks and the alleged early 2016 release of the Sony machine.

 

[Michellstar]

If Scorpio is a last minute decision taken the beginning of this year (reaction from Neo leaks or a bit before) then it could explain the holidays 2017 date even using old Polaris tech.

But why target only 6tflops for such release date? They are releasing Scorpio maybe one year after Neo and it's only going to be ~40% faster? It's either too early or too late IMO. they should have taken the opportunity to release a new better console the year 16nm was available, like Neo, or wait another year or two to wait for much better specs, more so considering it's their real next gen not like the PS4.5 that is Neo.

To me It really looks like they were surprised by the Neo leaks and the alleged early 2016 release of the Sony machine.

We don´t know yet, and I don´t think it´s a knee jerk reaction for both parties, AMD must have presented the opportunity to both companies at the same time, So who Knows the reasoning for the change or who did it first.

The rationale for Sony could be VR, and for MS could have been the power deficit.

Anyway, we don´t know yet all of the story, if Neo it´s launching this Fall or next year, and what´s in the box for both consoles.

 

[loekf]

If Scorpio is a last minute decision taken the beginning of this year (reaction from Neo leaks or a bit before) then it could explain the holidays 2017 date even using old Polaris tech.

But why target only 6tflops for such release date? They are releasing Scorpio maybe one year after Neo and it's only going to be ~40% faster? It's either too early or too late IMO. they should have taken the opportunity to release a new better console the year 16nm was available, like Neo, or wait another year or two to wait for much better specs, more so considering it's their real next gen not like the PS4.5 that is Neo.

To me It really looks like they were surprised by the Neo leaks and the alleged early 2016 release of the Sony machine.

So you're saying Sony still has the upper edge here:

Gamescom 2016: announce 4-5 TF Neo, launch window December 2016 ?
E3 2017: MS details Scorpio, launches US December 2017, rest of the world Q1 2018
E3 2018: Sony details PS4 "Neo refresh" in 10 nm process, 8 TF, in shop Dec 2018

Nightmare for developers if you ask me. They have to develop for 5 "permutations" of the AMD console APU arch in the next 2-3 years.

 

[London Geezer]

2 year refreshes is a bit of a push.

Try as they might, they are not mobile phones (which people now upgrade less and less often as time goes by).

Most people just don't care as much.

 

[Globalisateur]

So you're saying Sony still has the upper edge here:

Gamescom 2016: announce 4-5 TF Neo, launch window December 2016 ?
E3 2017: MS details Scorpio, launches US December 2017, rest of the world Q1 2018
E3 2018: Sony details PS4 "Neo refresh" in 10 nm process, 8 TF, in shop Dec 2018

Nightmare for developers if you ask me. They have to develop for 5 "permutations" of the AMD console APU arch in the next 2-3 years.

Yes they have. Also I think they'll wait at least 3 whole years before releasing Neo's successor (it's not too long, not too short). And the smart thing to do is to release a console right when the latest tech (here 16nm) is available. So they'll release PS5 (or Neo 2 whatever) just when 10nm (or 7nm) is available for holidays. Not one whole year after.

 

[goonergaz]

The gap between Xbox 360 and PS3 was slight resolultion difference and slightly more framerate dips generally on PS3. On the PS4 its the reverse, slightly more stable framerates and slightly sharper looking image.

30 vs 60 difference could easily be the difference between Neo and Scorpio in a plethora of the favorite games you play (GTA6, RDR2, Cyberpunk 2077, Elderscrolls 6, Battlefield, Need for Speed, next Farcry, next AC, next Batman Arkham, etc.

Based on what exactly? That's 100% difference, double. The Scorpio is not double anything let alone the whole part.

 

[goonergaz]

2 year refreshes is a bit of a push.

Try as they might, they are not mobile phones (which people now upgrade less and less often as time goes by).

Most people just don't care as much.

Yes, I thought 3 years was acceptable which is why I said 2019 (with Neo launching this year)

 

[Jay]

I think that ms and sony's machines where planned for their own reasons.

not as direct response to what the other is doing.

ms reasoning is that they want a 4k, vr capable machine.
maybe they think next year is when that would be needed by, and cost effective by then. After that who knows when the next major change will occur.

Sony, wants a more capable vr machine, and may just be financially better of making neo than going for a slim, 2 birds one stone. And in their eyes, how much do they need a slim when they can get a higher return from the neo most probably.

just so happens they both are happening around the same time, not that surprising really though